What exquisite selectivity, Really don't have the desire to read his obtuse and rambling soliloquies
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
3Victoria
Active Member
Taking this to the correct thread.
Again you make the same mistake, you narrowly focus on a subset of the cars instead of thinking could this reasoning apply more broadly. And it does actually on any inventory car sold with a discount. Just make the discount larger and increase the fee. And yes, the overwhelming majority of cars sold from inventory are sold with a discount (currently running at >80% according to my tracking).
Again you make the same mistake, you narrowly focus on a subset of the cars instead of thinking could this reasoning apply more broadly. And it does actually on any inventory car sold with a discount. Just make the discount larger and increase the fee. And yes, the overwhelming majority of cars sold from inventory are sold with a discount (currently running at >80% according to my tracking).
@schonelucht any idea on what the demand is for powerwall and powerpack in Europe?
In the first week of January we will have another reveal of Gigafactory. Hopefully we will get capacity and output estimates nearterm, and also some hints towards batterypack cost.
In the first week of January we will have another reveal of Gigafactory. Hopefully we will get capacity and output estimates nearterm, and also some hints towards batterypack cost.
Hi
I am not. The trend is that "inventory" sales after being a fraction of total pre-built sales (inventory + demo fleet) are now majority of the sales. Unless you believe that obsolete cars will be more than a fraction of overall sales and sales of non-obsolete inventory cars with no demo miles will have discounts, your example is theoretical.
Again, I don't see that in the numbers. The draw down in visible inventory is clearly still overwhelmingly from cars with a discount. For example today (I snapshot this a bit earlier in the day, numbers have changed) I had a drawdown of 11 cars, 9 with a discount. Over the weekend there was a drawdown of 32, 28 of which were discounted. Etc. Let me know where you see different data.
No clue. I don't really track the energy side of the business. On the other hand, a big batch of cars was unloaded Nov 30th in Rotterdam. Tilburg + shipping to local stores adds maybe 2 weeks depending on location. Cutting it really close there!
It's surprising to me how little gigafactory related information leaks out. Hopeufully this gives Tesla the chance to come up with some really nice surprises during the January event. As yourself especially looking forward to hear about the roadmap on cell production at the gigafactory and estimates on when we can expect to see products based on cells produced there. Only negative is that this leaves the uncertainty in the market that maybe Gigafactory production isn't on schedule. We'll see!
dennis
Model S Plaid
Of those cars how many were:
- demo (I.e more that 50 miles)
- delivery miles only with AP1
- delivery miles only with AP2 and discounted
- delivery miles only with AP2 and no discount
Only sales in the third category would be abnormal.
When you say "discounted" are you talking about any price reduction beyond depreciation for time, mileage, and outdated features?
No, I mean any price reduction period. Reason of price reduction is irrelevant in this discussion because it falls within a larger argument about possibly shifting price around by reducing the head line price and increasing associated fees.
I am not sure I understand your point. The only significant price reductions on ev-cpo are on AP1 cars, which are now outdated models. Of 131 EAP cars in the U.S. only 12 have discounts, all of the cars with discounts have some mileage, and the largest discount is only $1200 for a vehicle with 399 miles (the list also includes two P100Ds with greater than 50 miles listed with a negative $2500 discount, whatever that means). Europe/Hong Kong is similar.
There is no credible evidence I am aware of Tesla having a practice of increasing list prices of EAP vehicles but increasing discounting to sell them, if that is what you are suggesting. Instead, the discounting is being used to move older models with outdated technology, which says basically nothing about demand for the current vehicles.
So IMO discounting practices on Model S, consistent with essentially all the other evidence, strongly suggest that demand for Model S is outstripping production.
For Model X inventory the picture is similar, but in addition there continue to be very few Model X available at all in inventory, another sign of strong demand.
Raising the price of S60 by $2000, discontinuing X60, very little X in inventory, pushing back ship dates on new US orders until March and comparable schedule overseas, very little discounting on current (EAP) models, increased option pricing, no Model S60 in inventory in US and little in Europe, all continue to point to very strong demand for both S and X.
This is all corroborated by VIN numbers running at a clip of 30,000 or so per 3 months (about 17-18K S and 13K X).
IMO, the evidence is overwhelming that since the introduction of EAP/FSD, demand has outstripped supply, and it appears clear that the delivery limits are on the production side, not demand side, as the order backlog grows. (Now that US orders are being produced and there is more visibility it seems that production is currently running at a good clip -- especially Model S.) Longer term there are also legitimate questions about whether increasing demand is a short-term or long-term trend (my money is on the latter), but I don't see how discounting of AP1 cars is relevant to that question. But perhaps you have a different opinion.
ev-cpo may show a price and a reduction for cars "put up on the internet". They do not show some of the cars not put on the internet but still sold off the lot and nobody knows the closing price agreed-upon by the buyer. An inventory car shown with $7000 discount that ends up aging a few more weeks might be let-go for $8000+ off near end of quarter.
Do you think your imagined "discounts" have any statistical relevance?
I'd say the reason for the price reduction is relevant if it's as a result of the existing practice of depreciation from age, miles, and outdated models.
Point is simple. Give a little bit more discount than you'd usually do on a vehicle that you'd discount anyway (reason doesn't matter). But then increase the delivery fee a bit. I am aware we can't verify the hypothesis because we don't know what Tesla's 'regular' discounting practice is. Especially with how it was botched and muddled last quarter up to the point that Elon himself had to intervene. But again, my point wasn't that this is certainly happening. My point was simply that we are often overlooking these sort of scenarios while coming the the conclusion that something else must therefore necessarily be true.
dennis
Model S Plaid
But we do know what their 'regular' discounting practice is. They discount for:
- age
- miles over the nominal "delivery" miles
- hardware that has been superseded by a visibly improved version (e.g. nosecone, AP)
There are many many exemplars visible in ev-cpo.com at any point in time.
Really? Then explain to me why Model S 60D 5YJSA7E26GF163885 | Tesla Nederland, a 96k car deserves a 1600 EUR discount, while Model S 90D 5YJSA7E23GF163634 | Tesla Belgique, a 118k car deserves a 7000 EUR discount.
Age? Nop. Same.
Miles? Nop. Same.
Superseded hardware? Nop. Same.
You'll find literally hunderds of pairs like that. Clearly we don't know the discount parameters. And even if we knew the factors we don't know by how much every parameter influences. It's pure guess work and Tesla can pretty much tweak it as they wish, easily hiding a few hunderd bucks extra discount in there somewhere.
Last edited:
Both are on AP1, so discount should be expected. 60/60D were discounted much less last September, just like the one above.
Similar threads
