Demand

[Zhelko Dimic]

But we do know what their 'regular' discounting practice is. They discount for:

- age
- miles over the nominal "delivery" miles
- hardware that has been superseded by a visibly improved version (e.g. nosecone, AP)

There are many many exemplars visible in ev-cpo.com at any point in time.

2 more that I know off:
- how many sales day left in the quarter (no, seriously, price of all Canadian inventory cars goes down $100 daily, until car gets snapped)
- local (Vancouver will usually have better discounts than Montreal, as incentives differ, and to ship the car is $2000)

But yeah, @schonelucht makes point that discounts get adjusted until car finds buyer, and I agree.

Discounts are loosely based on age, miles and more than anything outdated hardware, but are not fully defined by it, sales urgency obviously has an effect.

 

[dennis]

- how many sales day left in the quarter (no, seriously, price of all Canadian inventory cars goes down $100 daily, until car gets snapped)
- local (Vancouver will usually have better discounts than Montreal, as incentives differ, and to ship the car is $2000)

But yeah, @schonelucht makes point that discounts get adjusted until car finds buyer, and I agree.

Discounts are loosely based on age, miles and more than anything outdated hardware, but are not fully defined by it, sales urgency obviously has an effect.

And it makes sense that Tesla wants to minimize the amount of inventory it is holding at the end of a quarter. Hardware upgrades usually occur in the first couple of weeks of the new quarter which might further diminish the value of that inventory.

 

[EinSV]

Model X VIN numbers over the past two months have increased by about 9000-9500, or roughly a 13K-14K clip per quarter. This is about the same pace as Model S VIN issuance in Q2 and Q3 this year (approx. 14K/quarter).

I doubt this volume will be delivered in Q4 but based on this and other data it would not surprise me to see Q1 2017 Model X deliveries in the 13-14K range, IF production is able to ramp up.

Model X demand seems to be very robust, especially keeping in mind that the entry level Model X75D is more than $20K more expensive than the entry level S60 ($88,800 v $68,000 in the US).

Will be interesting to see how this plays out after the Model X pre-production order backlog is gone, but certainly seems promising.

 

[EinSV]

The one thing that I wish Tesla would do is assign the Vin # when the car goes into production, perhaps the "paint" stage. Doing it so early is not effective and it seems to be one of the ways that they can influence the stock price (IMO) because they can issue a Vin # and then issue another one without actually building the first one. Over the years, they have given out Vin #s as early as 3-months prior to production (or more). In Model S, they have given out 179,xxx Vin #s but have only built about 165k of them (thru end of Q4). This indicates "skipping" and "un-built" vin #s through time. It doesn't mean there are 15k backlog.

Moving this to the Demand thread instead of a delivery thread for Tesla customers.

Tesla has every right to use VIN numbers for whatever business purposes it chooses, rather than ignoring is business needs to make life easier for short sellers (or investors) trying to keep track of production volume or orders.

As far as your conclusion that the ramp up in VIN numbers does not necessarily mean there is a backlog in orders, if you look at the VIN numbers in light of other available information it is clear that they do. This other information includes delivery dates being pushed out to March in the US and most other markets, raising prices of base Model S60, discontinuing X60, absence of any unusual discounting activity, reports of demand rapidly increasing in China, etc.

Disregarding data when it does not fit preconceived assumptions is confirmation bias and generally leads to erroneous results. In this case, it has been clear for quite some time that your lowball estimates were off the mark. The steady increase of VIN numbers, which are running at a clip of about 30-31K per quarter (17-18K S and 13-14K X) confirms that.

 

[bonaire]

I'd like to know why so few Vin #s in the 26xxx MX series were reported (assignment 10/21-10/23) - heavy China/HK?

But yes, you're right they can do what they want with Vin #s - but they're seemingly the only car company in the industry who does it. The biggest gapper was in Aug/Sept 2014 when a lot of assigned Vin #s were re-assigned to new ones once the D event happened and people dropped RWD for DWD orders. A good 3000+ Vin #s were abandoned then for replacement higher ones.

Model S Vins
Qtr Vins built
2012 12-Q3 1280 352
Q4 2400 2,750
2013 13-Q1 6,200 5,000
Q2 7,004 5,400
Q3 6,500 5,900
Q4 6,900 6,587
2014 14-Q1 9,272 7,535
Q2 9,178 8,763
Q3 10,435 7,200
Q4 12,091 11,627
2015 15-Q1 12,259 11,160
Q2 12,315 12,807
Q3 14,769 13,091
Q4 13,383 13,530
2016 16-Q1 13,019 12,851
Q2 13,267 12,145
Q3 14,715 14,730
Q4 14,018 14100* (appx thru 12/12)
Totals 179,005 165,528

As you can see, the MS Vin # assignment is generally flat since 2015-Q3.

 

[EinSV]

I'd like to know why so few Vin #s in the 26xxx MX series were reported (assignment 10/21-10/23) - heavy China/HK?

But yes, you're right they can do what they want with Vin #s - but they're seemingly the only car company in the industry who does it. The biggest gapper was in Aug/Sept 2014 when a lot of assigned Vin #s were re-assigned to new ones once the D event happened and people dropped RWD for DWD orders. A good 3000+ Vin #s were abandoned then for replacement higher ones.

Model S Vins
Qtr Vins built
2012 12-Q3 1280 352
Q4 2400 2,750
2013 13-Q1 6,200 5,000
Q2 7,004 5,400
Q3 6,500 5,900
Q4 6,900 6,587
2014 14-Q1 9,272 7,535
Q2 9,178 8,763
Q3 10,435 7,200
Q4 12,091 11,627
2015 15-Q1 12,259 11,160
Q2 12,315 12,807
Q3 14,769 13,091
Q4 13,383 13,530
2016 16-Q1 13,019 12,851
Q2 13,267 12,145
Q3 14,715 14,730
Q4 14,018 14100* (appx thru 12/12)
Totals 179,005 165,528

As you can see, the MS Vin # assignment is generally flat since 2015-Q3.

VIN number assignment for Model S is up from about 14K/quarter in Q2/Q3 to 17-18K in Q4. I personally do not consider a 20-25 percent increase quarter over quarter to be "flat," especially given that Model S is already the best selling car in its class in the U.S. and some other markets. It is especially significant given that Model X production and sales are ramping, and the introduction of Model X undoubtedly attracted some buyers who in previous years would have bought an S.

Also, VIN number assignment for Model X is running in the 13/14K/quarter range, which is basically the same rate as Model S in the previous two quarters. That X VIN numbers/orders in Q4 appear to be about the same as Model S as recently as Q3 seems to me to be a very significant development, especially given questions that have been raised about whether Model X would be a hit due to Falcon Wing Doors, etc.

Given the absence of an X60 in the line-up and the $20K difference in a base Model X v. Model S I think it is fair to say that underlying demand for the Model X is now higher than demand for Model S was in Q2 and Q3.

Since tracking VIN numbers depends on owner self-reporting there are always some gaps. Orders from China/HK could be one explanation if there is a gap in reported VINs in the 26xxx range (I haven't checked).

I will be very interested to see Tesla's projections for 2017. It looks to me that they will be starting out the year with orders running at roughly 30K S/X per quarter or better. Not sure if they can increase production to 2500/week (assuming 12 weeks of production) to meet the demand. But either way it looks like Q1 will be even better than both Q3 and Q4, with increasing sales volume and increasing margins as Tesla completes the phase-out of X60 deliveries, has a full quarter of AP2/FSD deliveries, delivers S60 with increased base pricing ($66K to $68K in US), has increased prices in some foreign markets to adjust for the stronger dollar, continues to improve production efficiencies, etc.

 

[JRP3]

Relevant: Website wait times for delivery change

Looks like US deliveries were recently updated to late March from March for both S and X.

For comparison, on 12/14/2015 US Model S deliveries were updated to February from January -- see post #663:

 

[TMSE]

Folks,

Please share your estimates for Q4'16 here: Q4'16 Delivery Estimates

 

[Spidy]

As expected there are again some hidden Inventory cars that can only be found via the design studio, so ev-cpo.com numbers aren't very meaningful.

 

[EinSV]

Another major demand lever for S/X is about to come online for Q1/Q2 2017 -- Tesla store opening in South Korea, which the article below reports is one of the top 5 largest market worldwide for luxury cars, 11th for vehicles overall and one of the top 6 sources of Model 3 reservations, despite having no Tesla store open yet.

There also appears to be a movement afoot to change a quirky rule in South Korea that denies long range EVs the benefit of EV subsidies, which could help sales of 90s/P100s.

S.Korea considers new electric car rules as Tesla readies showroom

 

[Borrris]

Hopefully, reactivation of this old thread does not court someone's resentment, but I think that demand is an important topic.
When checking the Model S spreadsheet (Model S Order & Delivery 2017), I see a sharp decline of VIN-assignment-rate since approx. the beginning of February.
Is there any reasonable explanation except weak demand after phase-out of free supercharging?
And does anyone know a good source for Model X VIN assignment? To my knowledge there is no comparable (and up-to-date) spreadsheet and modelxtracker.com does also contain very few current data.

 

[schonelucht]

When checking the Model S spreadsheet (Model S Order & Delivery 2017), I see a sharp decline of VIN-assignment-rate since approx. the beginning of February.

Just to quantify this : in the month of January VINs assigned for the Model S were 182000 through 187100 or 5100 over a period of 4 weeks and a few days (avg 1200/wk). From February 1st through 22nd (exactly 3 weeks) we had assignments from 187100 through 118700 (avg 533/wk)

I agree that's a sharp slow down.

Is there any reasonable explanation except weak demand after phase-out of free supercharging?

My explanation : Tesla stopped production for inventory and showroom refresh. With a healthy known inventory (and an even healthier unknown inventory except for the rascals that dare to scrape the site for VIN permutations...) there simply is no need for additional inventory. Better to start working on producing more custom-build cars because lead times start to run up (3 months and counting). I am also suspecting that Tesla is not going to introduce anything new in the Model S/X the next few months, keeping their powder dry for the July Model 3 reveal. Therefore no need for showroom refresh either.

And does anyone know a good source for Model X VIN assignment? To my knowledge there is no comparable (and up-to-date) spreadsheet and modelxtracker.com does also contain very few current data.

If only! There used to be one Tesla Model X December Tracker but it hasn't caught on as the Model S tracker. I agree that the modelxtracker.com, albeit a nice website, isn't half as useful as the simple google spreadsheet for the S. At least when trying to track VIN assignments.

 

[schonelucht]

PS1. Re-opening this thread while pointing to a possible slow down in demand is sure to rip open old resentments. Bold move
PS2. As soon as I claim Tesla is not going to update S/X soon, they'll do.

 

[bonaire]

I'm going with 34,789 sold in Q1. Wait. Darn it, dropped the calculator and now it's acting up.

 

[bonaire]

At this point at end of Feb, I have roughly 14,350 assigned Vins (~87k annualized) combined for MS+MX. Many assigned in January could be future inventory builds-to-come. Similar thing happened last couple days of March 2016 where many Vins came up as inventory later in Q2 and Q3. See graph below.

But if they stop assigning inventory Vin #s for much longer, the whole picture changes. It may become that the factory is trying to start Model 3 even earlier than July in some sort of surprise move. We'll have to see.

The spikes in the graphs, such as 168xxx weren't really seen until they were put up on the Web and curated by the aggregators. Inventory Vin #s do not appear "as inventory" right away. Just how many December and January Vin # assignments will end-up as inventory? Time will tell.

Can you see why they announced that Model S had "45% more orders in Q1 2016 than Q1 2015"? Larger blocks of inventory on top of customer orders. These are only curated Vin #s - and not quiet ones that never made it to the web site or were shipped to Asia. These counts came primarily from ev-cpo and earlier in the year, Hank did not curate "non-visible" inventory which TeslaInventory.com does. I am probably low on the numbers up until later summer.

Don't forget to review the whole count structure. Many more Vins than built - many more built than sold.

 

[Spidy]

I think there are a lot of factors...


- Removing free Supercharger without lowering the price is somewhat of a price increase for some people and I think just the emotional factor of not having to worry was a big selling point.

- AP2 hardware was also a big demand lever, especially combined with phasing out free SC: Now that AP2 isn't working that great it might be a bit of the opposite until Tesla gets AP1 parity.

- New S60 and P100D from Q3 probably helped a lot in Q4 and early January combined with the two factors above.

- More used cars hitting the market. Probably not a insignificant amount of people buying into the free SC & AP2 cars sold their old Tesla and some of the buyers were probably considering a used 85k Model S vs. a new 60.

- Tesla is still rather increasing pricing instead of lowering them. While they are improving the car isn't getting any younger. Sure there are improvements, but I could still see this a factor for some people as Tesla doesn't do discounts.

- In addition to this the prices outside the US are going up due to the exchange rate and it's simply outside more and more peoples budget. I mean in the past it was a bit like "wow a Model S now costs up to 150k" and now that numbers is close to 200k. Sure it's the performance Model and everything, but the prices across the board have gone up.

- Hong Kong didn't extend the tax exception for EVs, While this was just publishes Tesla already warned of this on the website, so anyone somewhat interested probably ordered last year or early January to get delivery before the deadline.

- More competition. While on this forum a lot of people are a 100% set on EVs, I don't think every customers is. And now we also have the new 5-Series and Panamera hitting the market soon and they have a much more modern interior design than their predecessors.

- Model 3 is getting closer, probably makes people less like to jump on a low specced Model S.

 

[bonaire]

I think there are a lot of factors...


- Removing free Supercharger without lowering the price is somewhat of a price increase for some people and I think just the emotional factor of not having to worry was a big selling point.

- AP2 hardware was also a big demand lever, especially combined with phasing out free SC: Now that AP2 isn't working that great it might be a bit of the opposite until Tesla gets AP1 parity.

- New S60 and P100D from Q3 probably helped a lot in Q4 and early January combined with the two factors above.

- More used cars hitting the market. Probably not a insignificant amount of people buying into the free SC & AP2 cars sold their old Tesla and some of the buyers were probably considering a used 85k Model S vs. a new 60.

- Tesla is still rather increasing pricing instead of lowering them. While they are improving the car isn't getting any younger. Sure there are improvements, but I could still see this a factor for some people as Tesla doesn't do discounts.

- In addition to this the prices outside the US are going up due to the exchange rate and it's simply outside more and more peoples budget. I mean in the past it was a bit like "wow a Model S now costs up to 150k" and now that numbers is close to 200k. Sure it's the performance Model and everything, but the prices across the board have gone up.

- Hong Kong didn't extend the tax exception for EVs, While this was just publishes Tesla already warned of this on the website, so anyone somewhat interested probably ordered last year or early January to get delivery before the deadline.

- More competition. While on this forum a lot of people are a 100% set on EVs, I don't think every customers is. And now we also have the new 5-Series and Panamera hitting the market soon and they have a much more modern interior design than their predecessors.

- Model 3 is getting closer, probably makes people less like to jump on a low specced Model S.

One last factor here is that we've also see Tesla de-rate a few dozen 75's down to 60's in order to offer the same vehicle at $8500 lower price within the inventory. I suspect that if any buyer sees a 75 on a Tesla lot, they could ask for a de-rate down to 60 if they don't need the range of a 75. I would do that given that you could then charge to 100% daily (as a 60) and still get free supercharger access for the inventory cars that are delivered by April 15. I don't commute but for commuters who must do it in a Tesla who have less than a 70 mile drive to work, a 60 works fine.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

One last factor here is that we've also see Tesla de-rate a few dozen 75's down to 60's in order to offer the same vehicle at $8500 lower price within the inventory. I suspect that if any buyer sees a 75 on a Tesla lot, they could ask for a de-rate down to 60 if they don't need the range of a 75. I would do that given that you could then charge to 100% daily (as a 60) and still get free supercharger access for the inventory cars that are delivered by April 15. I don't commute but for commuters who must do it in a Tesla who have less than a 70 mile drive to work, a 60 works fine.

You can do that only on a car that has no discounts, i.e. has no km, it's not demo, full price. Once it has discount for whatever reason, you have to take it as-is.

 

[RobStark]

I think there are a lot of factors...

People in the know, aka TMCers et al, expecting an interior refresh between tomorrow and Model 3 Job 1 for Model S and Model X that should include more luxurious materials AND tech parity with Model 3.

You can't have Model 3 "like a space ship controls" then have S and X have controls from 2012 at double the price.

 

[neroden]

You can't have Model 3 "like a space ship controls" then have S and X have controls from 2012 at double the price.

You sure can. It was traditional for the "high end" GM brands to have *more old fashioned* interiors than the "midrange" brands. The midrange brands were "newer looking". It's actually a perfectly valid choice to have the high-end car look more conservative.

Making it more luxurious though... yeah, that would make sense.