Drop in interest in EV's and further Tesla price cuts

[SaffaT3sla]

No way demand is higher than supply in the uk. Quite the opposite. Probs walk into a new car if you wanted. Can’t see that changing, unless they drop prices even further. Probs will at some point. Such a luxury brand.

Yep, every time I drive into Brent Cross I can't help but notice 100's of Model Y's parked in the outer parking area (and they have been there for months now). There is a huge surplus of stock in UK and waiting times have gone from months to days. I did a count at my kid's school last week during pickup and 1 out of 12 cars was either a Model 3 or Y and I keep getting lease deal offers for under £500 for Model Y's - so I suspect this figure is only going to grow as prices continue to drop.
Don't get me wrong, I still love my car and would not swap it for anything out there right now - but it's going to be as common as the iPhone in 24 months time if prices continue to drop

 

[Epico]

but it's going to be as common as the iPhone in 24 months time if prices continue to drop

It's quite a conflicting thought this isn't it. Great that there is the transition to EVs, but also a bit of a bugger as probably means the value of my car will be less than hoped at resale time

 

[WannabeOwner]

probably means the value of my car will be less than hoped at resale time

I think:

Price of EVs will drop (battery manufacture gets cheaper, etc.)
Price of 2nd hand will drop to match
The differential cost, to you, between the value of selling your car, 2nd hand, and buying a new car will remain about the same

So although your car will be worth less than you expected, the cost of "trade it in and buy a new one" will be same or, more likely, less.

Its also possible that 2nd hand price will strengthen (not fall as far as my thought above, so you will have less "make up cost" to buy a new car)

ICE is a dead end, so perhaps?? more and more people will want 2nd hand EV ... and then "more buyers than sellers" comes into play. There are only so many Tesla M3 / MY - no "really old ones" and so on. Only those sold since M3 first arrives, and a year ago when MY first arrived ...

 

[Lord Farquad]

I think:

Price of EVs will drop (battery manufacture gets cheaper, etc.)
Price of 2nd hand will drop to match
The differential cost, to you, between the value of selling your car, 2nd hand, and buying a new car will remain about the same

So although your car will be worth less than you expected, the cost of "trade it in and buy a new one" will be same or, more likely, less.

Its also possible that 2nd hand price will strengthen (not fall as far as my thought above, so you will have less "make up cost" to buy a new car)

ICE is a dead end, so perhaps?? more and more people will want 2nd hand EV ... and then "more buyers than sellers" comes into play. There are only so many Tesla M3 / MY - no "really old ones" and so on. Only those sold since M3 first arrives, and a year ago when MY first arrived ...

I’m definitely seeing lots of 2nd owner cars. Of the Tesla owners I know in work 3 of the 4 bought a used one. Demand is there and it’ll only grow as ICE gets phased out.

 

[kelvin 660]

I think that the magority of the ICE brigade hope that the present 2030 dealine gets extended. Most people don't like change and unless EV's become significantly cheaper they will not be interested in making the change and putting up with the perceived hassle of an EV... Particularly people that cannot home charge.

 

[father_of_6]

I think that the magority of the ICE brigade hope that the present 2030 dealine gets extended. Most people don't like change and unless EV's become significantly cheaper they will not be interested in making the change and putting up with the perceived hassle of an EV... Particularly people that cannot home charge.

Seems like with Tesla's inventory bloat we might see prices continue to plummet... and they're still increasing production capacity.

That's going to force the competition to continue selling at a loss for a while.

 

[Mrklaw]

Yep, every time I drive into Brent Cross I can't help but notice 100's of Model Y's parked in the outer parking area (and they have been there for months now). There is a huge surplus of stock in UK and waiting times have gone from months to days. I did a count at my kid's school last week during pickup and 1 out of 12 cars was either a Model 3 or Y and I keep getting lease deal offers for under £500 for Model Y's - so I suspect this figure is only going to grow as prices continue to drop.
Don't get me wrong, I still love my car and would not swap it for anything out there right now - but it's going to be as common as the iPhone in 24 months time if prices continue to drop

The device that doesn’t have the volume market share that android does, but has the profit share sewn up? Tesla would love to be that

 

[father_of_6]

The device that doesn’t have the volume market share that android does, but has the profit share sewn up? Tesla would love to be that

I appreciate Tesla, but in reality... if Tesla hits rock bottom and goes out of business in a few years, they'll still have done everyone a great service.

Hopefully what happens instead is that they mature a bit as a company, increase their service centers and charging network, and prices continue to drop as costs do.

 

[ringi]

Tesla haven’t sold more cars than they’ve made in any of the last 4 quarters using their own data.

Inventory levels are higher than ever

With increased production and sales it is expected for inventory levels to increase, hence need to look at how long each car is in inventory while deducting the time it's listed as being in inventory but is on a ship.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

With increased production and sales it is expected for inventory levels to increase, hence need to look at how long each car is in inventory while deducting the time it's listed as being in inventory but is on a ship.

I agree, but only up to a point. Inventory increases seem to be way more than what would be proportionate to increases in production. There’s way over 1000 inventory cars in the U.K. right now, this time last years you had a 6 month or more wait. Time will tell, but with price drops, incentives, further end of quarter discounting and still lots of inventory, the least we should be able to agree on is the market is very different to what it was

 

[ringi]

There’s way over 1000 inventory cars in the U.K. right now,

How do you know they are in the UK rather than on a ship?
How many orders are Tesla taking per week?
Do we know if cars on ships are listed as inventory in both UK and Ireland?

If Tesla gets the pricing maths correct then cars will not be in the UK for more then a few weeks before selling and most buyers will not need to wait more then a week or two between order and collecting.

Being able to get a company car lease without a long delay is partly why more company car drivers are choosing a Tesla. Afterall we don't expect a wait to get a iPhone or TV after placing the order so why should cars be different?

 

[MrT3]

How do you know they are in the UK rather than on a ship?
How many orders are Tesla taking per week?

We don’t other than people seeing dozens sitting at various locations. All we know is that Tesla sales are down Q1 23 vs Q1 22 14% and this isn’t just due to economic issues as car industry as a whole was up 18% over the same period as other manufacturers are able to produce more as their supply chain issues are easing. It’s not an EV issue either, just Tesla, as their sales were up 15% despite Tesla’s performance which greatly affects the EV sales number.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

There is an assumption that inventory appears under the same criteria as it always has, probably when put on the ship in China and doesn’t match an order, it gets listed as for sale, and on that basis there’s loads more around. As MrT3 says, Tesla figures in the UK are down v same quarter last year. Everyone got excited that the MY was the best selling car, but that wasn’t the full story as M3 sales tanked with the arrival of the MY.

 

[WannabeOwner]

Tesla sales are down Q1 23 vs Q1 22 14%

Q1 22 was when the MY arrived in UK. Loads of back orders and, perhaps, manufacturing / ships / etc. etc. diverted to produce more RHD than would normally be the case - it would have brought benefit from some economies-of-scale, and a boost to marketing by flooding the market with MYs.

That might not be the reason for the disparity 23 vs 22 ... but I think it contributed.

 

[MrT3]

Q1 22 was when the MY arrived in UK. Loads of back orders and, perhaps, manufacturing / ships / etc. etc. diverted to produce more RHD than would normally be the case - it would have brought benefit from some economies-of-scale, and a boost to marketing by flooding the market with MYs.

That might not be the reason for the disparity 23 vs 22 ... but I think it contributed.

7,700 MY were registered in Q1 2002 and 9,900 this year. It’s the M3 where the sales were lost.

 

[Jason71]

7,700 MY were registered in Q1 2002 and 9,900 this year. It’s the M3 where the sales were lost.

Is any of it due to the increase in reasonably priced used M3. This time last year the used prices were silly. Buying used used to make little sense. Now you can get a 3 year old car with under 30K miles for under £30K. This time last year that would have cost you the best part of £45k. New prices have fallen but not by 1/3