Devils advocating...from someone who shorted TSLA

[chickensevil]

Stock is down today, and the market is really taking a pounding from all this QE tappering talk and the emerging market/china slopes. Here is hoping that things stay stable until the 19th!!! After that, I don't care since I will be dumping my position out because I will be using it to buy my car!

But it is really nice that Realist has turned around! This helps make me even more confident in the direction I am expecting it to go. Analysts are still holding out for an .18 EPS, which I highly expect to be much, much more than that. So if the conditions remain the same, expect a lot of covering on the Feb 22/March 7 options!!!

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

Fwiw, I own both a BMW 535 and a Tesla Model S. In my view, the Tesla has superior fit/finish, and vastly better driving dynamics at US highway speeds. The only clear plus for the BMW is more 12v power outlets.

Same here now. The interior of the 535 is nice but panel gaps on exterior are better on the S. Driving the 535 (2011) is not a pleasant experience. brakes work good but it sucks that you need to use them.
I think I sold an S to a kid that was looking at a BMW 650 or an A7 (apparently a 'grower' since he said he was also getting a Land rover next week.)

My cousin in law is/was visiting CA(Bay Area) from Munich (currently getting his masters in Austria in business/finance) I wanted him to school me on options some (didn't happen yet) but he was saying that TSLA is way overvalued currently but I think his opinion might have changed a little after taking him on a Factory tour / drive to Santa Cruz and S.F. + seeing how many are on the road in the local area

I'll just say he was very impressed by the factory and its Germanic cleanliness + the layout of everything and how well it is all though out.

Does anyone know what the new building on the south of the property is for?

 

[mershaw2001]

I am impressed that people continually come out of the woodworks to short tesla. I started thinking that short interest would decrease, but the number of people jumping on the short wagon (can we call it the short bus at this point) seems to keep on growing. I bought options today for next week, 180 strike.

 

[chickensevil]

Ok guys the market has fallen down but TSLA remains rock solid.

The short ratio is still very high and people continue to view the company as overvalued.

I believe we can see a squeeze post earnings. I have doubled my position at current levels.

So how did you do? Seeing as we are now post earnings! You extremely happy to be a bull like the rest of us?

 

[Realist]

I did quite well so far, although I sold some shares at 200 going into earnings.

Bought back now at 213. I believe we might see 250 in a few weeks time.

 

[sleepyhead]

I did quite well so far, although I sold some shares at 200 going into earnings.
We
Bought back now at 213. I believe we might see 250 in a few weeks time.

Nice!

Isn't it a lot more fun to be making money in TSLA rather than losing it?

 

[Causalien]

I did quite well so far, although I sold some shares at 200 going into earnings.

Bought back now at 213. I believe we might see 250 in a few weeks time.

Wow. The day when Realist is more bullish than me...

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Wow. The day when Realist is more bullish than me...

Realist is bullish on the general bullishness.

 

[Causalien]

Realist is bullish on the general bullishness.

It's a derivative on a derivative. An Ass Backward Security!!!

 

[Zythryn]

If this were any other stock, and Realist had turned bullish on it, I would be selling
(Just kidding Realist)

 

[vin5xxx]

Welcome to the club Realist! Let's all make some more money together!

 

[chickensevil]

Yeah, I think the stock price is "stuck" at 210 until people see what happens with the factory plans... So assuming that news gets taken well, we should be good for another pop! I think this is the only announcement that would have the power to stop the stock in it's tracks simply because there is the very real posibility of a major dilution of the shares. If they raise 5B on an offering (very likely), then we could see the stock stay put or even go down, because you just jumped the market cap by 20%! They will need to have a VERY solid plan going forward to NOT have that 5BN offering kill the share price.

On the other hand, Maybe they only raise another 1B in funding, get some money put forward by some of their "partners", and then take out a loan. That might not get taken so harshly.

I am not trying to sound negative at all here on this one. It is anyone's guess how the market will take it. I WANT them to build the factory no matter how they have to do it because it will be critical for the future success of the company. I am just really nervous about the announcement haha!

 

[TD1]

with 5Billion they could do it without any partners.
Even If there is a dilution than my guess is around 1 Billion max.

 

[StapleGun]

If they raise 5B on an offering (very likely)

I doubt it will be near that much. Elon said they could do it without raising capital if they had more than three years. By itself that's an incredibly vague statement but I think that it shows they at least considered not raising capital and were able to make the numbers work. I can't imagine them expecting $5 billion of free positive cashflow in a ~5 year timeframe in this scenario where they do not have the gigafactory.

 

[Realist]

245 sold.

I am out.

 

[Krugerrand]

I doubt it will be near that much. Elon said they could do it without raising capital if they had more than three years. By itself that's an incredibly vague statement but I think that it shows they at least considered not raising capital and were able to make the numbers work. I can't imagine them expecting $5 billion of free positive cashflow in a ~5 year timeframe in this scenario where they do not have the gigafactory.

I agree, BUT...imagine what Tesla could do with $5 billion. Oh, there go a bunch of exploding heads.

 

[keithz]

@Realist

What price would you buy back in at?

 

[Realist]

I am staying on the sidelines for the moment and wait for details on the next capital increase and giga factory.

 

[JRP3]

245 sold.

I am out.

Too soon :wink:

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Too soon :wink:

It's the people who sell too early that usually enjoy a good life Vs the ones that sell too late. Congrats Realist on turning the table and going long, TSLA has rewarded that quite well I think