Delay in model X launch?

[vandacca]

The Model S roll out and Model X roll out will be very different. With the Model S, Tesla could take their time and ramped slowly as everyone expected. For the Model X, it has to happen fast or they will badly miss 2016 projections. The hype machine should be running full force as far in advance as possible to help drive that demand. Instead we haven't heard anything official from TM on the X at all.

When I offer that the only valid business reasons are they are worried about impact of S demand, or they simply aren't ready (thus telegraphing yet another delay) I'm the one that's labeled crazy.

Maybe the X will be so utterly ground breaking that it won't need any marketing and Tesla can sell as many as they can make for the foreseeable future. I guess I hope that's the case as well...

I tend to agree with you on most points. However, Tesla could not "take their time" with the Model-S roll-out. They had to get them out fast due to financial reasons, which is why there were so many "bugs" in the first models. I feel that now the opposite is true and they are taking their time on the Model-X in order to get it right and to prevent costly repairs after-the-fact. Its more efficient and cost-effective to ship a good-working car than to have to do a recall or repair it after delivery. Elon doesn't appear to be too concerned about missing projections or the short-term value of TSLA stock.

But I certainly agree with you on all remaining points regarding reasons for the silence. IMHO, the biggest is reason is impacting S sales, since that is currently their only source of revenue right now. They need to keep it as healthy as possible. With regards to delays, I don't necessarily think the vehicle is delayed, but rather the high-volume production will be delayed. I think the delays moving forward now will be with the production line and it certainly appears to be delayed again since it doesn't sound like they're going to do significant ramping up until possibly Jan 2016.

And I do think that the Model-X will be ground-breaking and generate a lot of buzz so that they don't need to do too much marketing when its revealed. Let the journalist/media take care of that. The smart decision is to re-evaluate their marketing stance once they have caught up on Model-X backlog, which might not happen until the end of 2016 (I'm including foreign markets here).

 

[gizmoboy]

They are attempting to sell 80-100k Model S/X next year. I would expect that number to be a 60-40 X to S split. That's around 50k Model X's that need to be delivered. This is more sales per year than Porsche, Audi, MB and BMW get with their luxury SUV models Tesla will be competing with. I didn't mean the Model X needed to appeal to the mass market, but it does need to convert potential buyers away from those other SUVs and upconvert buyers of Lexus/Toyota/Honda/etc.

I believe in order to do that they will need to at least do a large PR blitz and do alot of event/guerrilla marketing that will feed the production line that is much bigger than when the Model S was launched.



So you agree that they currently have enough demand to fill about 6 months of expected to supply. This is why I don't understand some of the more diligent TM defenders on here. The Model S roll out and Model X roll out will be very different. With the Model S, Tesla could take their time and ramped slowly as everyone expected. For the Model X, it has to happen fast or they will badly miss 2016 projections. The hype machine should be running full force as far in advance as possible to help drive that demand. Instead we haven't heard anything official from TM on the X at all.

When I offer that the only valid business reasons are they are worried about impact of S demand, or they simply aren't ready (thus telegraphing yet another delay) I'm the one that's labeled crazy.

Maybe the X will be so utterly ground breaking that it won't need any marketing and Tesla can sell as many as they can make for the foreseeable future. I guess I hope that's the case as well...

I have a hard time believing that "mass market" buyers will be willing to wait 6-9 months from ordering to get their car; they will look at their second option and go that way.

The die-hard "EV CUV or bust" customers are a different story, of course...

 

[NigelM]

So you agree that they currently have enough demand to fill about 6 months of expected to supply. This is why I don't understand some of the more diligent TM defenders on here.

Nobody's disagreeing with you. As there's a ramp still to come and the current # of reservations stands at ~30k there's clearly ~six months worth of reservations (or maybe even more)

The Model S roll out and Model X roll out will be very different. With the Model S, Tesla could take their time and ramped slowly as everyone expected. For the Model X, it has to happen fast or they will badly miss 2016 projections.

Don't forget this car is 70% different parts and a very different design. It's complex and "fast" is a relative term, too fast equals reckless. Yes, Tesla has more manufacturing experience now but new parts, new production line, new staff; the X ramp will be steady and secure.

The hype machine should be running full force as far in advance as possible to help drive that demand. Instead we haven't heard anything official from TM on the X at all.

Looked at any media recently? No there hasn't been any personal e-mails but it's hard to miss the news.

I'm the one that's labeled crazy.

You're crazy, nobody said that. ;-)

 

[Robert.Boston]

I'm reminded of the iPhone 6s rollout strategy. Apple has not officially announced the 6s, not previewed it on its website, nor fixed a release date. But we all know it's coming, and various sources have given us a pretty good preview of some of they key changes. No one's criticizing Apple for this approach, and I'm not sure why Tesla's approach to the Model X release is much different.

 

[simplejack]

Well, the most profitable company in the world, doing a yearly refresh that they have for the past 3 model cycles, on the most ubiquitous consumer electronic device of the past 30 yrs (possibly ever), that has sold over 700M units worldwide isn't really a great comparison to the Model X IMO.

I think there is room to criticize Tesla at this point for their lack of communication to customers. I also think there is room to criticize them from an investor standpoint if they don't have a significant launch event in the next 4-6 weeks. Tesla's burn rate is massive and they need to hit projections in 2016 or they could end up with more debt/dilution in 2016 as well.

 

[mzpolo]

The Model-S, Model-X and the Roadster were never meant to appeal to the broader market. So, while I do agree with you that there isn't much interest in the broader market, this is by design and expected considering they have practically no marketing budget. The Model-3 is meant for the broader market and how they achieve demand there is anyone's guess right now. I suspect that they may need to eventually use more traditional marketing techniques.

Tesla is doing things differently, so its hard to compare to other manufactures. That, coupled with the fact that they're learning as they go and making lots of mistakes, may make it feel like there is some deliberate misrepresentation, but I believe it's due to growing pains, rather than some dastardly plan.

here here. +1 in TMCese

 

[trialcritic]

@Trialcritic: I'm calling BS on you, sir! :wink:

You are on this thread with the rest of us obsessives (just speaking for myself I guess), at 0719 in the morning PDT checking the status of a car you don't expect to see until the end of next year?

And I certainly pray to the Flying Spaghetti Monster that you get your MX sooner than that, cuz I'm ~1000 cars behind you!

You do not know me enough to call BS etc
I am an investor in Tesla also, not just a person who ordered the MX, so am interested in it.

You have to know the data before assuming when you will get it. The material in the MX page has been unchanged for over 6 months. Tesla announced a week ago that the estimated number of Tesla cars coming out this year is reduced by about 10%. As another person put it, this will affect the MX more than MS. I am happy to be proved wrong, but have been watching Tesla for over 4 years and am familiar with their changes.

 

[gizmoboy]

I'm reminded of the iPhone 6s rollout strategy. Apple has not officially announced the 6s, not previewed it on its website, nor fixed a release date. But we all know it's coming, and various sources have given us a pretty good preview of some of they key changes. No one's criticizing Apple for this approach, and I'm not sure why Tesla's approach to the Model X release is much different.

Big differences.

First, Apple didn't take deposits.

Second, Apple didn't announce even tentative shipping dates (<snark>then miss them by years</snark>). Heck, Apple didn't even announce the existence of the 6s (though it's an open secret).

Third, when Apple does announce the 6s, they will have a very specific ship date (even though there will likely be a ramp-up and order backlog).

I admire many things about Apple, but their strong inclination to hold their cards close to the vest is a major one.

I believe companies avoid this option more out of fear than principle, and they get burned by the FUD/pre-announce approach far more often than not.

 

[simplejack]

Nobody's disagreeing with you. As there's a ramp still to come and the current # of reservations stands at ~30k there's clearly ~six months worth of reservations (or maybe even more)

Don't forget this car is 70% different parts and a very different design. It's complex and "fast" is a relative term, too fast equals reckless. Yes, Tesla has more manufacturing experience now but new parts, new production line, new staff; the X ramp will be steady and secure.

Looked at any media recently? No there hasn't been any personal e-mails but it's hard to miss the news.

We all hope for the continued success of Tesla. I believe they should be doing more to generate demand than they currently are. To me the simplest way to do that is to showcase the X.

The first 3 years of Model S sales were ~55k. They will need to do about that number in the first year of Model X. It looks like they have about a 6 month backlog right now, and I'm sure reservations will spike once they launch the vehicle, hopefully that launch will be soon. If they have overestimated the appeal of the X, delaying the launch could impact their sales numbers in 2016 which is a key year in the expansion plans of gigafactory and Model 3.

Obviously we will know something soon, but to me the lack of a public launch prior to initial deliveries is a very curious strategy that I do not understand from a business standpoint.

Also, the media you are referring to isn't really a positive IMO. Many of the articles I see popping up about the X talk about a potential delay and the casual customer researching cars may not invest the time to determine if the rumors are true.

 

[sigurdi]

I still have some hope for some Model X in Europa before 01.01.16.
It is multiple reasons.
1. Elon told us in Oslo that the first Model X would be delivered 2-3 months after the first in US, and 1-2 of those months would be transportation.
2. Got some roumors that it was discussion on sending the firs European X with airfraight. ;-)
3. Tesla would like to sell the Model 3 Signatures fast also in Europa.
The Model X Signatures was sold out years after US, with the Model S deliveries in Europa Signatures and Production was delivered at the same time. The only thing the signature holders got for the free loan was the Signature red and higher price.
Delivery time was after quite some of the production vehicles.
People think the same thing will happend this time, I have one of each so I can choose the best deal.
If delivery is repeated it is no point getting a Signature for Model 3.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Ummm, yes he did. Just for reference here's the quote still available on TMC:

Would be nice if we could stop discussing Eds in every single thread. ;-)

Fair enough, your quote is accurate from another thread. Ironically *I* haven't been discussing Eds in every single thread, since I double checked Eds only in the Delay in Model X launch? thread.

That said, in the original thread Eds did say he/she expected the original launch in "couple" or "few" months from mid-July onwards. Launch, we expect, includes Founders deliveries - and his/her main opinion lingered around RC2's being sellable vehicles and that the launch would go ahead in appearance successfully, just not in volumes.

If Tesla delivers Signatures in Q3 (and not just Founders), then clearly Eds was wrong on that. If Tesla delivers only Founders in Q3, it is a bit more iffy in my books since Eds didn't say the launch wouldn't be in Q3.

Edit: Speaking of quotes, returning to that Delay in Model X launch thread?, just some choice quotes on how TMC receives leaksters from the very first thread page.

You should probably cover your short.

Should prolly just lock this thread before it gets out of hand.

No, because what you're selling is more suited to the bears and shorters on Seeking Alpha than the intelligent people around here... most of whom drive the truth daily.

Maybe, just maybe, no matter what we think of Eds and where we discuss him/her, we could start better than that next time.

 

[Vitold]

That said, in the original thread Eds did say he/she expected the original launch in "couple" or "few" months from mid-July onwards. Launch, we expect, includes Founders deliveries - and his/her main opinion lingered around RC2's being sellable vehicles and that the launch would go ahead in appearance successfully, just not in volumes. If Tesla delivers Signatures in Q3 (and not just Founders), then clearly Eds was wrong on that. If Tesla delivers only Founders in Q3, it is a bit more iffy in my books since Eds didn't say the launch wouldn't be in Q3.

Let's separate alleged fact from speculation as you cannot apply equal weight to both.

Allegedly, at the time of his posting there were supplier issues. Allegedly, the issue was large enough (machines not ready, supplier contracts not signed) that would cause volume production to start December or January.

Rest of what was he written was speculation most of which (I deduce) was borne due to Tesla's perceived double face regarding what is going on (suppliers not ready while Tesla promising Q3 deliveries and some analysts expecting thousands of cars produced).

​

The only question left unanswered ( in my mind ) is, if supplier situation was true at that time, did Tesla change their course and if it's in Tesla's benefit to make the change and produce X in volume this year?

I think it's in Tesla's interest to produce small number of cars and only ramp up when they feel everything is in place because that's the cost of using robots instead of people on the assembly line. I speculate that Tesla has raised money to speedup the production, we don't know however if is to make X in volume 1Q2016 or earlier.

 

[mzpolo]

Where do you see "everyone putting any credence in the door opening mechanism change"? Suddenly we went from mentioning a rumor and saying I don't know if it is accurate at all, to "everyone putting" credence on the rumor? It would be nice if arguments would actually be considered as they have been presented, not some strawman that originated from who knows where.

I don't see how we can dismiss the rumor merely based on what you say. But there is a fairly easy thing we may be able to discuss: Did the 2012-2013 prototype have fully electric falcon wings? Or did it include a hydraulic component? If the prototype had fully electric, then it would seem unlikely (though not possobile) a later beta Model X would have something else.
......
Maybe we'll eventually learn what design and technology variants Tesla went through with Model X and we'll learn if hydraulics played any part at any point to put that to rest one way or the other.

Your statement in itself attempts to put credence in the door opening mechanism change.
You come across here and attempt to show yourself as someone with integrity, with experience and knowledge. And then you want to go and want to add more credence to your self and your arguments by asking "if arguments would actually be considered as they have been presented". I waited a WHOLE LOT of pages to see if anyone else would pick up on the absolute false rumor. Not enough engineers on the forum to have done that. When you perpetuated the rumor, I popped. So my vent comes to this.....

Let me say this very clearly.... This has been rewritten several times to make it less personal but your voluminous analysis not analysis but pure guess and would have never started or continued (I am not going back XX pages on this to find where) the thought of a hydraulic opening system if you had anything more than a wild a_ _ guess. I suggest that you do some homework and talk to a mechanical engineer and learn what a hydraulic motor is and how it works. I can and will emphatically state that no engineer REGARDLESS of experience, would push forward a hydraulic system for opening and closing any doors of ANY automobile, let alone a Tesla model

I've retired my voluminous threads pending Model X launch, due to lack of interest from other members and to give everyone a breather. :wink:

Yea.... looks like that is a false statement too.

Oh... and YES I AM trolling for rep points.
And I need to pop a Xanax.

 

[hockeythug]

Fair enough, your quote is accurate from another thread. Ironically *I* haven't been discussing Eds in every single thread, since I double checked Eds only in the Delay in Model X launch? thread.

That said, in the original thread Eds did say he/she expected the original launch in "couple" or "few" months from mid-July onwards. Launch, we expect, includes Founders deliveries - and his/her main opinion lingered around RC2's being sellable vehicles and that the launch would go ahead in appearance successfully, just not in volumes.

If Tesla delivers Signatures in Q3 (and not just Founders), then clearly Eds was wrong on that. If Tesla delivers only Founders in Q3, it is a bit more iffy in my books since Eds didn't say the launch wouldn't be in Q3.

Edit: Speaking of quotes, returning to that Delay in Model X launch thread?, just some choice quotes on how TMC receives leaksters from the very first thread page.







Maybe, just maybe, no matter what we think of Eds and where we discuss him/her, we could start better than that next time.

Yeah, that thread turned out great.

 

[NigelM]

That said, in the original thread Eds did say he/she expected the original launch in "couple" or "few" months from mid-July onwards. Launch, we expect, includes Founders deliveries - and his/her main opinion lingered around RC2's being sellable vehicles and that the launch would go ahead in appearance successfully, just not in volumes.

If Tesla delivers Signatures in Q3 (and not just Founders), then clearly Eds was wrong on that. If Tesla delivers only Founders in Q3, it is a bit more iffy in my books since Eds didn't say the launch wouldn't be in Q3.

Sorry AR, now you're just making stuff up.

1. Eds did not say he expected a launch in a few months from mid-July; he said that "Tesla are committing to launch Tesla X in a few/couple months".
2. Eds never mentioned Founders or Sigs. He said there would be no deliveries in Q3 and less than 100 cars year end.

Friendly tip: if you want folks to stop making jokes and have a serious dialogue then perhaps it's a good idea to get verifiable facts right and also to cease this never-ending recall of someone who clearly had an agenda regardless of whether he said anything factual or not.

 

[AnOutsider]

Sorry AR, now you're just making stuff up.

1. Eds did not say he expected a launch in a few months from mid-July; he said that "Tesla are committing to launch Tesla X in a few/couple months".
2. Eds never mentioned Founders or Sigs. He said there would be no deliveries in Q3 and less than 100 cars year end.

Friendly tip: if you want folks to stop making jokes and have a serious dialogue then perhaps it's a good idea to get verifiable facts right and also to cease this never-ending recall of someone who clearly had an agenda regardless of whether he said anything factual or not.

Not that this needs to continue, but from my personal cache of the Eds post:

1) Correct: "As all OEMs do Tesla are committing to “launch” Tesla X in few / couple months. This will be as follows:"
2) I do not see mention of Q3 at all in his original post. I see: "Build few hundred, mostly, press cars .. Deliver less than 100 cars to customers by end of the year"

Unless this is to be construed as referring to nothing happening in Q3 (which I personally just take to mean there will be some parts will be one-offs or made in-house until this happens): "Several suppliers do not even have their new machines up and running to provide components; their production tooling is only going to be completed around late Oct / early Nov 2015…"

 

[NigelM]

2) I do not see mention of Q3 at all in his original post. I see: "Build few hundred, mostly, press cars .. Deliver less than 100 cars to customers by end of the year"

I already gave AR the Q3 quote up-thread here. It was never removed from TMC.

 

[AnOutsider]

I already gave AR the Q3 quote up-thread here. It was never removed from TMC.

Sorry, I don't follow the investor's section. As noted, my quotes came from his original posts in his original thread.

 

[AQQU]

In todays local newspaper (local = Zug, Switzerland) I found an interview with the CEO of Bossard, one of the suppliers of Tesla. He states that the production of Model X starts in September. But he also said that the challenge for Tesla will be to hit that target and manage the ramp-up. Furthermore he said that due to Tesla being a great reference Bossard got in contact with other very interesting companies in the Silicon Valley in the area of electric / autonomous cars. If your German isn´t too rusty, you can find his exact words on the German Tesla Drivers and Friends forum: http://tff-forum.de/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=3258&start=10#p162551

 

[hobbes]

In todays local newspaper (local = Zug, Switzerland) I found an interview with the CEO of Bossard, one of the suppliers of Tesla. He states that the production of Model X starts in September. But he also said that the challenge for Tesla will be to hit that target and manage the ramp-up. Furthermore he said that due to Tesla being a great reference Bossard got in contact with other very interesting companies in the Silicon Valley in the area of electric / autonomous cars. If your German isn´t too rusty, you can find his exact words on the German Tesla Drivers and Friends forum: http://tff-forum.de/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=3258&start=10#p162551

Thanks for the info! That sounds like the official statements, guess he should know if there was a delay - on the other hand, he would most likely be under NDA on details or delays...