Delay in model X launch?

[lodenthal]

I tend to agree with Bonnie that the founder's have most likely configured and are in some form of production. We are getting close to the Magical September time frame and expect that our "canary in the mine", Bonnie, will be on fire and tell us when her order page opens up for the Sigs. I'm "cautiously" optimistically that it will be first quarter 2016 for my #8928. Glad I don't need a car at this time but I am chomping at the bit. I'll just enjoy Model S and happily wait!

 

[anticitizen13.7]

He didn't promise. He gave an educated guess based on the knowledge he had at the time of the ER call. Indeed, I don't think I've ever heard Elon utter the words: 'I promise....', so I'm always a little confused when people go on about how such and such was 'promised' by him/Tesla.

Unless the transcripts I read are incorrect, Elon was directly asked in the Q1 Conference Call "when you'll be able to configure Model X online", and Elon answered, "Yes, Probably three months from now, May, so its like - this is early July when we'll ask people to do the configuration".

Three months from early May is actually early August, but we are now in the second half of August. The question specifically asked about Internet configuration. It is possible that Elon did not completely answer the question, but I can see why people would think it was implied that a web/online configuration site would be up by now.

Yet he did make a very definitive statement of 'the Model X will not be seen until the first one is delivered'. Yet everyone is blowing past that. I can't figure out the disconnect & have pretty much given up trying.

We'll see it when the first one is delivered. I have every reason to believe that Founders have configured & managed to do so without an online Design Studio.

I'll tell you exactly why: because people have been told so many different things by Tesla that they don't know what to believe anymore.

This is of serious concern to me even though I don't even have a Model X reservation. The fact of the matter is that while Tesla fans and early adopters have some degree of patience for constant delays and miscommunication, none of this is going to be even remotely acceptable to mainstream customers looking at Model 3 and beyond. If Tesla doesn't know exactly when they can deliver a product, they should just say "deposit is [$X amount]", delivered whenever it's ready. Giving out dates that never pan out really messes with people, especially if they are trying to work out leasing issues with their current vehicle. Your average customer who can buy a new Accord or Camry or BMW 3 isn't going to put up with this. Alienate potential customers and you may never get them back. Even worse, they will tell their friends not to do business with you.

After almost 2 years of delays and a different song and dance every few months from the company, is it any wonder that people are thinking: where is the :cursing: product?

 

[vandacca]

Yet he did make a very definitive statement of 'the Model X will not be seen until the first one is delivered'. Yet everyone is blowing past that. I can't figure out the disconnect & have pretty much given up trying.

We'll see it when the first one is delivered. I have every reason to believe that Founders have configured & managed to do so without an online Design Studio.

Bonnie: firstly, I believe everyone understands that the X will not be revealed until end of September - there is no disagreement there as Elon said this a long time ago. The disconnect is that you are referring to the X reveal, when everyone else is referring to the Design Studio going live.

On June 9th, Elon said people could configure their Model-X by end of July, which most people took to mean that the Design Studio would be available to everyone at the end of July. That didn't happen and now we interpret that to mean that the founders were able to configure their vehicles in some way (email, phone, web, etc.) at the end of July. When Elon's statements don't come to fruition, I find it very interesting how we try to re-interpret them so that they are accurate.

Then on August 5th, Elon said the Design Studio would be online in 2-3 weeks. This Wednesday will be 2 weeks, and if it's not online by the end of next week, then I'm sure we'll go back and re-interpret his words to mean something else like the Design Studio will only be available to the first dozen Signature holders at the end of August.

Reservation holders are not necessary expecting to see the final reveal, but they would like to see a mock-up with a list of available options and prices so that they can start their planning.

 

[timf]

Unless the transcripts I read are incorrect, Elon was directly asked in the Q1 Conference Call "when you'll be able to configure Model X online", and Elon answered, "Yes, Probably three months from now, May, so its like - this is early July when we'll ask people to do the configuration".

Three months from early May is actually early August, but we are now in the second half of August. The question specifically asked about Internet configuration. It is possible that Elon did not completely answer the question, but I can see why people would think it was implied that a web/online configuration site would be up by now.

It's driving me crazy how people keep quoting the incorrect transcript that MarketWatch posted. It completely glosses over his mumbling and pauses that show how uncertain his statement is. He says three months, then quickly corrects himself when he realizes it was already May. It also adds the word "early" which he never said. All this is a moot point now since there wasn't anything posted online at anytime in July, but PLEASE STOP POSTING THIS INCORRECT TRANSCRIPT!!!

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I find it very interesting how we take Elon's words and when they don't come to fruition, we try to re-interpret them so that they are accurate.

I have 2 thoughts on this:

First, the TMC community wants Elon and Tesla to succeed. I consider myself part of this group. I think it is natural for people to change their mindset to give the company the benefit of the doubt.

Second, it is possible that Elon has an RDF, or "Reality Distortion Field". RDF was a term that people used to apply to the late Steve Jobs of Apple, because he had the ability to seemingly convince fans of anything, even if Apple messed up or failed to deliver. Sometimes I do think "who am I to criticize?", since Elon and Tesla are accomplishing revolutionary and very difficult things. Mass manufacturing a car is hard stuff, technically and logistically. However, I cannot give them a pass for continually giving out dates and missing those dates. I will continue to complain about it, for the long-term good of the company. Disclaimer: I own a small number of TSLA shares. This is why I feel justified in complaining even though I have no reservation for product.

- - - Updated - - -

It's driving me crazy how people keep quoting the incorrect transcript that MarketWatch posted. It completely glosses over his mumbling and pauses that show how uncertain his statement is. He says three months, then quickly corrects himself when he realizes it was already May. It also adds the word "early" which he never said. All this is a moot point now since there wasn't anything posted online at anytime in July, but PLEASE STOP POSTING THIS INCORRECT TRANSCRIPT!!!

As I noted, Elon got the timing wrong.

However, was the transcript incorrect regarding online​ configuration?

 

[AnOutsider]

After almost 2 years of delays and a different song and dance every few months from the company, is it any wonder that people are thinking: where is the :cursing: product?

My wife would agree with you. She's pushing harder and harder to say screw it and just go with a nice minivan (ugh) for the kids. Though, with the delays and how rough they can be on vehicles, I'm beginning to think it might just be best.

 

[gregincal]

Regardless of what was said earlier, he was very clear about the design studio opening in (probably) two to three weeks at the conference call. Now either he expects to deliver a founders car by then or he plans to open the design studio before delivering a car. If he already knows the first car isn't going to be delivered until later in September and he won't open the design studio until then, why would he make the 2-3 week statement? It just doesn't make any sense. Now the timing could be off by a bit, but projecting 2-3 weeks out isn't a distant vague projection.

 

[uselesslogin]

I would like to check in as a future Model 3 owner that would happily put up with all these shenanigans so long as it means I don't have to buy a BMW 3 series, Accord, Camry, or anything else that burns gas.

 

[bonnie]

Regardless of what was said earlier, he was very clear about the design studio opening in (probably) two to three weeks at the conference call. Now either he expects to deliver a founders car by then or he plans to open the design studio before delivering a car. If he already knows the first car isn't going to be delivered until later in September and he won't open the design studio until then, why would he make the 2-3 week statement? It just doesn't make any sense. Now the timing could be off by a bit, but projecting 2-3 weeks out isn't a distant vague projection.

I thought he said owners would be configuring, not that an online design studio would be open. (And I obviously have a strong interest in this topic ...)

 

[vandacca]

Regardless of what was said earlier, he was very clear about the design studio opening in (probably) two to three weeks at the conference call. Now either he expects to deliver a founders car by then or he plans to open the design studio before delivering a car. If he already knows the first car isn't going to be delivered until later in September and he won't open the design studio until then, why would he make the 2-3 week statement? It just doesn't make any sense. Now the timing could be off by a bit, but projecting 2-3 weeks out isn't a distant vague projection.

There are two distinct tracts here:
(a) first (founders) cars to be delivered at the end of September
(b) Design Studio opening up in the next week or so.

It is assumed that the founders have already configured their cars and they'll be receiving them at the end of September. The Design Studio needs to be opened 30-60 days before they start configuring the next batch of cars. So, if they want to start delivering a few Signature series vehicles in October, they need to be configured around the end of August.

 

[bonnie]

There are two distinct tracts here:
(a) first (founders) cars to be delivered at the end of September
(b) Design Studio opening up in the next week or so.

It is assumed that the founders have already configured their cars and they'll be receiving them at the end of September. The Design Studio needs to be opened 30-60 days before they start configuring the next batch of cars. So, if they want to start delivering a few Signature series vehicles in October, they need to be configured around the end of August.

I agree that if a few Sigs are to be delivered in October, they need to configure end of August. But that has nothing to do with the Design Studio being opened - it would be nice to have that, but it is not necessary to have that in order to configure.

 

[simplejack]

There are only 2 reasons Tesla wouldn't at least launch the X in the next 2 weeks:

1. They aren't ready to reveal the product because there are issues affecting the final design that they can't commit to yet.

2. The demand for model S has slacked to the point they are trying to ensure they can sell as many of those to potential X customers.

Continuing to shroud the X in secrecy can't really be taken as a positive for the company. Especially while they are going through the secondary offering, I just don't see how they can't go on record with some information since this product is critical for Tesla to provide the bridge the mass market Model 3.

 

[AlMc]

I agree that if a few Sigs are to be delivered in October, they need to configure end of August. But that has nothing to do with the Design Studio being opened - it would be nice to have that, but it is not necessary to have that in order to configure.

Many, including me, were not around for the delivery of the SigS.....Can we learn from any similarities in the way that the initial SigsS clients were able to configure. Were they sent individual emails? Called by TM directly to configure over the phone before the design studio was opened to others?

 

[bonnie]

Many, including me, were not around for the delivery of the SigS.....Can we learn from any similarities in the way that the initial SigsS clients were able to configure. Were they sent individual emails? Called by TM directly to configure over the phone before the design studio was opened to others?

In my mind, a completely different situation - Elon never stated the Model S would not be seen until the first one was delivered. That is a huge variable.

 

[schonelucht]

I thought he said owners would be configuring, not that an online design studio would be open. (And I obviously have a strong interest in this topic ...)

That's incorrect on two counts. The exchange in the last earnings release made it quite clear it's about ordinary customers with orders and that it really is the online design studio that should open before end of August. Here is the exchange

As far as the mollusk of goes last time Elon, you talked about configuration in July, and I understand with the slippage, but when can we start thinking about configuring cars who have orders out there, customers have orders? And then with about a month away from deliveries, when do you expect to show it to people?

We're probably into upper configuration and to a few weeks of the X. So that should go live on the Web site before the end of the month. In terms of the initial deliveries of the X, that's consistent with what we predicted on the last call, which is end of September.

I can't read these lines as anything else as an online design studio for the larger public which should come up by the end of this month. Also, the question refers to an exchange at the earnings release for Q1 when Elon spoke of something coming online in July 'it will be very similar to how it works for the Model S'.

 

[Newb]

I can't read these lines as anything else as an online design studio for the larger public which should come up by the end of this month. Also, the question refers to an exchange at the earnings release for Q1 when Elon spoke of something coming online in July 'it will be very similar to how it works for the Model S'.

I think one shouldn't read more into it than is actually there. Elon did not explicitly mention the design studio, and from a marketing standpoint it'd be better if Model X page got an update with a few teasers from the production vehicle first, before they launch the final design studio. It'd be less impressive if they just suddenly launched the design studio showing every detail of the final production car. That'd be un-Tesla somehow.

Elon loves to tease us to death, don't you know by now? :biggrin:

 

[mrdoubleb]

So I am a (small) shareholder, don`t have an X reserved and, needless to say, fully drank that Tesla and Elon kool-aid. Having said that... I think you guys are cutting a bit too much slack for Tesla/Elon on this one. This is turning into that famous Clinton "I never had sex with that woman" scenario where he later claimed he was technically correct as he does not define oral sex as, well, sex.

Elon was asked on both the Q1 and the Q2 earnings call about the X schedule. What everyone wanted to know is when can people who have been waiting on the X for years start to configure it online and when will the final car be shown to the public. Don`t tell me he did not know the questions were meant like that.

I get it, that we can interpret his words in ways that would save the embarrassment of another slip. I just don`t think that helps anyone.

The guy has an IQ of 130+, he fully understood what those analysts meant. The whole world (hyperbole, I know) is waiting for this car for years now. If the design studio does not go online for at least the sigs by the end of next week and if there is no media event taking place (be it a founders delivery press junket) until end of September, this will be taken as another slip by the market and the public. He cannot just say "yeah, but me and 2 VPs of the company got our cars delivered on September 30th so technically I didn't lie". Not if he wants some credibility left.

If he really wanted to say what some of you are trying to imply, why didn't`t he answer (on the last CC): "We expect 20-30 cars for the founders to be configured in August and delivered in September. We do that as a test run on the tools and to catch any last bugs. If all goes well, signature model X reservation holders should follow in Q4"?

 

[Matias]

This is a bit like waiting something important (end of the world, God becoming to earth, righteous people taken to heaven etc.) to happen in some specific day in many religious groups. Deadline (no pun intended) comes and goes, but people still believe. They only think that they interpreted saint writings wrong :biggrin:

 

[AnxietyRanger]

The upside of all this discussion is, whatever the outcome of Model X delays or lack there of, and Model X unveil timing, style and way, it will be educational.

We will be able to put a lot of how we interpreted Elon, Tesla, mule sightings and rumors into perspective once it is all said and done.

Should help TMC be even more accurate with Model 3.

 

[NigelM]

There are only 2 reasons Tesla wouldn't at least launch the X in the next 2 weeks:

1. They aren't ready to reveal the product because there are issues affecting the final design that they can't commit to yet.

2. The demand for model S has slacked to the point they are trying to ensure they can sell as many of those to potential X customers.

Continuing to shroud the X in secrecy can't really be taken as a positive for the company. Especially while they are going through the secondary offering, I just don't see how they can't go on record with some information since this product is critical for Tesla to provide the bridge the mass market Model 3.

Nonsense. Share price is up during the secondary anyway; the market is clearly looking on favorably.