@madodel I will address soon. I'm writing now.
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Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts
- Thread starter Papafox
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- elon is an ass TSLA
Today the shoe was on the other foot as longs received the option-expiration delta-hedging tailwinds. Three events likely touched off the significant (3%) climb of TSLA today:
* Half of yesterday's losses were just gamesmanship by the shorts in the low-volume closing hours of market trading. The market was more than willing to take these gains back and consider them a discount for buying TSLA
* Broader markets were up significantly today, especially the NASDAQ. Dow was helped by bank stocks and a Brexit scheduled vote by Parliament while NASDAQ benefited most from good Netflix news. TSLA's early morning steep climb mirrored the NASDAQ's performance for the first 40 minutes after opening bell.
* At least in my TSLA news feed, Cathie Woods' positive statements about Tesla on CNBC led the list, topping all the piles of negative, steaming horsesugar that Business Insider and similar companies regularly deposit into the news feeds
Note: I think the volume indications on the chart above between 2:00pm and 3:00pm are in error because looking at individual minutes of trading I cannot confirm such big volumes at a time when high volumes are very uncommon.
the NASDAQ got off to a rousing start, which awkened the TSLA bulls. NASDAQ closed up 1.71% on Netflix news of coming monthly service price increases.
Short percentage of TSLA selling dropped all the way down to 51% today
Meanwhile, you can see that covering with TSLA has slackened since the beginning of the year but the price increases haven't
Looking at the tech chart, you can see that TSLA is looking healthy again with the SP above the 50 day moving average. Notice the diving upper bb. We might need the 4Q ER to bust through it.
Today's trading erased most of the losses from yesterday's trading. I continue to believe that macros will play an important role this week in trading because shorts are willing to really manipulate harder than normal this week when they see macros down, due to the delta-hedging tailwind. An important part of the macro picture is how the NASDAQ performs throughout the day. Shorts were ready to turn the NASDAQ's 2:00pm dip into a dip on steroids, but the NASDAQ reversed and started climbing into the close, which totally messed up the strategy. The best case for longs is the NASDAQ rising slowly throughout the day. The worst case for longs is poor macros and a descent into close. As the end of the week approaches, the 340-350 range that market makers prefer may become a more powerful influence on TSLA, with a real fight if we go into Friday afternoon and the SP is close to either 340 or 350. The week will indeed be interesting due to the extra volatility that Friday's mega-option-expiration throws into the equation.
Conditions:
* Dow up 156 (0.65%)
* NASDAQ up 118 (1.71%)
* TSLA 344.43, up 10.03 (3.00%)
* TSLA volume 6.0M shares
* Oil 52.00, up 1.49 (2.95%)
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 51%
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I'll take an ~$80 increase for each ~8 million shares covered. That would bring the price to ~$594.
Of course that probably isn't going to happen any time soon, if ever.
Looking at Dusaniwsky's chart, it looks like there was a bump up in short interest around Jan 8-9 and then the short interest returned to early January levels. I think Dusaniwsky's statement includes the dip from that bump, but if you look at the whole month the short interest is much flatter.
Yes, it's typically a couple hours after close before we get the % of selling by shorts data.
You can always check it yourself at tsla | Volumebot
No big surprise today to those of us who watch TSLA regularly. The lame MMD at opening was quickly dispatched and with the NASDAQ climbing like a hot air balloon on steroids, so was TSLA. Overall, TSLA responded to the NASDAQ's ups and downs but in exaggerated fashion. Notice the multiple times TSLA bounced off 350 today. I can't tell you if it is shorts or sellers of the 350 calls that expire on Friday who are responsible, but so far we see TSLA settling into the 340-350 zone this week where market makers will be happiest.
Regarding the cliff-dive that TSLA did into close, this also should be no surprise. If shorts see an opportunity to push down into close, they'll take it, especially this week with delta-hedging tailwinds. With the NASDAQ's dip around 3:30pm, that was excuse enough and shortie sold hand over fist to engineer a late day dip into close. Why do I suspect shortie? First, it's one of his signature moves. Second, I see lots of evidence of the day-shorts covering in the final minute of market trading (nearly 169K in 1 minute). Plus, look at 4:01pm-5K shares traded, 4:02pm-4.8K shares, and 4:09pm-7K shares traded. One or two of these might be late prints, but they look close enough to close that I suspect the shorts who engineered the end of day dip were doing everything they could to get out in case tomorrow morning looks like this morning.
The NASDAQ closed up slightly at 0.15%
Yep, Shortie is tagged with 58% of TSLA selling today, which makes sense when you consider the effort needed to engineer the dip in the final 15 minutes of market trading.
All in all, we're still on track to close between 340 and 350 this week, which is fine, although I'd like to be very close to 350 if given the choice. Every week brings us just that much closer to the 4Q ER. A slow climb up until the ER is a great way to set things up for the news that will hopefully come our way.
Latest news (thanks @KarenRei ) is that Glovis Cosmos, capable of hauling 6,000 vehicles, has just pulled into Pier 80 in San Francisco. All aboard!
Conditions:
* Dow up 141 (0.59%)
* NASDAQ up 11 (0.15%)
* TSLA 346.05, up 1.62 (0.47%)
* TSLA volume 4.7M shares
* Oil 52.26
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 58%
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Anyone know how long it takes to ship a load of Teslas from SF to China and/or Europe? Be nice to know when that ship unloads.
I calculated before based on Glovis Captains average speed of 15mph it would take 28 days, including some delay in the Panama Canal. Tracking Glovis Captain since it’s left SFO it has averaged faster than 15mph so I would say somewhere between 20-28 days SFO to Europe.
SFO to Hong Kong at 15mph would be 19 days.
A short course on how TSLA short-sellers can be tagged with 58% of TSLA selling on a trading day such as Wednesday's.
1) It's not 58% of selling- Because of batching, the actual percentage of selling is unknown but considered to be significantly less than 58%. We see at Apple where 1% of shares are shorted that the number can exceed 50% on days. The reason for such a high number at Apple is both the batching issue (where an entire batch of sales by a brokerage house is tagged as "short" if a single short transaction is included, and because in normal day to day operations shorting is often used as an expedited way of keeping brokerage houses in balance with sales and purchases so that they are not taking on undo risk.
2) There exist short-selling manipulators that sell and cover often, sometimes multiple times during a day. You have a pretty good idea when someone is selling to manipulate the price downward when the selling is in large numbers per minute (like above 20K shares) and yet there is no news or macro movements to support that selling. In the case of a dip on steroids, the selling is far out of proportion to the size of the macro movement. By the next morning we see that short interest has remained unchanged, so short-selling to increase one's short position was not the reason. That leaves shorting with covering the same day, and if we don't see the big buying (covering) clumps per minute we can assume that the manipulative shorts are selling in big clumps to trigger the algobots to join in and perhaps even fishing for triggering stop-loss orders placed by newbies to TSLA trading.but they're covering with slower buying which does not trigger market reactions. A favorite time for short manipulators to cover is in the final minute of market trading each day, when their buying does not substantially change the stock price for the day. We've seen hundreds of thousands of TSLA shares trade in the final minute, and most are likely to be shorts covering (either to reduce short interest or to end a day's manipulation session).
3) Sometimes the short manipulators cannot cover by end of day and short interest takes a momentary increase. Such was likely the case on Wednesday when we saw huge selling in the final minute of market trading and in three specific minutes of trading shortly after close. Those big sales in after-market trading are clues that the shorts weren't able to cover their daily manipulations because the big manipulation took place right before market close. If we look at the numbers provided in the Short-sight email by Ihor Dusaniwsky's S3 Partners, we see that short interest increased from 20.02% to 20.15% yesterday. With each 1% roughly equivalent to 1.28 million shares, we saw a net increase in short interest of 153,600 shares. That's a lot of shares that will be covered most likely the next day. Alas, the shorts had good reason to try covering before end of day because as with several days this week, the SP on Thursday ran up noticeably shortly after opening.
1) It's not 58% of selling- Because of batching, the actual percentage of selling is unknown but considered to be significantly less than 58%. We see at Apple where 1% of shares are shorted that the number can exceed 50% on days. The reason for such a high number at Apple is both the batching issue (where an entire batch of sales by a brokerage house is tagged as "short" if a single short transaction is included, and because in normal day to day operations shorting is often used as an expedited way of keeping brokerage houses in balance with sales and purchases so that they are not taking on undo risk.
2) There exist short-selling manipulators that sell and cover often, sometimes multiple times during a day. You have a pretty good idea when someone is selling to manipulate the price downward when the selling is in large numbers per minute (like above 20K shares) and yet there is no news or macro movements to support that selling. In the case of a dip on steroids, the selling is far out of proportion to the size of the macro movement. By the next morning we see that short interest has remained unchanged, so short-selling to increase one's short position was not the reason. That leaves shorting with covering the same day, and if we don't see the big buying (covering) clumps per minute we can assume that the manipulative shorts are selling in big clumps to trigger the algobots to join in and perhaps even fishing for triggering stop-loss orders placed by newbies to TSLA trading.but they're covering with slower buying which does not trigger market reactions. A favorite time for short manipulators to cover is in the final minute of market trading each day, when their buying does not substantially change the stock price for the day. We've seen hundreds of thousands of TSLA shares trade in the final minute, and most are likely to be shorts covering (either to reduce short interest or to end a day's manipulation session).
3) Sometimes the short manipulators cannot cover by end of day and short interest takes a momentary increase. Such was likely the case on Wednesday when we saw huge selling in the final minute of market trading and in three specific minutes of trading shortly after close. Those big sales in after-market trading are clues that the shorts weren't able to cover their daily manipulations because the big manipulation took place right before market close. If we look at the numbers provided in the Short-sight email by Ihor Dusaniwsky's S3 Partners, we see that short interest increased from 20.02% to 20.15% yesterday. With each 1% roughly equivalent to 1.28 million shares, we saw a net increase in short interest of 153,600 shares. That's a lot of shares that will be covered most likely the next day. Alas, the shorts had good reason to try covering before end of day because as with several days this week, the SP on Thursday ran up noticeably shortly after opening.
I think this week the people who sold the sugarload of puts and calls that expire on Friday will work especially hard to see TSLA close somewhere between 340 and 350. I think 350 can be in play next week, once this monster of an options expiration Friday is behind us. Until then, I personally wouldn't buy any 350 weekly calls (but hope I'm wrong).
The NASDAQ gained 0.71% on Thursday
I'm writing below the NASDAQ chart because I want to keep the TSLA and NASDAQ charts as close together as possible for comparison purposes.
The day began with a small mandatory morning dip to get TSLA below the previous day's close. When the NASDAQ lifted slightly above the green, though, TSLA climbed $4, but twice bounced its head off the $350 virtual ceiling that has been in place all week. The NASDAQ traded almost level until about 2:30pm, but look at the gyrations TSLA took as low volume allowed shorts to briefly push TSLA into the red, where it could not be held. No obvious bad news was at work here as Tesla news has been generally positive this week.
At about 2:37pm TSLA started climbing fast, mirroring the NASDAQ's climb on remarks that suggested progress with the China trade war, but shortly thereafter that optimism was shown as overplayed and the NASDAQ quickly lost much of its climb before recovering about 2/3rds of the climb into close. Now look at TSLA to see the mischief engineered by our friends the shorts. TSLA actually descended below the price at which the good news began as shorts sold like crazy to engineer a dip on steroids. TSLA recovered from the oversale but was capped at 248 so that it would not continue climbing with the rest of the NASDAQ and then for good measure the shorts gave a small bump down into close. Volume was an unusually light 3.7 million shares.
The big picture is that we've seen LOTS of manipulations during the past week on TSLA stock price. The net result is that climbs have been reduced through end of day mischief and other shenanigans. The market understands that TSLA should be priced higher prior to the 4Q ER, and consequently the combination of good macros and small rises fuels the next day's rise. TSLA has now traded higher 9 out of the past 10 trading sessions.
Shorts were tagged with 56% of TSLA selling today, continuing the high levels of short selling activity
Here we get an idea of just how many shares are involved in March convertible note hedging. Dusaniwsky estimates about 1.2 to 1.3 million shares.
Though the bottom volume indications are not lining up perfectly with the technical chart above, you can nonetheless see both the long line of green days (shown as grey) as well as the decreasing volume as longs become even more determined to hold onto their shares as various parties raise all kinds of mischief in this big option expiration week.
For Friday's trading, I post an updated chart of Open Interest for options expiring on Friday, as well as an options volume indication. You can see on the open interest chart that close to 20K 350 calls are set to expire on Friday and more than 20K 340 puts on the same day. That's a lot of money on the casino tables, my friends. Look too at the high level of volume recently in the purchase of 350 calls. For all these reasons I continue to believe that TSLA will likely close between 350 and 340 on Friday.
How will the shorts play it? I suspect we'll see a MMD, which will then generate a run up to 350 if macros are positive, and then the shorts will begin their downward push. We may see lots of interesting moves along the way, but as TSLA gets into the final half hour, that's where the fun begins because if we're still in the 340-350 range then the sellers (and possibly buyers) of some of those expiring options might get into the game. Don't miss it.
Conditions:
* Dow up 163 (0.67%)
* NASDAQ up 50 (0.71%)
* TSLA 347.31, up 1.26 (0.36%)
* TSLA volume 3.7M shares
* Oil 52.62
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I think this high OI of calls at 350 is the reason, there is such strong resistance at $350 this week. I guess same below $340.
Holding a few calls into tomorrow, going to be skiiing all day. I’m taking this as a bullish indicator because every time I can’t watch the ticker we see green. I feel like tomorrow could really be a turning point for TSLA. A lot of old trades die tomorrow. Is this record options open interest ever? Anyways, hope I’m not kicking myself I almost sold these calls a couple times this week. I even set orders that I later canceled. Good luck to longs.
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