Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[Papafox]

Today we saw the opportunity for a turnaround of TSLA recent slide, but the broader markets got in the way. If TSLA could have rallied in the late afternoon, the strong opening plus a strong ending would have signaled that Monday's trading will be positive. It still could be, depending upon news over the weekend and the macro behavior on Monday, especially considering how much better TSLA fared today compared with the broader markets.Notice that the gulf between SCTY and TSLA continues to widen.

Here's a view of trading on the NASDAQ today, so that you can compare the movement of TSLA with the broader market.

Conditions:
* Dow down 394 (2.13%)
* NASDAQ down 104 (2.54%)
* TSLA 194.47, down 2.89 (1.46%)
* TSLA volume 3.8M shares
* SCTY 16.77, down 0.67 (3.84%)

 

[Novice]

View attachment 193821
Today we saw the opportunity for a turnaround of TSLA recent slide, but the broader markets got in the way. If TSLA could have rallied in the late afternoon, the strong opening plus a strong ending would have signaled that Monday's trading will be positive. It still could be, depending upon news over the weekend and the macro behavior on Monday, especially considering how much better TSLA fared today compared with the broader markets.Notice that the gulf between SCTY and TSLA continues to widen.

View attachment 193824
Here's a view of trading on the NASDAQ today, so that you can compare the movement of TSLA with the broader market.

Conditions:
* Dow down 394 (2.13%)
* NASDAQ down 104 (2.54%)
* TSLA 194.47, down 2.89 (1.46%)
* TSLA volume 3.8M shares
* SCTY 16.77, down 0.67 (3.84%)

Hi Papafox

I am new to this forum and would like to seek your advice regarding a difficult situation.
I bought 3000 shares at 225 two weeks ago with CFD, not realising the danger of downtrend.
Was waiting for some recovery to sell to minimise loss however the spiral seems to be continuous, to the point the losses are unacceptable. My broker advised me once broken through the support at 188 it may spiral down to the lows at Feb, even a more precarious situation. I have the means to hold the shares, but fear it will not recover to decent levels to sell off. Hence the predicament.

Would greatly appreciate your advice based on your experience.

Thanks in advance !

 

[ggr]

Hi Papafox

I am new to this forum and would like to seek your advice regarding a difficult situation.
I bought 3000 shares at 225 two weeks ago with CFD, not realising the danger of downtrend.
Was waiting for some recovery to sell to minimise loss however the spiral seems to be continuous, to the point the losses are unacceptable. My broker advised me once broken through the support at 188 it may spiral down to the lows at Feb, even a more precarious situation. I have the means to hold the shares, but fear it will not recover to decent levels to sell off. Hence the predicament.

Would greatly appreciate your advice based on your experience.

Thanks in advance !

This is how new investors lose money. My (not @Papafox) advice is to hold the shares. The reasons you invested at $225 are still perfectly valid reasons. If you don't sell, in 18 months you won't remember this glitch. If you do, you will.

 

[Novice]

This is how new investors lose money. My (not @Papafox) advice is to hold the shares. The reasons you invested at $225 are still perfectly valid reasons. If you don't sell, in 18 months you won't remember this glitch. If you do, you will.

Hi ggr

Thanks for the advice.
In your opinion, will the SP rise in conjunction with the q3 result when released on 3rd Oct. ?
Or any chance it may rebound in the next 1-2 months ?
So far have noticed after a dip the recovery takes about 2 weeks to 2 months
I presume the 18 months is related to the launch of model 3

 

[ggr]

Hi ggr

Thanks for the advice.
In your opinion, will the SP rise in conjunction with the q3 result when released on 3rd Oct. ?
Or any chance it may rebound in the next 1-2 months ?
So far have noticed after a dip the recovery takes about 2 weeks to 2 months
I presume the 18 months is related to the launch of model 3

Yes, I am very confident that the price will go up in the long term. I also think, but with less certainty, that it will go up in early October when delivery numbers come out.

 

[Novice]

Yes, I am very confident that the price will go up in the long term. I also think, but with less certainty, that it will go up in early October when delivery numbers come out.

What do you think then about the strategy of selling all the shares bought at 225 and re entering say when it drops to 160-170 and holding the shares thereafter
Wouldn't this be better ?

 

[Jayjs20]

Of course it would be better, but I hope you have a high quality crystal ball. If stocks were that easy to predict, we'd all be rich. There's no telling if there will be a reversal on Monday, on the 16th or the week heading into early October. Maybe it'll go to 140, maybe not. I'm guilty of selling at the bottom before and it's not a great feeling. As long as you have the same number of shares, you can convince yourself that you haven't lost any money, since SP will inevitably go back up. Once you sell low, buy back in high, then you've definitely lost some money.

 

[Ulmo]

I agree with the statement that your reasons for buying when you did are the same now as when you bought. I am in a similar situation and look at it the same way. My main regret is not having enough to buy more at this price.

By the way, there are never guarantees. BYD is a serious competitor. Both Clinton and Trump seem like they'd be willing to do bad things -- the former willing to sell her soul, the latter coming from a position of not really understanding the future. The roads ahead are fraught with dangers. I saw all those dangers when I made my initial investment, and I see little difference now. Yes, it could never go back up. But it's in almost the same risk category now as it was when I first invested, in my opinion. I know about the reformatting that will be happening with the Solar City merger attempt. I know about many of the risks. I know many of these will shine through, and some of that may happen soon (and have). I have a fear that Elon won't machette the push-sales model of Solar City fast enough, that he will defer to the bad accent relatives of his to keep scraping the bottom with Solar City (being boldly innovative with finances) rather than focusing on engineering (being boldly innovative with electrical market integration engineering and long term construction materials science). I have a fear that the pair of Elon and his cousins will not realize the full potential of doing solar roofs right, and will get afraid. I'm afraid that's because Elon's cousins aren't as confident about success in invention as Elon is, and will prefer to just build a heap of money for their personal life and screw the rest of us, and Elon won't be realizing his cousins are that evil. I feel like Elon will figure it out soon enough. But I don't know that. I also am afraid that Elon has this rejection force around him that pushes away the most inventive and innovative workers that he has. I've heard this before. This could be a fly in the ointment that causes these things to fail for no other reason than a lack of mental capacity to see them through. But, even that, I think Elon can solve, even if not perfectly. I am betting these problems either never happen or aren't enough to take down the planned future. Tesla has too many advantages to assume that any one error will make it lose those advantages. It would take a string of serious and effective errors for that to be true. I don't see one rocket going boom as really that much of an error; it's expected. I'm talking intrinsic errors, like the failure of Silevo factory to produce roofing panels, or the push sales model continuing, or all of the Model 3 factory builders* quitting out of disgust with the way they're treated, or anything insane like that. I even assume we'll see partial errors along those lines, but that they will be solved, in their own ways. So, I made the bet. Nothing's changed from that bet, yet.

* Those who build the machine that build the machine.

 

[Johann Koeber]

Please tell us when you think it has changed.

 

[Papafox]

Hi Papafox

I am new to this forum and would like to seek your advice regarding a difficult situation.
I bought 3000 shares at 225 two weeks ago with CFD, not realising the danger of downtrend.
Was waiting for some recovery to sell to minimise loss however the spiral seems to be continuous, to the point the losses are unacceptable. My broker advised me once broken through the support at 188 it may spiral down to the lows at Feb, even a more precarious situation. I have the means to hold the shares, but fear it will not recover to decent levels to sell off. Hence the predicament.

Would greatly appreciate your advice based on your experience.

Thanks in advance !

Hi Novice,
Sorry to not respond sooner, this is the first time I've looked at the thread in a couple days. Nobody can say with certainty where TSLA will be 1-2 months from now, but it is helpful to see what others are doing and why they're doing it. Most members of this forum are frustrated with this dip, but few are selling. We've ridden this roller coaster before. I've been down to 120, up to 290, down to 140, up to 265, and now down to 195. You have to ask yourself how viable TSLA looks in the future. Personally, with 400,000 Model 3 orders, serious progress at the gigafactory (I counted 3 buildings completed and 5 more in various stages of being built), Model X ramp-up going well now, and serious progress making autopilot better, I see a great future for Tesla, but you need to do your own evaluation. I agree with ggr that the 3Q delivery numbers, available in the first week of October, are likely to give Tesla a lift. The more conservative move would be to hold through the likely runup in stock price right before the numbers are released and sell some at that time, before the numbers are actually released, but personally I am holding for a longer period because once this stock starts heading up, it can really go up. Hold your stock and you're likely to be rewarded. Sell now and you guarantee a loss. Many brokers would tell you to never buy any Tesla in the first place, which is a shame because it may well become the top growth stock over the next 10 years.

 

[Papafox]

The big question coming into today was, "what will the broader markets do?" You can see some concern in early pre-market trading, but as it became apparent that broader markets were going up, TSLA headed up as well. I like to say that TSLA these days does best in a mildly up day for the broader markets, but today became a really up day for the broader markets, and I think that continued climb of the NASDAQ worked against TSLA. Take a look at this chart of the NASDAQ for today:

You can see the NASDAQ went up and just kept climbing (except for a little dip around 1:30pm). Now look back up at TSLA. After noon, TSLA pretty much flattened out with a much greater gain than the NASDAQ. This is a cue that traders have been taking (I think) to move their money out of TSLA and into other stocks that are likely to keep going up throughout the day, stocks that are much more tied to following the broader markets. TSLA has earned a reputation lately for slumping in the afternoons, and I think this reputation developed because short sellers were selling in the afternoon hours in order to have the maximum effect on driving the SP down, because volume has been so low in these summer afternoons. Like it or not, I think money leaves TSLA on a big runup day for the NASDAQ after TSLA has finished its morning run.

The good news is that TSLA could have a good day tomorrow, especially if we see the NASDAQ heading up ever so slightly. Look at the after-hours trading for TSLA and you see an overall positive sentiment for the stock going into tomorrow. This is a situation similar to where we were last week when the Falcon 9 rocket blew up. As long as nothing that drastic happens this Tuesday, I think TSLA has a chance to put two good days together. That would be significant, because investors are not willing to believe a downtrend has stopped just because there's been a single positive day.

Notice that even with its midday slump, TSLA gained more than either the Dow or the NASDAQ on a percentage basis. The real overachiever today was SCTY. If these positive results relative to TSLA continue, the net effect will be a display of more confidence that the merger will go through. The reason for the good performance at SCTY today was a $305 million raise in funding that was engineered by a Soros company.

Conditions:
* Dow up 240 (1.32%)
* NASDAQ up 86 (1.68%)
* TSLA 198.30, up 3.83 (1.97%)
* TSLA volume 3.7M shares
* SCTY 17.80, up 1.03 (6.14%)

 

[TrendTrader007]

Hi Novice,
Sorry to not respond sooner, this is the first time I've looked at the thread in a couple days. Nobody can say with certainty where TSLA will be 1-2 months from now, but it is helpful to see what others are doing and why they're doing it. Most members of this forum are frustrated with this dip, but few are selling. We've ridden this roller coaster before. I've been down to 120, up to 290, down to 140, up to 265, and now down to 195. You have to ask yourself how viable TSLA looks in the future. Personally, with 400,000 Model 3 orders, serious progress at the gigafactory (I counted 3 buildings completed and 5 more in various stages of being built), Model X ramp-up going well now, and serious progress making autopilot better, I see a great future for Tesla, but you need to do your own evaluation. I agree with ggr that the 3Q delivery numbers, available in the first week of October, are likely to give Tesla a lift. The more conservative move would be to hold through the likely runup in stock price right before the numbers are released and sell some at that time, before the numbers are actually released, but personally I am holding for a longer period because once this stock starts heading up, it can really go up. Hold your stock and you're likely to be rewarded. Sell now and you guarantee a loss. Many brokers would tell you to never buy any Tesla in the first place, which is a shame because it may well become the top growth stock over the next 10 years.

this guy PApafox, whoever he is, is the real deal
it is truly heartening to see someone giving genuine advice
way to go bro!

 

[Novice]

Of course it would be better, but I hope you have a high quality crystal ball. If stocks were that easy to predict, we'd all be rich. There's no telling if there will be a reversal on Monday, on the 16th or the week heading into early October. Maybe it'll go to 140, maybe not. I'm guilty of selling at the bottom before and it's not a great feeling. As long as you have the same number of shares, you can convince yourself that you haven't lost any money, since SP will inevitably go back up. Once you sell low, buy back in high, then you've definitely lost some money.

Thanks for the advice ! Think I will hold on to the shares then
Hopefully the wait will not be that long.

Hi Novice,
Sorry to not respond sooner, this is the first time I've looked at the thread in a couple days. Nobody can say with certainty where TSLA will be 1-2 months from now, but it is helpful to see what others are doing and why they're doing it. Most members of this forum are frustrated with this dip, but few are selling. We've ridden this roller coaster before. I've been down to 120, up to 290, down to 140, up to 265, and now down to 195. You have to ask yourself how viable TSLA looks in the future. Personally, with 400,000 Model 3 orders, serious progress at the gigafactory (I counted 3 buildings completed and 5 more in various stages of being built), Model X ramp-up going well now, and serious progress making autopilot better, I see a great future for Tesla, but you need to do your own evaluation. I agree with ggr that the 3Q delivery numbers, available in the first week of October, are likely to give Tesla a lift. The more conservative move would be to hold through the likely runup in stock price right before the numbers are released and sell some at that time, before the numbers are actually released, but personally I am holding for a longer period because once this stock starts heading up, it can really go up. Hold your stock and you're likely to be rewarded. Sell now and you guarantee a loss. Many brokers would tell you to never buy any Tesla in the first place, which is a shame because it may well become the top growth stock over the next 10 years.

Hi
It's nice to hear from you. And thanks for the valuable advice. Will probably sell a fraction before q3 and retain the rest for long term gains so as not to be tied down with so much resources .
By the way, you mentioned selling before q3, why not after that if results are most likely to be resounding ?

 

[GoTslaGo]

"buy the rumor, sell the news"

 

[Novice]

"buy the rumor, sell the news"

Ok I see, so the actual outcome may not be as potent as the anticipation of it

 

[sunhelm]

.. the actual outcome may not be as potent as the anticipation of it

Best distillation of that oft-said quote ever! I think I'd rather use your quote instead, Novice!

 

[Papafox]

We're still trying to get two green days in a row to break the downtrend, and the broader market said "NO!" to that idea today. Additionally, good range for the upcoming Chevy Bolt put some pressure on TSLA today. The good news is that some recall of shares is happening, and that fact was indicated by the recovery of TSLA during its final hour of regular-hours trading. On a percentage basis, TSLA lost less than the Dow and not much more than the NASDAQ today, which is odd for TSLA on a down day. It's funny how big up days don't help TSLA much, but big down days certainly do hurt the stock unless there's news to counter.

So, we await tomorrow with the hope that the combination of broader markets being calm and additional recall of shares will provide an updraft and bring TSLA back into the green.

Conditions:
* Dow down 258 (1.41%)
* NASDAQ down 57 (1.09%)
* TSLA 196.05, down 2.25 (1.13%)
* TSLA volume 3.6M shares
* SCTY 17.06, down 0.74 (4.16%)

 

[Papafox]

Today was the kind of day TSLA needed. The broader markets weren't too hot nor too cold, but were just about right. As with many days when TSLA is transitioning between red and green, we saw mixed red and green throughout a good part of the day. Notice, though, that each dip became higher as the day progressed, until the dips still remained green.

I expect to hear that a fair number of shorts covered today, which would account for the buying, as anemic as it was. If we had closed up on a high note today, I think TSLA would have started tomorrow's trading with a nice climb. Instead, TSLA will have to earn that climb. Expect another FUD-storm tomorrow as the naysayers do their best to prevent two green days in a row for TSLA.

Conditions:
* Dow down 32 (0.18%)
* NASDAQ up 19 (0.36%)
* TSLA 196.41, up 0.36 (0.18%)
* TSLA volume: 2.2M shares
* SCTY 16.89, down 0.17 (1.00%)

 

[Papafox]

Glancing back into the daily trading archives, I see that on July 30, TSLA closed at 234 and that was the beginning of the attack of the red ink. With the exception of Aug 18 and 19 when we barely had two green days in a row (one was up only a quarter point), today is the first day in quite some time that TSLA has been able to put two green days back-to-back. Have we bottomed out and begun the climb up to October delivery numbers? Maybe, but here's how Tesla lets the market know for sure that it is done dropping for a while. First, we need a green day tomorrow. If share recalls continue and if the macros behave, that should happen. Three positive days would set TSLA up for a nice opening Monday morning, quite likely, and by then the traders can start thinking more seriously about Q3 delivery numbers, which will be but two weeks away.

Volume was quite low for such a big TSLA day, which may indicate that shorts were covering but not a lot of new longs were playing the game yet.

Notice how yesterday's trading marked a conflict between bears and bulls with several changes between red and green throughout the day. That was a classic transition day. By today, we were solidly in the green.

One reason you saw such a smooth stairstep climbing to above 200 this morning was that there were no shares available to short when trading began. Thus, no strategic selling to try to spoil the rally was possible with short shares early in the day. At EXACTLY 12 noon, over 14,000 shares sold in a minute. My guess? Someone did a short sale of multiple thousand to discourage further climbing, and the algobots joined in to do the bulk of the selling. This is only a guess and your explanations are welcome. By end of day, IB had about 9,000 shares available to short, undoubtedly shares that had been made available today as some shorts chose to close their positions. I don't have short shares info for Fidelity, but that brokerage looks to be recalling and keeping the short shares, and so I would be surprised to see them offering shares to short tomorrow. Please speak up if you know otherwise. I think Fidelity is much more aggressively recalling shares compared to IB, and the climbing SP that the Fidelity recalls lead to are causing some IB shorts to close their positions. With TSLA still low for its 12 month history and with the prospects that the long, slow SP decline may be at an end, shorts may not be ready to open new positions, even if short shares become more available at some brokerages.

Congrats to all longs who held strong or added when we were in the 190s. Let's stay on the right side of 200 now. Max Pain for Friday is 205, which is a good number to shoot for. Let's hope the market makers help us get there.

Conditions:
* Dow up 178 (0.99%)
* NASDAQ up 76 (1.47%)
* TSLA 200.42, up 4.01 (2.04%)
* TSLA volume 3.1M shares
* SCTY 17.10, up 0.21 (1.24%)

 

[geneclean55]

Great post!
Also monthly options expire tomorrow which should add some extra oomph toward 205 via the market makers.