Crossroads: Sell P3D- and Invest in TSLA?

[Spacep0d]

Hello Teslarati!

Okay, so I waited two years to get a Tesla. I was able to secure a brand new 2020 Tesla Model 3 P3D- in white, and it has less than 1400 miles on it. This is not a sales thread though.

Here's what I'm thinking about and your educated and wise opinions are welcomed;

I'm a new investor in TSLA. We've all enjoyed its growth and I have 36 shares. I would love to have more shares before the price goes up too high, though I think many of us expect a correction some time after December 21at. But who knows!

I love my car to pieces. It's AMAZING and I've already had the windows tinted with 35% ceramic IR for heat-rejection.

However, during the pandemic and with work-at-home in full effect and L.A. about to go into another lockdown, I feel like I am not using the car or the money I've spent on the car to full effect. While it's my dream to have a Tesla Model 3 and I've done that, I'm also thinking about selling it (especially since it's a rarer Performance Stealth) and investing that mostly in to TSLA and a little bit into home upgrades.

The other wrinkle is that my girlfriend now owns a gorgeous 2020 Model 3 AWD LR in Midnight Silver Metallic, and I could use that car for errands and such for no charge. I pay more of the bills so she's not worried about the insurance cost (and I pay for her healthcare myself).

Am I crazy to keep a car like this during a pandemic given the TSLA stock investment window and considering that I'm working from home full-time with the use of another Tesla as I need it? I would probably spring for the acceleration boost in her car, so I'd lose little in the way of acceleration....one of the main reasons I bought the P3D-.

My goal is to make enough to have some financial freedom, and that means moving in to a slightly larger home (with real charging capability) and then pay that off. My charging here also sucks as some of you know, so with one Tesla and trickle charging it would work out fine since my girlfriend doesn't have to work for the foreseeable future. Even if she does work it'll be part time and local.

With the work I do, work-from-home is easy and I've been working remotely all year long. Even if I had to go to an office it would probably only be a couple times a week (30 miles to L.A.) or once a month maybe, but I would negotiate to keep it mostly WFH. I'm a 3D artist so it's not like I need to be anywhere in person. I'm also hard-of-hearing so I do much better with text or amplified sound through headphones anyway. So, WFH finally puts me on a level playing field.

What say you, TMC? Thanks in advance for your insights and feedback!

 

[moa999]

The car will stay with you

The shares might go up, they might go down.

 

[Spacep0d]

The car will stay with you

The shares might go up, they might go down.

This is true. I assume there will be a correction for a dip I'd like to buy. It's just a matter of how much. If they don't go down, good problem to have! I'm not hoping one way or another but I'm thinking about how to best use my resources while I work-from-home.

 

[chrstna4]

Reading a lot about TSLA and the S&P inclusion, I get the sense the price will rise through December and then readjust after the new year through March. If you read PapaFox’s daily stock post, you likely know how the stock price is being manipulated for various reasons and that can be somewhat predicable on a short term basis. My financial advisor told me this, “If buying the stock at whatever price helps you sleep better at night, do it. If you’re doing it for fear of missing out, think about it more.” I believe in Tesla and plan to keep my stock long term so buying some a little high will likely not have a huge impact, especially if it splits and/or I can time selling to when it’s above my buy price.
That said, you might want to weigh how much the car has depreciated and what it would cost to buy another car later, if you wanted your own car again. It sounds like your WFH situation is pretty stable and you have ready access to a car. Before kids, my son’s dad and I lived for over a decade with one car and it was rarely a hardship. If you think long term about the stock and the car and it still feels like the right move (and helps you sleep at night), you’re probably making the right decision for you.

 

[Spacep0d]

Reading a lot about TSLA and the S&P inclusion, I get the sense the price will rise through December and then readjust after the new year through March. If you read PapaFox’s daily stock post, you likely know how the stock price is being manipulated for various reasons and that can be somewhat predicable on a short term basis. My financial advisor told me this, “If buying the stock at whatever price helps you sleep better at night, do it. If you’re doing it for fear of missing out, think about it more.” I believe in Tesla and plan to keep my stock long term so buying some a little high will likely not have a huge impact, especially if it splits and/or I can time selling to when it’s above my buy price.
That said, you might want to weigh how much the car has depreciated and what it would cost to buy another car later, if you wanted your own car again. It sounds like your WFH situation is pretty stable and you have ready access to a car. Before kids, my son’s dad and I lived for over a decade with one car and it was rarely a hardship. If you think long term about the stock and the car and it still feels like the right move (and helps you sleep at night), you’re probably making the right decision for you.

Well said, chrstna4!

Yes, I keep thinking about how rarely I use my car, how much I could get for it (given Tesla's resale value and the rarity of the P3D-), how interested I am in having a greater TSLA position, and I am holding long regardless. For sure I know about the MMs manipulating the stock and I read the investor thread every day, along with watching Dave Lee's videos and SMR too. Occasionally I catch some blurb through news aggregators as well.

If I didn't have ready-access to a nice Tesla Model 3 AWD LR I'd probably not be so amenable to this, but my life would be impacted very little if I sold my car other than having a much better position with TSLA.

For my long-range goals....upgrading our house from a townhome to a single-family home, buying a Tesla later when I really need it, and considering my stable WFH home job, all roads lead to 'selling' my P3D- for now. Also, if the job wasn't stable it would be good to have a little backup anyway, but the job's pretty darned stable and I'm not planning on leaving. I actually love what I do and the company too. RHYMES!

I picture myself as already having made this move and well, I'd be very happy about it. I'm also ecstatic every time I get to drive my vehicle but it's few and far between these days, and my girlfriend's brand new 2020 AWD M3 is gorgeous. The only thing I'd add is acceleration boost for 2k, haha. She's not quite as....enthusiastic...a driver as me but I think she'd enjoy it too on occasion.

Another side benefit would be more room in the garage for one vehicle. If I really needed a vehicle I could rent a Tesla on TURO for a week or something, and the ride share services fill a lot of gaps too.

 

[moa999]

get the sense the price will rise through December and then readjust after the new year through March.

No share price is predictable.

The market has known about Tesla's likely inclusion in the S&P500 for many months. The only question was exact timing - that is now known. Big funds will be pre-positioned with hedges in palace.

Tesla is however priced for perfection. Any negative news could crater the share price and much of the growth in new Giga factories is baked in.
Unlike the FANGs I don't think electric car manufacture is a natural monopoly.

 

[Mr X]

If you do get rid of your car, hopefully nothing bad happens between you and your GF, because then you'll really be out of car lol


TSLA stock is still on discount. If you think it's high now, wait until you see the price of a share in 10 years. Remember, Tesla is a dozen starts up in one. They will become the most valuable company in the world very soon. The future price per share will be nuts. The stock has already made tons of people hundred thousandaires and millionaires and will continue to.


I drive the crap out of my car so I'm not getting rid of mine to buy more shares.


But if you're good with getting rid of it to buy more stonk then go for it. If everything goes as planned you should be able to afford a Roadster within the decade. Not a bad trade off

No share price is predictable.

The market has known about Tesla's likely inclusion in the S&P500 for many months. The only question was exact timing - that is now known. Big funds will be pre-positioned with hedges in palace.

Tesla is however priced for perfection. Any negative news could crater the share price and much of the growth in new Giga factories is baked in.
Unlike the FANGs I don't think electric car manufacture is a natural monopoly.

Ya, not sure if Tesla will be worth 10,000 or 40,000 in 2030. Either way, I'll be rich

 

[Spacep0d]

If you do get rid of your car, hopefully nothing bad happens between you and your GF, because then you'll really be out of car lol


TSLA stock is still on discount. If you think it's high now, wait until you see the price of a share in 10 years. Remember, Tesla is a dozen starts up in one. They will become the most valuable company in the world very soon. The future price per share will be nuts. The stock has already made tons of people hundred thousandaires and millionaires and will continue to.


I drive the crap out of my car so I'm not getting rid of mine to buy more shares.


But if you're good with getting rid of it to buy more stonk then go for it. If everything goes as planned you should be able to afford a Roadster within the decade. Not a bad trade off




Ya, not sure if Tesla will be worth 10,000 or 40,000 in 2030. Either way, I'll be rich

Oh, I am very keenly aware of where Tesla will be in 5-10 years, and I don't care about short-term volatility at all. This is why I want to sell the car and invest MORE.

I would love a Roadster 2.0!

 

[Spacep0d]

No share price is predictable.

The market has known about Tesla's likely inclusion in the S&P500 for many months. The only question was exact timing - that is now known. Big funds will be pre-positioned with hedges in palace.

Tesla is however priced for perfection. Any negative news could crater the share price and much of the growth in new Giga factories is baked in.
Unlike the FANGs I don't think electric car manufacture is a natural monopoly.

I'm not worried about short-term volatility at all. I'm holding long (10 year time horizon) and I will buy the dips too!

 

[Spacep0d]

If you do get rid of your car, hopefully nothing bad happens between you and your GF, because then you'll really be out of car lol

Great point. We've been together going on 23 years (not married, no plans to marry) and we own a home together. So, I think we're pretty stable but others wouldn't know that necessarily. Even if something happened and I needed to get another car I could easily do that just from my credit/salary (lease or own). So, good point but not a factor at the moment!

I'm also the reason she has a Tesla from proximity/influence, and I got her to buy 45 shares of TSLA too for which she's already realized gains. She's happy to let me borrow her car here and there, and I probably won't even have to think about an occasional commute until mid 2021. Happy to reassess at that time.

 

[kbecks13]

I would love to have more shares before the price goes up too high

Define "too high". Many people say Tesla will be bigger and bigger in 10 years, but i'm not sure how you arrive at a target valuation. They already have a market cap larger than the biggest automakers and solar companies combined, so i personally wouldn't invest at these levels even though there is definitely some short term pressure.

I will probably be wrong, but i personally can't rationally determine a target market cap for TSLA that isn't much lower than where we're at today so i don't invest even though i absolutely love the car.

 

[Spacep0d]

Define "too high". Many people say Tesla will be bigger and bigger in 10 years, but i'm not sure how you arrive at a target valuation. They already have a market cap larger than the biggest automakers and solar companies combined, so i personally wouldn't invest at these levels even though there is definitely some short term pressure.

I will probably be wrong, but i personally can't rationally determine a target market cap for TSLA that isn't much lower than where we're at today so i don't invest even though i absolutely love the car.

All I mean is that the higher it goes, the less I can buy. I'm happy for it to keep going up too. I'm not trying to time anything but I think my money might be better spent in TSLA than Tesla right now, at least until such time as I need to drive more than I do now.

Whatever happens, I'm in TSLA for the long-term. I'm not worried about the price so I guess it doesn't really matter. In this thread I'm just getting feedback as to what people think about this plan given that I'm pretty solidly working from home and have access to a Tesla Model 3 for errands. So, I won't be in complete withdrawal, or not as much as if my girlfriend drove a Daihatsu Charade or something.

 

[BioFarmer]

How about this one?

• Keep the car.
• Buy FSD.
• Let the car go work and earn the money on Tesla Network.
• Rebuild the house with money earned by Tesla Network.
• Use the car when needed.

Sounds crazy? But it really could be an idea, if you believe it will come true!
So this is my intention. I feel, you at this moment just follow your believes.

I think, when you bought the M3 P3D, it was the right choice at that moment. And now you are hesitating already about the choice you made that moment, because you suddenly believe the stock is the better choice? Why didn't you invest into stocks 4 month ago?

That looks to me like you are not really in long term choices. How you want to be able to keep those stocks for 5 to 10 years? And are you ready for an unexpected situation (Pregnancy, earthquick, unemployment, black monday stock drop)? Do you have some savings aside? I suggest to talk to your loved one and make the choice together.

I am in my 50th, I own some TSLA stocks and I am quiet happy with it. But I own them for very long already. And it never was money of my basic need level. The money I bought stocks was the money I was ready to loose. And a completelly loss would not influence my life style and personal situation.

So my advice: Do invest in stocks, but only the part of money that will not hurt you if you loose it.

 

[SageBrush]

I picture myself as already having made this move and well, I'd be very happy about it.

Sounds to me like you bought too much car (money wise) and you are hoping that TSLA will fix things for you.
How much depreciation are you going to lose, as a percentage of your purchase cost ? How quickly do you think TSLA is going to make it up ?

Presuming TSLA appreciation of over 10% annually is wishful thinking. Not that it cannot happen, just that it is gambling to presume it will be so.

 

[McMoo]

I recommend not having more than 5% of your total net worth invested in a single company. Diversify and don’t speculate.

 

[one2many]

What in the name of Gin and tonic are we talking about.
Sell your house and move in with mon and dad. Go to blackjack
school and hang out in Vegas? Go to day trading school?
There are a lot of supper duper smart folks here, but I would not
take stock tips from the Pope himself. Go to a finical adviser or
better yet an investment bank. Run this by them.
Sorry, early happy hour, got to buzz off.

 

[Saturday]

I can’t help but feel that not only is Tesla’s current success already priced-in but also a lot of future success as well. I’m looking at a medium term pullback, especially if the entire market moves that way sometime next year. Looks bubbly.

if there is a pullback or a dip, I would def buy and maybe you want to be ready for that. however the current price seems a bit much at the moment.

I would invest in real estate in a growing region or some other asset than the stock market right now.

 

[stonelance]

Probably better off trying to invest a fixed amount per month to get dollar cost averaging. If you don't have the extra disposable income right now then maybe try renting the car via Turo and then use that to invest. I bet robo taxi is still a couple years off from being viable, but eventually that would be an option instead of Turo.

 

[holmgang]

If are bullish and want to participate in TSLAs appreciation — and that’s a big if — but short on cash, you could sell put options using your account as collateral and/or buy shares on margin.

I’m not suggesting that you do this. I’m saying you can do this, without having to sell your car.

 

[Apone]

This could not be any simpler in my single view. You have another car and you work from home. You are questioning the purchase and what you are getting out of it. Depreciation aside, if it’s a lose situation for you, cut losses and use the money on an appreciating asset (not tsla per say). A car is not an investment, I don’t see any robotaxi thing happening for a while nor would I send my car out to do it. You sound like you are developing a good financial sense. It’s what let you get this car and it will let you get another if you listen to it and build wealth intelligently. As another said, I would not get financial advice on a car forum. You will find people who like cars or at least this car. See previous statement about cars being reverse investments. Just my .02