Does $8B worth of reservations justify another Gigafactory?

[nativewolf]

Many people have commented that this truck will be very simple to produce... no stamping presses, no paintshop. Just laser cut flat steel sheets, bend and fold. Since GF1 is making motors and battery packs already, it would be easy to add a simple assembly line to cut and paste the sheet metal around the motors and batteries. Lots of room at GF1.

Really hoping you are right! The technical discussions on the truck frame are really interesting. Personally i'll drive an avocado if it can go 500 miles and tow 14k lbs without diesel so the looks don't matter. The stainless steel is a huge bonus for us simple working folk.

 

[nativewolf]

You missed the point of this thread. It doesn't justify a new factory because the reservation numbers are not going to be a reliable indicator of the trucks delivered. Yea it is good advertisement for tesla like how apple does it with preorders but the numbers don't justify another factory.

Model 3 had 420k reservations and they still have not sold that many. They supposedly finished the reservation list last year. They don't release the cancellation numbers for obvious reasons. I would guess the reservations were at least more reliable at 1k. I bet the cancellations were substantial.

I believe the conversion was actually much higher than forecast. $100 is not a huge risk for buyers so maybe they might back out faster than the model 3 buyers. Maybe not...the specs on the truck are unique. For me there are not comps in the proposed EV world and the diesel world would be a similar price...and still have to f with diesel. We already use 100 gallons a day or more in our heavy equipment, I don't want it in my pickup.

 

[P3dStealth]

I believe the conversion was actually much higher than forecast. $100 is not a huge risk for buyers so maybe they might back out faster than the model 3 buyers. Maybe not...the specs on the truck are unique. For me there are not comps in the proposed EV world and the diesel world would be a similar price...and still have to f with diesel. We already use 100 gallons a day or more in our heavy equipment, I don't want it in my pickup.

The specs on the truck are only unique till the electric F150 comes out at around the same time this. The electric F150 prototype is on youtube towing a train.

I am wondering what ford will do to compete with these looks now though.

 

[mspohr]

The specs on the truck are only unique till the electric F150 comes out at around the same time this. The electric F150 prototype is on youtube towing a train.

I am wondering what ford will do to compete with these looks now though.

I don't see how Ford can compete. Not on specs, performance and especially price.
They are institutionally incapable of copying the design and the design is key to the low cost.

 

[P3dStealth]

I don't see how Ford can compete. Not on specs, performance and especially price.
They are institutionally incapable of copying the design and the design is key to the low cost.

You haven't seen the Mach E? They totally copied the Model Y and it is cheaper.

I would have agreed that Ford can't compete but Ford invested 500 million in Rivian. Ford and Rivian have agreed to work together to develop an "all-new, next-generation battery electric vehicle for Ford’s growing EV (electric vehicle) portfolio using Rivian’s skateboard platform," Ford said in its statement.

The rivian truck performance wise is already amazing and on par with the 3 motor cyber truck. I bet you will see a cheaper ford version and a raptor version of the Rivian. Tesla and Rivian are luxury brands. Ford is not. Ford pretty much bought into the market.

 

[Beltsbear]

I fully intend to buy. But I would not have reserved this early out if the deposit was $1000. $500 I would have done.

 

[Zorg]

I disagree. The mach e needs 20kwh more to just match the model Y specs. On the cybertruck, that would equal to another 50 or 60KWh in extra battery capacity to match specs. Since Ford will stick to a truck with the Cx of a brick, they will not be able to match Tesla's specs, not even close. I am guessing that the big 3 became worried when Tesla released its truck capabilities.

 

[Uncle Paul]

These trucks look like they will be so simple to build that they could do it inside a tent..(had to go there)

 

[mspohr]

You haven't seen the Mach E? They totally copied the Model Y and it is cheaper.

I would have agreed that Ford can't compete but Ford invested 500 million in Rivian. Ford and Rivian have agreed to work together to develop an "all-new, next-generation battery electric vehicle for Ford’s growing EV (electric vehicle) portfolio using Rivian’s skateboard platform," Ford said in its statement.

The rivian truck performance wise is already amazing and on par with the 3 motor cyber truck. I bet you will see a cheaper ford version and a raptor version of the Rivian. Tesla and Rivian are luxury brands. Ford is not. Ford pretty much bought into the market.

Rivian is a lot more expensive than the Tesla. They won't be able to compete.

 

[RonFTW]

That $8B sales is only like $1B in profit really...

VW Net profit margin is 6.4%.
Ford is 1%.
GM is 6.6%.
I could go on.
Your suggestion would be a margin of “only” 12.5%.

Your marginalization of that generalization shows poor knowledge.

 

[RonFTW]

You guys are philosophically viewing the reservation numbers all wrong. It’s not about the exact numbers but the probable potential sales it could create that would lead to momentum in sales.

200k in 2-3 days and then how many in 2 years?

Even if 50% don’t buy, the numbers are still great.

 

[nativewolf]

You guys are philosophically viewing the reservation numbers all wrong. It’s not about the exact numbers but the probable potential sales it could create that would lead to momentum in sales.

200k in 2-3 days and then how many in 2 years?

Even if 50% don’t buy, the numbers are still great.

To me the real issue is where...where do they build this. Where do they build the y (at scale) and where do they build the semi. Huge demand for all, I'd think you would have a new US factory at some point. I am sure it will sell, is the sale, 8k/month or 15k/month...I don't know. Just on specs nothing is touching this, good for Tesla but not so great for the rest of the world unless Tesla can scale up. They need to be at the scale of a million cars/model/year. Shanghai..meh...I get it but meh. Berlin...risky but ballsy...I get it and applaud. Not sure where the rest of production is going to come from at this time.

 

[mspohr]

To me the real issue is where...where do they build this. Where do they build the y (at scale) and where do they build the semi. Huge demand for all, I'd think you would have a new US factory at some point. I am sure it will sell, is the sale, 8k/month or 15k/month...I don't know. Just on specs nothing is touching this, good for Tesla but not so great for the rest of the world unless Tesla can scale up. They need to be at the scale of a million cars/model/year. Shanghai..meh...I get it but meh. Berlin...risky but ballsy...I get it and applaud. Not sure where the rest of production is going to come from at this time.

The production line is much less complex than other cars. No paint shop, no big stamp presses. Just laser cutting and bending jigs. That is the real genius of the design. Should be lots of room at GF1 where they already make the motors and battery packs.

 

[Saghost]

They will build the CyberTruck in the US. Pickups are king in the Americas, but not elsewhere. I think GF1 or an adjacent location would be perfect for building trucks. Close to main engineering in Palo Alto and the manufacturing expertise in Fremont. Also lower cost of living for people from the Fremont plant making the big commute from the Central Valley.

They have to build US trucks domestically, or the chicken tax will get them. Not sure if there will be enough demand outside the states to justify a factory elsewhere as well.

As far as speeding up the schedule, I don’t think it is factory capacity that’s setting the pace here.

To deliver the truck that was on stage, they need a regulatory change that’s supposedly been in work for a while but has no definite schedule that I’ve seen - something to relieve the FMVSS requirement to have a flat left mirror and a convex right mirror.

They also need crash testing, and for the most capable and popular version they need to wring out the Plaid powertrain. They might also need to get some of their Maxwell tech into mainstream production for the massive pack.

There’s a limit to how fast you can get a product like this to market even if you can throw a lot of money at it, and the tech in the Cybertruck is connected to several other projects and needs to be matured.

 

[Zorg]

They have land to expand GF1, and it makes more sense to build the truck next to the battery line.