EAP for $5100 - are you buying it?

[moa999]

If that's even close to the price, then I'll be waiting until FSD is mainstream and the price comes down. The functionality just is not worth that kind of money for a non-commercial user.

Agreed.

Tesla ultimately has got to solve the value differential between a

200k km long haul semi
150k km a year autonomous taxi
And an individual driving
10-20k km a year.

The taxi one is easy to solve - Tesla can charge big $s for integration to a Tesla Autonomous network and billing system. As well as attended charging and cleaning stations (someone needs to plug you in every now and then)

But I think for many individuals, it's hard to see the value in the current prices.

 

[paulp]

Agreed.

Tesla ultimately has got to solve the value differential between a

200k km long haul semi
150k km a year autonomous taxi
And an individual driving
10-20k km a year.

The taxi one is easy to solve - Tesla can charge big $s for integration to a Tesla Autonomous network and billing system. As well as attended charging and cleaning stations (someone needs to plug you in every now and then)

But I think for many individuals, it's hard to see the value in the current prices.

Very true, but given that the only one of those that is available is the individual driving, tesla may well argue that the price is for that, and the others will cost more. As a city only driver in a city with very few freeways, I can see the value either.

 

[corndog]

I think you'll find it'll keep going up in price as it becomes more useful though, it's already done that more than once and people still pay for it.

It's like any new tech. Exotic and expensive now for first adopters, but eventually every manufacturer will have a decent self-driving tech, which will drive price competition. Eventually it'll get to the point that it becomes a standard feature, possibly even required by law for safety.

 

[GrimRe]

I have been told that its going to be $120 USD monthly for FSD subscription. Expect to be $175 AUD.

That's even more expensive than buying FSD outright.

175 x 12 (months) x 5 (years) = $10,500 out of pocket

vs

$10,100 less $5,000 (residual value of FSD in 5 years time) = $5,100 out of pocket

That is assuming FSD does not go up in price of monthly subscription (which it almost definitely will)... in that case.

250 (average monthly price over 5 years) x 12 (months) x 5 (years) = $15,000 out of pocket

vs

$10,100 less $8,500 (adjusted residual value of FSD in 5 years time) = $1,600 out of pocket

Summary: Buy FSD now. Don't wait. Certainly don't buy the monthly subscription.

 

[blasterkings]

$10,100 less $5,000 (residual value of FSD in 5 years time) = $5,100 out of pocket

How did you predict this residual? Elon "reckons" the value of FSD will be $100k worth soon - not that I agree to his statement.

 

[paulp]

That's even more expensive than buying FSD outright.

175 x 12 (months) x 5 (years) = $10,500 out of pocket

vs

$10,100 less $5,000 (residual value of FSD in 5 years time) = $5,100 out of pocket

That is assuming FSD does not go up in price of monthly subscription (which it almost definitely will)... in that case.

250 (average monthly price over 5 years) x 12 (months) x 5 (years) = $15,000 out of pocket

vs

$10,100 less $8,500 (adjusted residual value of FSD in 5 years time) = $1,600 out of pocket

Summary: Buy FSD now. Don't wait. Certainly don't buy the monthly subscription.

Further to your advice to buy FSD now. Full self driving. You are assuming your current car will still be your current car when FSD is released, and that the hardware will be even compatible (tesla’s hardware history promises are not great). So subscription might in fact be cheaper.

 

[GrimRe]

FSD can never cost $100k without the entire car industry being upside down due to autonomy. If it’s truly worth $100k in the future, it would be crazy for Tesla to even sell cars when they can just realise a per KM profit on all cars.

Further to your advice to buy FSD now. Full self driving. You are assuming your current car will still be your current car when FSD is released, and that the hardware will be even compatible (tesla’s hardware history promises are not great). So subscription might in fact be cheaper.

Even if your scenario it’s still cheaper to buy than to lease FSD (assuming you have hw3). Only way leasing works out is if you plan on keeping your car for less than 3 years.

 

[moa999]

A fully working and government approved FSD is only worth $100k+ momentarily for a specific use case.

And that is rideshare when the car is competing against other cars with costly drivers. But that advantage won't last long.

And if Tesla gets to that point first (and that's no guarantee) I suspect they will seek to capture much of this by charging quite a bit for integration with a rideshare service (or their own).

Without integration and a attended charging network you still need a 'minder' to program the car for each trip and charge it.

 

[GrimRe]

A fully working and government approved FSD is only worth $100k+ momentarily for a specific use case.

And that is rideshare when the car is competing against other cars with costly drivers. But that advantage won't last long.

And if Tesla gets to that point first (and that's no guarantee) I suspect they will seek to capture much of this by charging quite a bit for integration with a rideshare service (or their own).

Without integration and a attended charging network you still need a 'minder' to program the car for each trip and charge it.

either way; that won’t happen with any current Tesla vehicle. I predict:


2021: $12,250
2022: $15,000
2023: $18,000 (HW4)
2024: $21,000
2025: $25,000

If you assume HW3 is capable of everything that a brand new model 3 in 2025 is capable of, you could conservatively assume its residual value is 50% of the brand new price (FSD option only, not car itself)

therefore, buying FSD now could in theory cost you “nothing” as you would be able to sell your car for at least $10,000 more with FSD attached to your car in the second hand market.

EAP on the other hand will never improve in value as what you are paying for is fixed.

 

[paulp]

FSD can never cost $100k without the entire car industry being upside down due to autonomy. If it’s truly worth $100k in the future, it would be crazy for Tesla to even sell cars when they can just realise a per KM profit on all cars.




Even if your scenario it’s still cheaper to buy than to lease FSD (assuming you have hw3). Only way leasing works out is if you plan on keeping your car for less than 3 years.

No you missed my point. The cost of FSD isnt transferrable when you sell the car, so if you buy now and sell your car before FSD works as FSD (and its unlikely to on current hardware), then you have wasted your money, which means it isnt cheaper.

 

[GrimRe]

No you missed my point. The cost of FSD isnt transferrable when you sell the car, so if you buy now and sell your car before FSD works as FSD (and its unlikely to on current hardware), then you have wasted your money, which means it isnt cheaper.

No I haven’t missed your “point”. You missed that I wrote FSD leasing only works out more financially prudent if you are going to keep your car for less than 3 years. In fact I’m pretty sure that’s the only use case Tesla are targeting for FSD leasing (people leasing the car itself)

FSD stays with the VIN of the car. When you sell your car, you can command a premium on top of the second hand market price because of the included FSD option (I.e it has residual value). Depending how far HW3 goes in 3 years, that option may be worth more on the second market then than what it is worth right now brand new. Even in the worst case it almost definitely won’t be worthless if Tesla don’t reach robotaxi level autonomy on HW3. No matter how slice the numbers, leasing is the most expensive option if you want the driver assistance features FSD brings.

 

[paulp]

No I haven’t missed your “point”. You missed that I wrote FSD leasing only works out more financially prudent if you are going to keep your car for less than 3 years. In fact I’m pretty sure that’s the only use case Tesla are targeting for FSD leasing (people leasing the car itself)

FSD stays with the VIN of the car. When you sell your car, you can command a premium on top of the second hand market price because of the included FSD option (I.e it has residual value). Depending how far HW3 goes in 3 years, that option may be worth more on the second market then than what it is worth right now brand new. Even in the worst case it almost definitely won’t be worthless if Tesla don’t reach robotaxi level autonomy on HW3. No matter how slice the numbers, leasing is the most expensive option if you want the driver assistance features FSD brings.

Ok you still havnt read my comment correctly, but thats fine. Good luck with your 2nd hand market dream though.

 

[GrimRe]

Ok you still havnt read my comment correctly, but thats fine. Good luck with your 2nd hand market dream though.

I did read your comments. Unfortunately they are not that easy to follow but I think I get your gist. You are basically saying that those who bought a Model S in 2015 and bought FSD then completely wasted their money as now, that 2015 Model S will never achieve FSD with AP1. That is completely fair and I understand that point (if that’s what it is).

The problem is that we are not in 2015 and not talking about a decade old Model S. I am specifically talking about Model 3/X/S with HW3, that is, all Tesla models currently for sale brand new in Australia.

My assertion is that in 5 years; a) HW3 based FSD will be far superior to current FSD functionality, and b) any future FSD (HW4/5 version) will cost more as an option at check out when buying a brand new Tesla than it does today.

If those two points hold true; you can pick any resale value number you want for a MY2020 FSD enabled Tesla in 2025 and the economics work out better than leasing for the same period of time.

$199 down the drain over 5 years is a crystallised loss of $12,000. FSD outright purchase today and sell at 50% depreciation is only a loss of $5,000 and there is a possibility of that loss being even smaller.

 

[paulp]

I did read your comments. Unfortunately they are not that easy to follow but I think I get your gist. You are basically saying that those who bought a Model S in 2015 and bought FSD then completely wasted their money as now, that 2015 Model S will never achieve FSD with AP1. That is completely fair and I understand that point (if that’s what it is).

The problem is that we are not in 2015 and not talking about a decade old Model S. I am specifically talking about Model 3/X/S with HW3, that is, all Tesla models currently for sale brand new in Australia.

My assertion is that in 5 years; a) HW3 based FSD will be far superior to current FSD functionality, and b) any future FSD (HW4/5 version) will cost more as an option at check out when buying a brand new Tesla than it does today.

If those two points hold true; you can pick any resale value number you want for a MY2020 FSD enabled Tesla in 2025 and the economics work out better than leasing for the same period of time.

$199 down the drain over 5 years is a crystallised loss of $12,000. FSD outright purchase today and sell at 50% depreciation is only a loss of $5,000 and there is a possibility of that loss being even smaller.

If you dont find my comments easy to follow then stop reading them. Hope thats easy to follow.
So you think current HW3 will deliver full self driving. If thats the case, why would tesla need to develop HW4? Its either full self driving or it isnt! Surely?

 

[GrimRe]

If you dont find my comments easy to follow then stop reading them. Hope thats easy to follow.
So you think current HW3 will deliver full self driving. If thats the case, why would tesla need to develop HW4? Its either full self driving or it isnt! Surely?

why are you conflating my argument with the definition of full self driving? My argument doesn’t depend on Tesla achieving the mythical “feature complete” full self driving (whatever that is), all it depends on is that the FSD option has residual value.

HW3 still has enormous potential. For example; all they need to deliver is navigate on autopilot for city streets in the next 5 years and increase the price of FSD by another $1,000 and you are already better having bought FSD today.

I get your point around broken promises surrounding Tesla’s autonomy and there is an argument to be had whether it’s worth the price for an average person. However when it comes to lease vs purchase, my point still stands: if you are keeping the car for more than 3 years and you want FSD functionality (noAP, smart summon etc) you are better of buying than leasing.

 

[paulp]

why are you conflating my argument with the definition of full self driving? My argument doesn’t depend on Tesla achieving the mythical “feature complete” full self driving (whatever that is), all it depends on is that the FSD option has residual value.

HW3 still has enormous potential. For example; all they need to deliver is navigate on autopilot for city streets in the next 5 years and increase the price of FSD by another $1,000 and you are already better having bought FSD today.

I get your point around broken promises surrounding Tesla’s autonomy and there is an argument to be had whether it’s worth the price for an average person. However when it comes to lease vs purchase, my point still stands: if you are keeping the car for more than 3 years and you want FSD functionality (noAP, smart summon etc) you are better of buying than leasing.

I’ll buy full self driving when the cars can do full self driving, which will be several cars into the future, if even in my lifetime.

 

[GrimRe]

I’ll buy full self driving when the cars can do full self driving, which will be several cars into the future, if even in my lifetime.

You are deflecting. I don’t care when/if you buy the FSD option. Nobody does. What I’m saying is: if someone wants the feature-set of the current FSD option brings— leasing it is the most expensive option, followed by paying for EAP (no longer available) followed by the most financially prudent option which is purchasing FSD.

I’ve provided my reasoning including numbers of that being the case and you continue to spout the same rhetoric that FSD is not full autonomy therefore it’s not worth buying. Your uneducated speculation to the value and timelines of FSD software does not change my point. Some people want NoAP and Auto lane change today on a car they will keep for many years and I’m here to tell them in that case you are better buying FSD than leasing it.

 

[paulp]

You are deflecting. I don’t care when/if you buy the FSD option. Nobody does. What I’m saying is: if someone wants the feature-set of the current FSD option brings— leasing it is the most expensive option, followed by paying for EAP (no longer available) followed by the most financially prudent option which is purchasing FSD.

I’ve provided my reasoning including numbers of that being the case and you continue to spout the same rhetoric that FSD is not full autonomy therefore it’s not worth buying. Your uneducated speculation to the value and timelines of FSD software does not change my point. Some people want NoAP and Auto lane change today on a car they will keep for many years and I’m here to tell them in that case you are better buying FSD than leasing it.

I’m actually entitled to have an opinion on the criteria I want to spend my money, what I see as good value, and what I see as poor value, but I do apologise for not meeting your expectations on my educational outcomes.
You’re sliding into insults again. Its not a great conversational approach and will never make you right.

 

[GrimRe]

I’m actually entitled to have an opinion on the criteria I want to spend my money, what I see as good value, and what I see as poor value, but I do apologise for not meeting your expectations on my educational outcomes.
You’re sliding into insults again. Its not a great conversational approach and will never make you right.

I’m not trying to insult you. You simply aren’t comprehending my point.

If somebody wants current FSD features and that person is keeping the car for more than 3 years; it is financially more prudent to buy FSD today than it is to wait and lease it for 3 years. That is not a matter of opinion that is just simple maths.

 

[paulp]

I’m not trying to insult you. You simply aren’t comprehending my point.

If somebody wants current FSD features and that person is keeping the car for more than 3 years; it is financially more prudent to buy FSD today than it is to wait and lease it for 3 years. That is not a matter of opinion that is just simple maths.

You dont even have a factual leasing rate (you have an opinion) and your trying to convince me your maths is right? Let me know how it works out in 3 years time. I’ll still be here.