A flagship is a very limited market. It doesn't take much to be the market leader in that segment for a few years. What works for the flagship market rarely ever works for the bread and butter parts of the market. The customers in each segment have quite different sensibilities, so trying to extrapolate from the niche performance of the S to what the 3 will do is pretty much pointless.
I think the extrapolation is rather straightforward and easily relateable. Because the Model 3 will be facing the same primary competitors on the low end as Tesla currently demolishes on the high end. And, where the Model S led people who would not have considered going upmarket before to do so, much the same will happen with Model 3. Oh, and because those
'competitors' have no
'answer' for Model 3, just as they didn't
(and still don't) for Model S. See? That was easy.
The Honda Accord is the flagship of that marque's product lineup. It is the perennial #2 in U.S. sales behind the Toyota Camry in its market segment. And those two cars outsell the BMW 7-Series by dozens-to-one each. The 7-Series used to be the perennial #2 to the Mercedes-Benz S-Class -- a pattern that similarly lasted DECADES, as has been the case with Accord and Camry -- not
'a few years'. Now the 7-Series is #3 year in and year out, though its sales improved in 2016 over 2015, it is still behind what the Model S managed in either 2013 or 2014.
Please note the Hyundai Sonata has been around perhaps 25+ years or so, and has been pretty much just as good as entry-level Accord and Camry for at least twenty of those years. But the Sonata has only just begun to appear in the top ten passenger vehicles sold in the U.S. on a regular basis since circa 2012 or so. During 2016 though, both Camry and Accord risked being toppled in sales totals by their respective stablemates, Corolla and Civic, in U.S. sales. The overlap in their price points, feature sets, and size
(they are all considered Midsize by the EPA) made for some tight competition among them. My point is that a flagship vehicle need not be
'exclusive' or a poor seller nor a
'luxury' car unattainable by the masses.
There are trim levels for Accord, Camry, Malibu, and LaCrosse that exceed $30,000 and approach or exceed $35,000. Those are all better equipped than a bone stock BMW 320i that stickers for $33,450 -- heck, that car may not be as well appointed as a Camry LE at $23,070. That $10,000 markup for rear wheel drive and a German badge is a large part of why the BMW usually sells at over 100,000 units per year, while the Toyota usually clears 400,000 units with ease in the U.S.
But sales of both those perennial market segment leaders were off considerably during 2016. Industry ANALysts seem fond of claiming that sales loss was due to the popularity of Crossover/Compact SUVs
(CR-V, RAV4, Rogue, and Escape) as compared to Sedans. That theory does hold some water. But not all of it. I suspect a large part of the decline in their sales has been in anticipation of the Model 3 arriving on the scene.
Yes, people on the lower end of the market will be more critical of physical feature sets. They want to get the most for their money. So they can be more easily distracted by shiny objects while also being overly critical of anything that appears to be
'missing' somehow. Someone buying a Caterham 7 or Lamborghini may not blink at the absence of coat hooks or bin storage, while someone comparing an Odyssey, Sierra, or Sedona may make their final decision on the quality of the vanity lighting, convenience of sunglass storage, or number of cupholders
(3.5 per passenger, minimum).
But the Acura TLX, Alfa Romeo Giulia, AUDI A4, BMW 3-Series, Cadillac ATS, Infiniti Q50, Jaguar XE, Lexus IS, and Mercedes-Benz C-Class must all endure the same levels of competition. Two of those, XE and Giulia, just came out in the closing months of 2016 and no one comments about the field being somehow
'too crowded' for them to survive. Trust that neither of them will outsell the Model 3 -- ever.
BMW has said for decades that they build only one thing. The 3-Series is their representative vehicle for that
'one thing'. Problem is, since 2012 it has been proven time and again that BMW's pride and joy has been exposed as an also-ran in head-to-head competition with vehicles from other manufacturers. Other cars drive better, perform better, feel better -- both on the road and at the track. That includes the XE and Giulia. Soon it will include the Model 3 as well. No matter how much window dressing that BMW or other ICE manufacturers throw at the problem, it will not be enough to conceal the fact that the Model 3 will be better in all the ways that matter. And the warmth and comfort of SUV sales that traditional automobile manufacturers enjoy probably won't last long beyond the release of Model Y.
