I think that 2030 is way over-optimistic for a commercial electric jetliner, but I sure hope I'm wrong. First, new battery technology must be developed. Then it has to be extensively tested for safety. Then mass-manufacturing techniques have to be developed. Then the plant has to be built. A fourfold increase in energy density is a very big deal. I think it can happen, but I don't think it can be brought to market in that short a time line. Again, I really hope I'm wrong on the time line, but futurists tend to be wildly optimistic.
As for the present generation of batteries being adequate for surface transportation, I'd say, just barely. The bare-bones Model 3 will be affordable for a middle-class working family, but still out of reach for the majority of working-class folks, and cars like the Leaf are adequate as the short-distance car in a two-car family, but still far from being suitable for the majority of drivers. I still have my Prius because once a year I drive about 330 to 350 miles (if there are no detours and I don't take any wrong turns) to places I go hiking. I go on secondary roads through small towns. No prospects for superchargers any time soon. Using an RV park for a charge-up would add 3 or 4 hours to an otherwise 6-hour drive. With a 500-mile EV I could sell the Prius, but present battery cost and weight means nobody is going to put such a car on the market until there are big advances.
So it's not just airplanes that need better battery tech. Cars need it too for EVs to really go mainstream.
But I am still fascinated to read what you've written about electric planes, because even though I'm less optimistic about the time frame, I would love my next trip to Maui to be on an electric jet. -- And I don't think you mentioned noise. Jets are noisy. I imagine an electric jet would be quieter. Or does the fan make more of the noise than the combustion? When I drove a tractor on the farm, the transmission made more noise than the engine.
As for the present generation of batteries being adequate for surface transportation, I'd say, just barely. The bare-bones Model 3 will be affordable for a middle-class working family, but still out of reach for the majority of working-class folks, and cars like the Leaf are adequate as the short-distance car in a two-car family, but still far from being suitable for the majority of drivers. I still have my Prius because once a year I drive about 330 to 350 miles (if there are no detours and I don't take any wrong turns) to places I go hiking. I go on secondary roads through small towns. No prospects for superchargers any time soon. Using an RV park for a charge-up would add 3 or 4 hours to an otherwise 6-hour drive. With a 500-mile EV I could sell the Prius, but present battery cost and weight means nobody is going to put such a car on the market until there are big advances.
So it's not just airplanes that need better battery tech. Cars need it too for EVs to really go mainstream.
But I am still fascinated to read what you've written about electric planes, because even though I'm less optimistic about the time frame, I would love my next trip to Maui to be on an electric jet. -- And I don't think you mentioned noise. Jets are noisy. I imagine an electric jet would be quieter. Or does the fan make more of the noise than the combustion? When I drove a tractor on the farm, the transmission made more noise than the engine.