Early Access Program - gone.

[Knightshade]

I don't see anyone taking my bet yet, no?
Elon will not have full FSD use within 5 years. It's that simple.
Several states have signed off on this concept? You may be correct, but it doesn't mean it will happen. Can you provide sources for that? I like to think I'm pretty educated on this stuff but there's always something new to learn.

I'll provide a couple, and leave you to google the other states with similar laws-

Autonomous Vehicles —

Colorado law allows level 4-5 automated driving with or without a human driver so long as they can meet all applicable state and federal laws.

http://laws.flrules.org/2019/101

Florida law allows autonomous vehicles to operate on public roads with or without a human so long as it can operate in compliance with all applicable traffic and motor vehicle laws of the state.



As to the bet I'm unsure what 'full fsd' is in this context.

The only currently non-delivered FSD features, as they're defined today, are:

• Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs
• Automatic driving on city streets

And with the specific requirement they continue to require human supervision.

I'd absolutely bet that is delivered within 5 years or less.


L5 driving under SAE definitions not so much


Personally I'd be happy to just have L3/L4 on highways only, and I think that's reasonably likely in the next 5 as well

 

[SomeJoe7777]

I just don't understand buying FSD. It makes absolutely no sense to me.

Remember that FSD brings different things to different people. For people who only have AP, it brings NoA, auto lane change, auto park, summon, and smart summon. Some of those things are valuable (auto lane change and maybe summon), although others are clearly not ready for prime time (NoA). In the end, the person's judgment of the net worth of those features determines whether to purchase FSD or not.

On the other hand, those people who have EAP already have these features. For them, FSD is worthless right now. All of those people also only have HW 2.5, so they don't get the traffic cone recognition, which is the only FSD-differentiating feature right now.

Tesla already knows how to NoA on local streets and recognize stop lights and stop signs. Their test cars have been doing that for months. The Smart Summons is a clever way to clean up a lot of edge cases for free on private property without any red tape or regulatory disclosure. This is all coming together soon.

I hope you're right, I really do. It would make a ton of people happy, be huge positive press for Tesla, and would impress a lot of people.

But I'm an old skeptic. They're going to have to prove it to me before the wallet opens.

 

[nepenthe]

I totally understand taking joy in the small things in life. FSD is very small right now, but it has a big sticker price. For what it offers now it should hardly be a line item.

What else is purchased in the world for thousands of dollars on the premise that you may be able to use it someday? It's an absurd concept. But oh, according to Elon not only is FSD not operational now, but you better pony up today because the price is going up!

I'm not sure I understand your vitriol here... Certainly Elon time is a proven fact and much of what he has talked up in terms of timing, has not come to fruition, but has Tesla not continued down the path of FSD? Have features not been added over time, that are exclusive to it? Is there an expectation, that features will not continued to be added? If you're as smart as you proclaim, you understand these facts. That's not to say any disappointment in the reality of this timing, is not warranted - but to pretend is worthless now and into the near future, is ill-informed. Much of these facts are literally baked into their market value as representative of their market cap.

Did you pay, cash in hand, for the entirety of your car? Lets presume you did not, then you're paying over time for something you'll continue to use and derive value from by its use - how is the FSD package any different? Is it such a stretch or your logical faculties to understand how the value of ones car, irrespective to how quickly features of "FSD" are released will be greater than the same car without? Especially so, if that "FSD" package continues to cost more over time. One can easily look out into the field of competitors and those working to create FSD Taxis and even open-source derivatives like comma.ai to see this is not a far out there idea or concept. Additionally, if any owner with the FSD package, wants to hedge their bets on using their vehicle as such a Taxi and the potential cost benefit of that - would that alone not be a reason to buy early, when the price is lower? Especially when you can roll that cost into a deferred monthly payment you were already going to be making?

I of course, say this from the prospective of a recent Tesla owner, if I had done the same a year or two prior, I also would be disappointed in the functional reality of how things have come along in terms of timing. But I absolutely still see the value and happily hedged my bets on the ability of Tesla to deliver additional features on their road to FSD and the Robo Taxi fleet capability that I am entitled to.

 

[toolman335]

This is gambling. You guys are betting that you'll get your money's worth.
I'm not fronting money for something that won't happen until my next car.
Yes, the competitors are trying to do FSD-type stuff. No doubt. But they aren't selling it now.

Maybe it's because my Model 3 is a company car, but I can't justify spending company money on a car feature that doesn't exist(I could have). It's a mind-boggling concept. It's simply not being a good steward of money.

 

[toolman335]

I have a car loan on an existing car with existing options. How is FSD different? Ummmmm….it barely exists lol. Wow.

Why would or should anyone "hedge their bets" on a car? What an asinine thought.

 

[Knightshade]

This is gambling. You guys are betting that you'll get your money's worth.
I'm not fronting money for something that won't happen until my next car.

For post-Feb-2019 buyers they're getting things right now. All the features beyond basic AP (that EAP guys already have right now) in addition to future features.

For pre-Feb-2019 buyers, well, some have already gotten the HW3 upgrade as part of their FSD purchase, though that rollout seems to be going pretty slowly.... but even at a slow rate you'd have that before your next car unless you replace cars every 1-3 years.... (in which case any discussion of wasting $ is probably one you shouldn't be involved in)

 

[nepenthe]

This is gambling. You guys are betting that you'll get your money's worth.
I'm not fronting money for something that won't happen until my next car.
Yes, the competitors are trying to do FSD-type stuff. No doubt. But they aren't selling it now.

Maybe it's because my Model 3 is a company car, but I can't justify spending company money on a car feature that doesn't exist(I could have). It's a mind-boggling concept. It's simply not being a good steward of money.

"I'm not fronting money", "is a company car" ... Is a subscription service a foreign concept to you? Have you ever bought software before? Does Microsoft put out updates for their operating system? Adding features, patching security holes? You're purchasing a software feature, that is as of yet, not fully released/available, but one which has added features over time. The end goal of this software couldn't be more clear.

 

[nepenthe]

I have a car loan on an existing car with existing options. How is FSD different? Ummmmm….it barely exists lol. Wow.

Why would or should anyone "hedge their bets" on a car? What an asinine thought.

One would be buying into software, of which much is as of yet unreleased/unavailable, but is an ever expanding feature of the car. You're right, it's different, but also different in a good way - you're paying less up front, for something that is patently getting better over time (with a clearly defined end feature-set).
I fail to see how the understanding that FSD is an inevitability, and will be cheaper to purchase now (with the value being rolled over into resale value) - is asinine. But I like to logically and dispassionately judge situations.

 

[GreenT]

Musk mentioned on the Q3 2019 investor call just over 2 weeks ago that they still hope to do an early access release of a feature-complete Full Self-Driving by end of this year... so obviously the program still exists, even if they're not running any early-access release testing right now.

Mentioned? I never believe a word he mentions any more.

 

[GreenT]

Tesla is still really a new auto maker trying to change the norm, challenged with staying alive and profitable, with so many organizations, commissions, short sellers, and industries, trying to take him down to preserve an old profitable system.

How long are you going to use the pitiful excuse "new auto maker" to defend them?

They delivered the Roadster when I was a teenager! Kinda.

 

[Knightshade]

How long are you going to use the pitiful excuse "new auto maker" to defend them?

They delivered the Roadster when I was a teenager! Kinda.

While that's true- the Roadster wasn't a mass production vehicle.

Much like Ford was founded in 1903, but it'd be another 5 years before they produced anything but largely manually-assembled small production cars. until the first Model T in 1908- and they wouldn't get the first real mass production assembly line going until 1913- 10 years after they'd made their first car.

Kind of like how Tesla began with small #s of mostly hand-built Roadster, then 4-5 years later came the Model S their first "real" production car... with really large # production finally coming about 10 years after the first car with the Model 3 ramp up.

 

[DopeGhoti]

Elon will not have full FSD use within 5 years. It's that simple.

I absolutely believe that Elon will have FSD on his personal Teslas and may have it already. Whether it'll be released to the public at large is an whole other discussion.

 

[Matt L]

I sent an email to the Early Access Program folks at Tesla and found out that it is no longer in existence.

EAP was supposed to be a bonus for those who purchased their model 3's early. Oh well.....

EAP preexisted the hurt feelings reports and was way overrated. I had it and opted out.

May want to get over this one.

 

[Garlan Garner]

EAP preexisted the hurt feelings reports and was way overrated. I had it and opted out.

May want to get over this one.

I've had to get over a lot of things Tesla.

It all started with reservation holders who plopped their money down on March 15th 2016 for a reservation getting a gift for helping with the initial Model 3 infrastructure. To now the Early Access program making the initial purchasers of FSD a non appreciated action.

I'm glad that the initial buyers of the Model Y will not need empty promises to kick off a financial boost.

 

[toolman335]

I absolutely believe that Elon will have FSD on his personal Teslas and may have it already. Whether it'll be released to the public at large is an whole other discussion.

That is a very good point. I bet he can use it right now. No doubt about it.
For the rest of us? Consider me a skeptic because all it will take is one bad accident and the government shuts the experiment down.

 

[JBT66]

Gone officially or not it still seems FSD folks generally get updates sooner than AP or no AP people.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Gone officially or not it still seems FSD folks generally get updates sooner than AP or no AP people.

Where's my update then?

Can you lobby for me?

 

[Knightshade]

Where's my update then?

Can you lobby for me?

After a bunch Fri/Sat it looks like 36.2 has dropped off- possibly todays entries on teslafi are just folks who got it over the weekend but didn't hit "install" until Monday morning.


Given how often the first version (or sometimes 2) end up having bugs (sometimes bad ones) and are then pulled and replaced with fixed versions, it's baffling to me why anyone apart from youtube stars are in a hurry to get them rather than just wait for the mass rollout of a version that works well.

 

[JBT66]

Where's my update then?

Can you lobby for me?

ha I’m but a lowly AP only person. Definitely no pull with Tesla.

 

[DopeGhoti]

all it will take is one bad accident and the government shuts the experiment down

Maybe Elon needs to start building a firearm into a Tesla; then if there's any accident (or indeed deliberate malfeasance) the government will send thoughts and prayers, speak platitudes, and do nothing.