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I think so too. The mass media (CNBC needs ratings...its viewership figures are bad) love to replay a clip of a TSLA catching fire a dozen times and trot out talking heads filling airtime for hours. Statistics about conventional cars catching fire are forgotten, perception becomes reality.
Don't get me even started about a clown like Clooney. Why is the media taking him seriously on his five-year-old TSLA remarks? In addition, Clooney is sitting on a board of a company announcing hydrogen cars over and over again - without any results apart from some prototype drives every other year. I bet he gets a handsome reward for that thanks to a well-known watchmaker's involvement (A pet project of the prior company CEO: Swatch Group chairman Nicolas G. Hayek angles actor George Clooney for new energy venture. - swissinfo.ch ). He should not be throwing stones sitting in a hydrogen glass house.
( That being said, another "series" of fires in a short period of time, sort of a freakish cluster in small-sample statistics, could of course hurt TSLA stock again short-term, at least in media perception.)
A burning car is more interesting to talk about on TV than DCF/sales projections vs market cap, car market and margin statistics or the TSLA battery supply chain. That was my focus deciding on a short position - in addition to momentum going crazy (similar to NFLX in summer of 2011).
I also closed half of my position earlier today.
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Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Realist,
Even though we are on opposing camps, I respect you writing out your reasoned response on your short. Unlike other people who posts with an agenda. Yours is a pure intention of making profit.
Even though we are on opposing camps, I respect you writing out your reasoned response on your short. Unlike other people who posts with an agenda. Yours is a pure intention of making profit.
Realist - So Consumer Reports' owners survey seems to debunk your theory that Tesla's warranty accruals are too low. If it is the most satisfying car to own on the roads today - BY FAR, then doesn't it follow that there are not excessive defects in the Model S? In fact, it implies that there are very few defects in the Model S. And this is in the first full year of production when cars typically experience the highest ratio of problems. This point needs to be repeated because it is so significant: best car on the road in its FIRST FULL YEAR OF PRODUCTION! So Tesla is likely to improve quality control and future owners are likely to have fewer defects going forward.
So while you won this most recent battle (I'm assuming you have had greater losses in the run up to $194), you clearly will be losing the war. I think you were lucky with all of the fire-related over-hype. Once the public learns that this is the greatest car ever created and it does not self combust, the stock will return to its skyrocket ways. The increase in ground clearance at highway speeds is likely to reduce the chance of more fires in the months to come. The eventual conclusion of the NHTSA report is likely to be a positive event as well. So that doesn't leave you with many scenarios of doom.
I'd be curious to hear your thoughts pertaining to your conclusion that Tesla is going to incur very high warranty costs in light of the actual experiences Tesla owners are enjoying with their Model S.
So while you won this most recent battle (I'm assuming you have had greater losses in the run up to $194), you clearly will be losing the war. I think you were lucky with all of the fire-related over-hype. Once the public learns that this is the greatest car ever created and it does not self combust, the stock will return to its skyrocket ways. The increase in ground clearance at highway speeds is likely to reduce the chance of more fires in the months to come. The eventual conclusion of the NHTSA report is likely to be a positive event as well. So that doesn't leave you with many scenarios of doom.
I'd be curious to hear your thoughts pertaining to your conclusion that Tesla is going to incur very high warranty costs in light of the actual experiences Tesla owners are enjoying with their Model S.
Well, my Lotus has lots of problems and I still love it. I believe many current Model S will defend their car regardless of problems.
And the Model S is still only roughly a year old. The Porsches have points above 90 and are much older cars. That is a very different story.
A few days ago I had the chance to look at the Model S again (still have not driven it yet) and once again I was shocked by the low quality level. Clearly the car gets a huge homeground bonus in the US. But at least in germany only very few customers will accept that standard on such an expensive car. The seats are a joke, it feels and smells like a cheap japanese minicar.
When I have finally driven the car I will report at this place.
And the Model S is still only roughly a year old. The Porsches have points above 90 and are much older cars. That is a very different story.
A few days ago I had the chance to look at the Model S again (still have not driven it yet) and once again I was shocked by the low quality level. Clearly the car gets a huge homeground bonus in the US. But at least in germany only very few customers will accept that standard on such an expensive car. The seats are a joke, it feels and smells like a cheap japanese minicar.
When I have finally driven the car I will report at this place.
sub
Active Member
It's funny how the rules only apply when it works out in your favor. I've read this in a couple of places this morning, "people tend to support the products they buy, that is why the Tesla was rated so high by it's owners'. Umm, didn't the people that rated the Porsche, the Volt, and all the other cars also buy those and would defend them just the same? Hypocritical much?
However, I do agree with you on some of the interior aspects of the Model S. I would not compare it to a cheap car, but I do feel that the interiors of some of the German brands are nicer. I ended up buying a used BMW to get me buy until I buy a Tesla, overall the interior is nicer than the Model S. However, to me and I think most Tesla current and future owners, that is a minor issue and it's not going to keep many people from buying the car when you look at the entire package. Yeah, my BMW has slightly nicer interior, but it burns gas (Diesel actually) and even though it's a CPO and was "inspected and certified" before I bought it, it was back at the dealer the first week getting 2 repairs, broken seat switch and they discovered an oil leak that needed to be fixed. Car is less than 2 years old. So, in comparison, BMW wins interior quality by a nose, Tesla wins everything else by a mile.
those seats are specially designed to hold your ass in place when you exert slight pressure with your right foot...
the smell is to accommodate crap-in-pants when you press it a little further... autobahn not withstanding
To each his own on subjective things like seats and "build quality," but compared to our BMW 5 series, the MS wins hands down. I love the MS seats compared to my BMW seats, and when I sold my eight year old 5 series earlier this year, things were falling apart all over the place. Seemed like I was spending $2k-3K a year on maintenance, and that doesn't include all of the little things that broke that we never fixed like cupholders, lights on the stereo display fritzing, A/C unit shorting out (but only in the summer when we really needed it to work), etc. My 5 series looked and felt very much like my Toyota Highlander, but worse. Pretty much anything that could fall apart was falling apart on the BMW. If that kind of German engineering is the gold standard, Tesla must be platinum. But again, to each his own.
To my eyes the Model S loses on quality not by a mile but lightyears. And to many customers quality is by far the most important aspect when buying a car.
Regarding the power and drivetrain. I have driven the Roadster so I know what to expect. It's going to be a smooth and powerful experience. But it is not really going to blow my pants. The fastest car I have driven so far is a 740hp Ferrari F12. So.....I am not THAT frightened.
Regarding the power and drivetrain. I have driven the Roadster so I know what to expect. It's going to be a smooth and powerful experience. But it is not really going to blow my pants. The fastest car I have driven so far is a 740hp Ferrari F12. So.....I am not THAT frightened.
Krugerrand
Meow
Do not mix up your personal preference with the preferences of others, or try to make the group you belong to bigger than it might actually be to satisfy your story.
If we're being honest with each other, the most important aspect of any *useful* car is that it get you from point A to point B in a safe and timely manner. The rest is just window dressing.
well said-
@ Realist - just joking around with you- I'm sure you're not frightened;
can't say that for myself though; I've driven that same Ferrari and it scared the hell outta me!
Doesn't sound like ModS would ever be your cup-of-tea though
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Indeed. Realists impression of the S are in direct conflict with the impressions of most people, including people who have owned many of the cars Realist claims are superior. Realist and Petersen will never appreciate a Model S, for whatever reasons....
To my eyes the Model S loses on quality not by a mile but lightyears. And to many customers quality is by far the most important aspect when buying a car.
Regarding the power and drivetrain. I have driven the Roadster so I know what to expect. It's going to be a smooth and powerful experience. But it is not really going to blow my pants. The fastest car I have driven so far is a 740hp Ferrari F12. So.....I am not THAT frightened.
I was reading your earlier posts, you must have gotten burned real bad from 100 all the way up to 150+ for as long as you held your short (hope it wasn't much over 150 as I believe you said that was your limit back in mid summer before Q2 report).
hope your bitterness doesn't impair your ability to appreciate superior auto engineering from Silicon Valley.
sub
Active Member
Its also ok that everyone doesn't want a model S, they can't make enough anyways. I was trying to think of a good example today and this is the best I could come up with. Some people like realist, Peterson, tftf (sp?) don't get it. They try to break down tesla and tsla using numbers and it doesn't work. I can compare it to America's general view/feelings about Soccer. We couldn't care less, and I'm a huge sports fan. However, it's the most popular sport in the world if I'm not mistaken? Explain that to me using the numbers? You can't, just like you will never understand why a company like tesla means so much to so many people. Good luck with your calculator. Hope I made some sense with that comparison, I've polished off a bottle of wine by myself this evening so maybe not . I get that people that missed the boat on the stock want it to crash so they feel better for having missed out, human nature, though they will never admit it. However, there are hundreds of stocks/companies doing well every day that I have no part of but I wish them all the best, go get em. Nothing but a bunch of envious haters trying to break tesla down if you ask me.
. I get that people that missed the boat on the stock want it to crash so they feel better for having missed out, human nature, though they will never admit it. However, there are hundreds of stocks/companies doing well every day that I have no part of but I wish them all the best, go get em. Nothing but a bunch of envious haters trying to break tesla down if you ask me.
Tesla's interior design is luxurious in a Bauhaus way. There are many who don't see minimalism as luxury, but prefer the English-gentlemen's-club level of fitment. Tesla's leather quality is markedly higher than that in my BMW 535; the plastics are at least equal between the cars. There are some places the BMW is better, particular the interior ambient lighting and carpet quality. But it's impossible to keep the 50+ knobs/dials/buttons clean on the BMW, while I can simply wipe the Tesla's center console with a microfiber cloth.
Robert, well said. "Less is more". I love the minimalism and form follows function approach of the Tesla interior. I do not admire the over-designed "aren't I impressive!" ostentatious look of many expensive luxury cars.
Personally I prefer internal combustion vehicles, but thats not based on dislike for Tesla or their cars. I think their cars are fantastic and I really hope they succeed. That said though, my list of "wants" in the car world does not have a Model S anywhere near the top. I just love working on my cars and I love the raw rumbling feel / sound of controlled explosions converted into forward momentum. Both of those things I would not have with the Model S. This forum is rather biased as far as EVs go (obviously) and I've seen a lot of people getting flak based on personal preference. Not everyone has the same opinion, and not everyone has to be "converted" to the EV mindset .
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Krugerrand
Meow
Clearly the BMW is better for finding lost contacts and...um...preventing rug burn. :wink:
Every investment has to work out based on numbers in the long term, unless it's a non-profit or charity.
You can for example dismiss my long posts about the billions of cells TSLA will need to achieve its sales estimates (car numbers/year the analysts model in for their lofty target stock prices). But these numbers will not go away/improve unless TSLA soon has a magic battery that is 5-10x better than anything on the market, the chance for this is very slim (and also the chance that this battery is unique to TSLA) - numbers again.
Short-term, any stock or the entire stock market can "disregard" the numbers, either in euphoria/bubbles or in depression, but not longer term. It's reverse to the mean over time based on the underlyings: numbers of cars sold, operating margins, competitor moves and overall size of the car market as well as future alternatives/substitute products (for example, better public transport).
As for the "haters" term, I try to do all my investments as un-emotionally as possible. I was both short and long TSLA in the past, I certainly wouldn't have been long as a "hater". Since you brought up sports examples: You should not treat an investment like a favorite sports team in my opinion; being a "fan" of the stock means emotional attachment, this is very dangerous when the position goes against you.
I mentioned "Behavioral Finance" in earlier posts, an important part of this is selective news filtering. If you only read news reinforcing your views (i.e. positive news on TSLA), this makes you less aware of risks. I became a much better investor listening to the other side all the time to re-adjust my views (especially after I take my positions).
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sub
Active Member
I read everything on Tesla, even the non stop SA bashing articles. I have actually seen a couple of comments from you in the past week that could almost be taken as positive, I almost replied to them and congratulated you. Let's take Peterson for example, he is so clearly against Tesla that you can't take anything he says seriously. He moves from one aspect of the company to the next. It's like right wingers that can say nothing good about Obama, ever. Really, he has never said or done one thing that you agree with? not possible.
My point wasn't to get emotional with the stock, or this company in particular. My point was that the naysayers don't get the change that has and is happening when it comes to the environment, wanting to get off oil etc. I'm not discounting your battery math, but I haven't done my own in depth, exhaustive research other than reading every opinion that has been presented on the subject. However, I'm an optimist, and I look at history. This problem will be solved like every other problem has been solved. I'm willing to risk the money I have in TSLA that my optimism will be rewarded, life is so much happier this way.
What I don't get is, if your a bear on TSLA at the moment, why waste so much energy? Place your bet and sit back and enjoy your profits if your that confident. The fact that your on here all day long and comment on every negative SA article downgrading tesla and the stock, tells me your not all that confident in your position. Short term the bears may get some of their money back, but most around here believe in the long term and are willing to wager on it. I tend to not listen to people that never have anything good to say about anything, I would rather go sit in the garage with my ICE running.
My point wasn't to get emotional with the stock, or this company in particular. My point was that the naysayers don't get the change that has and is happening when it comes to the environment, wanting to get off oil etc. I'm not discounting your battery math, but I haven't done my own in depth, exhaustive research other than reading every opinion that has been presented on the subject. However, I'm an optimist, and I look at history. This problem will be solved like every other problem has been solved. I'm willing to risk the money I have in TSLA that my optimism will be rewarded, life is so much happier this way.
What I don't get is, if your a bear on TSLA at the moment, why waste so much energy? Place your bet and sit back and enjoy your profits if your that confident. The fact that your on here all day long and comment on every negative SA article downgrading tesla and the stock, tells me your not all that confident in your position. Short term the bears may get some of their money back, but most around here believe in the long term and are willing to wager on it. I tend to not listen to people that never have anything good to say about anything, I would rather go sit in the garage with my ICE running.
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