Devils advocating...from someone who shorted TSLA

[tftf]

Giga factory is a walk in the park. Tedious perhaps, but not difficult.

I don't disagree achieving the goal is possible, but it won't be a walk in the park imho. Sending a rocket to space every few months is one thing, sending a rocket to space every week and keeping costs, quality control and the time schedule in line is another to continue the analogy.

Anyway, the arguments have been laid out. We should see the first milestone in about 12 months if my timeline estimates are roughly valid:

By late 2014 or early 2015 TSLA will have to get the funding (for example from the DoE or private investors or a mix), get the permits and then build the plant (start construction later in 2015) on their own or in a JV with a battery supplier (that list is short: Panasonic, LG, Samsung and maybe, maybe BYD, but I guess one the first three).

 

[Krugerrand]

I don't disagree achieving the goal is possible, but it won't be a walk in the park imho.

I can conclude that you feel building a giga factory is at least on par in terms of difficulty with the establishment and accomplishments of SpaceX and Tesla to date. Awesome. We continue to disagree. Next.

 

[Realist]

So the Realist is back and for the moment I have changed the side.

I am long Tesla Motors. For now :-D

There is truly an irrational high short ratio at the stock and I see a very high probability of a new squeeze. Demand for the Model S is still very robust and with Model X and Model E coming up, there are also some potential catalysts ahead.

I have to say that I also underestimated the demand for an emission free electric car in this class. I tried to compare this car with a conventional vehicle but a lot of people simply want to drive electric. I am not in this camp. I found the Model S really disappointing to drive. Poor performance under hard driving, quality issues, comfort etc………. But that is my subjective point of view and many people think differently. I am a very conventional old fashioned car guy and I still believe sales will be underwhelming in germany.

But in the US it is a different story and that is the market that really matters for Tesla

 

[uselesslogin]

I feel like the squeeze should start today just because you are long. Welcome back! I miss his thread. Actually I still miss it since now you are long there isn't much debating to do. I also don't think there will be strong demand in Germany until there is better range and faster charging. Though you would know better than I would anyway.

 

[Zythryn]

Welcome back Realist.
Even though I disagree with you on many points, I do appreciate your contributions.

i also appreciate that you admit you underestimated the demand.

However, I have to point out that many of the test drivers at a recent test drive event did not have the zero emissions aspect at top of mind. It was the incredible quality of the drive. Unmatched by any ICE vehicle.
The day to day drive quality of the car is unmatched. The racing speed handling may not be, but this car isn't targeted at that group.

It will be interesting to see how Tesla does in Germany, Europe and Asia as time goes by.

 

[JRP3]

Good timing on being long instead of short.

 

[Discoducky]

So the Realist is back and for the moment I have changed the side.

I am long Tesla Motors. For now :-D

There is truly an irrational high short ratio at the stock and I see a very high probability of a new squeeze. Demand for the Model S is still very robust and with Model X and Model E coming up, there are also some potential catalysts ahead.

I have to say that I also underestimated the demand for an emission free electric car in this class. I tried to compare this car with a conventional vehicle but a lot of people simply want to drive electric. I am not in this camp. I found the Model S really disappointing to drive. Poor performance under hard driving, quality issues, comfort etc………. But that is my subjective point of view and many people think differently. I am a very conventional old fashioned car guy and I still believe sales will be underwhelming in germany.

But in the US it is a different story and that is the market that really matters for Tesla

Proof or it didn't happen

 

[SFOTurtle]

Hell must be freezing over.

 

[uselesslogin]

Should have bought more calls when I saw Realist going long.

 

[techmaven]

I give Realist credit for seeing the situation and posting before the event happened.

 

[bonnie]

So the Realist is back and for the moment I have changed the side.

I am long Tesla Motors. For now :-D

Now what do I do? My world has completely imploded. I'm lost.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

Now what do I do? My world has completely imploded. I'm lost.

sell? :tongue:
short?

find a new world?

 

[bonnie]

Now what do I do? My world has completely imploded. I'm lost.

sell? :tongue:
short?

hold.

 

[MikeC]

Welcome to the light side, Realist. Isn't it much more fun over here?

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

hold.

ah, yes. good idea

I considered getting more last night but my unused $ was all being used

 

[NigelM]

So the Realist is back and for the moment I have changed the side.

I am long Tesla Motors. For now :-D

I swear I can hear angels singing.... ;-)

 

[Discoducky]

I swear I can hear angels singing.... ;-)

Maybe we'll get a Tesla grin too? That's the pic I'm hoping for.

 

[Zythryn]

Hell must be freezing over.

Hell Freezes Over | Funny Sign Pictures

 

[vin5xxx]

Well hell has frozen over. Realist, congrats on making the switch and announcing before the market opened today. What great timing you had!!!!

Now, as to your comments about the drive quality and build quality. You are in the EXTREME minority on both of these issues (winner of all of the COTY awards...c'mon). So I wonder if your predisposition against Tesla's success is driven by nationalistic pride. Are you in the German car industry? It seems pretty clear to me that you are not happy about an American car leading the automotive world into new territory. If it helps, don't think of American cars as Detroit anymore. Think of the new American car frontier springing from Silicon Valley. Those are 2 vastly different worlds.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

Realist - I really, really hope you went long with real money and not just sentiment before the run up this morning!

As for the driving experience, I was (and continue to be every day for a year now) blown away with the Model S performance. Peak torque from 0 rpm, powerful linear acceleration, and no transmission to fumble around with lag. Nothing else compares. And my last three cars were performance Audi's (S4) and a BMW (M3). Compleletley won this German car fan over, permanently.

I'd encourage you to give the Model S another test drive. Hopefully soon they'll be available for longer test drives there.