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Elon: "Feature complete for full self driving this year"
- Thread starter dckiwi
- Start date
DanCar
Active Member
I have thought that way in the past, but now I just consider it overly optimistic or overly simplistic thinking by Elon. He recognizes the issue here: Elon Musk on Twitter
powertoold
Active Member
Elon understands the challenge well, but his weakness is thinking things will go as planned 
It's funny that after so many failures, he's still so optimistic.
It's funny that after so many failures, he's still so optimistic.
Soda Popinski
Member
I suspect that's true of a lot of entrepreneurs. Realistically, most business fail, and were probably started by someone being overly optimistic. Someone with a realistic outlook wouldn't bother trying to build a new car company that's all electric, or start a new rocket company, much less land and re-use boosters.
FSD is not the result of being overly optimistic.
It's the result of being absurd. Where you expect the customer to do the whole "wink, wink" thing.
Being overly optimistic is like saying the Browns will win the Superbowl in 2021. Being absurd is like saying the Tigers will win the Super Bowl in 2021.
From day one I think FSD was really meant to be a work in progress. Where it was something you do when you know you'll fail, and you do it anyways because of the journey. In some ways it can be argued that for FSD to ever be successful then someone has to fail pretty massively.
The big problem with FSD is not that they did it, but that they didn't communicate what they were doing.
At this point the best thing they can do is make FSD a perpetual license for as long as you own a Tesla. Then immediately switch to a per month thing for new customers. That way it's not tied to hardware, and they are free to upgrade to a sensor suite that can actually get us closer to FSD.
It's the result of being absurd. Where you expect the customer to do the whole "wink, wink" thing.
Being overly optimistic is like saying the Browns will win the Superbowl in 2021. Being absurd is like saying the Tigers will win the Super Bowl in 2021.
From day one I think FSD was really meant to be a work in progress. Where it was something you do when you know you'll fail, and you do it anyways because of the journey. In some ways it can be argued that for FSD to ever be successful then someone has to fail pretty massively.
The big problem with FSD is not that they did it, but that they didn't communicate what they were doing.
At this point the best thing they can do is make FSD a perpetual license for as long as you own a Tesla. Then immediately switch to a per month thing for new customers. That way it's not tied to hardware, and they are free to upgrade to a sensor suite that can actually get us closer to FSD.
Elon understands the challenge well, but his weakness is thinking things will go as planned
It's funny that after so many failures, he's still so optimistic.
Failures? After building a successful on-line bank and selling it, he has single-handedly raised the term "electric car" from "golf cart" to "high-performance luxury car", and built the first private company to send re-supply rockets to the ISS, and is on target to be the first private company to transport crew to and from the ISS. I haven't heard anything about the Boring Company for a while, so maybe that's been a failure? And he has missed just about every deadline he's ever set for himself, but when the products finally come out, they're the best in their class. I am not optimistic that Tesla will be the first with an autonomous car, but EAP is the best driver-assist system on the road today.
I don't characterize Elon's life as a series of failures. I regard it as a series of mind-boggling successes that always materialize late.
Barklikeadog
Active Member
What I'm critical of is the input of employees... Go back to '3 months 6 months'. Nobody in the room working on FSD was telling Elon... 3 months! we'll crack it! Is he asking them '3 months?' Sure boss, 3 months! No, that isn't happening.
It's one thing to be overly optimistic, but to have employees tell you that the timeline is impossible, and then you ignore this and tell customers shareholders a completely different story... cmon that's not optimism. Your own employees say it's not possible. (I'm guessing they're not lying to him every day for years) Either it is a lie or ignorance or denial, I don't know. But it's not optimism. I'm sure there is some influence from those who bought 'FSD' because he can't admit that it's not possible, or a lie, or a mistake, because he's on the verge of being class actioned.
I would be critical of the employees if I felt like they had much power against what Elon says. Time, and time again we've heard reports from what the Engineers wanted versus what Elon did. I have no doubt that the Engineers told him the truth, and he bent it significantly. It didn't help matters that it's hard to retain self-driving engineers in California.
Now maybe the reports were only from a handful of Engineers who were disgruntled, but I doubt it. One example is the Engineers working on the original AP a long time ago wanted a driven attention system similar to what's on the Cadillac supercruise. But, Elon balked at it and insisted the torque sensor was the best option.
Of course now days we know the torque sensor was an absolutely horrible idea. It relied on transitioning to FSD quickly, but that didn't happen. So now we're stuck with absolutely the wrong sensor for L2 driving.
In any case a lot of what happened with AP/FSD was a result of very US based decisions. Things they could get away with in the US, but they can't really elsewhere.
The good news is this whole FSD fiasco will likely end in 2020.
There are too many things coming together for it not to change significantly.
For the sake of argument lets ignore timeline misses, and things clearly under the "just proving it out to get credits" like the whole battery swap thing.
If you simply count things that went well, and went badly I think we all have to agree that New Years 2020 would have really sucked without the accomplishments of SpaceX, and Tesla.
But, at the same time the whole ADAS system of Tesla is a complete mess. You call it the best driver-assist system on the road, but everyone who uses it knows that it has numerous false braking events and even just the adaptive cruise control system by itself doesn't work right. Where it's no where as smooth as AP1 adaptive cruise control was. The AEB system couldn't get the IIHS best mark for pedestrian detection, and completely failed the AAA pedestrian test.
I think it's okay just to call things how they are.
A lot of his successes are in areas where he shines like in the SpaceX environment.
In the Tesla environment it's hard to say. On some stuff he's good, but on the other stuff he's just ridiculous. Like when he thought he could fire all the sales people, and people would magically buy online. That didn't go so well...
At Tesla he really suffers from not having a strong person run the day-to-day stuff.
Barklikeadog
Active Member
I chuckle when someone points out SpaceX
but anyone with a few billion can have a rocket company... bezos milner branson allen....
When I said the Elon's life has been "a series of mind-boggling successes that always materialize late." I should have added "And a few misses."
I am aware of the complaints on this forum about AP and TACC. I use both every day and am aware of their shortcomings, which is why they are not FSD and they require constant attention. There are roads where I never use AP. And there are times I disengage it because I think it will not be able to safely handle the situation. But I still think it's the best driver assist system in any car you can buy today. "Best" does not mean "Ready for FSD." It means no other car company is selling anything as good or better.
And even without FSD/EAP/AP/TACC these cars would be the best cars on the road, as long as you don't need to tow a boat, and the Cybertruck will be able to do that. I call that a series of enormous successes.
The only thing that might be considered a failure is the time line promise on FSD. Of course, there've been a lot of promises about FSD (none of which I've ever believed) but that's still just one feature. If he'd asked me my advice
I'd have recommended not making any of those promises. And if he asked me my opinion now, I'd recommend admitting that FSD is not even close, compensating people who paid for it already, and from here on just selling features that actually exist.But his accomplishments overall have been, I repeat, a series of mind-boggling successes, always late, with a few misses.
None of those are even close to what SpaceX has accomplished, and I believe that Bezos has many more billions than Musk has.
Go back a year, and there are LOTS of people telling him (with laughter at the prospect) that China would be rolling cars off the line in a year. I’m fine with missed deadlines due to ambition. He’s pushing and leading. I say GO FOR IT.
Not meaning you change the topic, but there are places where I do get ticked off. Battery and MCU upgrades, for example. In those situations, there is no good reason for it not to be happening.
Trying you best and falling short is not the same as hobbling some else because you don’t like how they play.
Subaru still uses in in the 2019 I rented in December for their eyesight suite. Just sayin’
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Failures? If anything his over-confidence stems from his stunningly spectacular successes in all his previous endeavors! FSD turned out to be a bigger challenge than he realized. And his autonomous competitors are not finding it any easier. None of them have met their own announced deadlines either!
Some of the brightest people in the world are working on the challenge. They don't see themselves as having failed because they are still hard at work on it. Its just taking longer than expected. Within a few months, I think we will see that one or two of the efforts are starting to stand out above the rest. Just watch.
Barklikeadog
Active Member
The competitors aren't selling FSD, Robotaxis that make money while you sleep and other such pretend stuff to customers for their money and shareholders. That's my concern. It will create an unnecessary liability.
They would sell the same number of Model 3s without that nonsense. it's obviously a great product.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I was responding to the comment by @powertoold that Elon had a lot of failures in his life while his actual history is one of many stupendously grand achievements.
But now that you have implied Tesla is selling "pretend stuff", I will set you straight.
It doesn't take a powerful intellect to differentiate between the selling of a "work in progress" (in which the features you are buying are not yet developed) and "pretend stuff". And Tesla clearly discloses that it's a "work in progress", that currently, it is not autonomous driving because the driver has to remain fully alert at all times. Only an irrational person would conclude they are buying a car that is already autonomous. "Pretend" has nothing to do with it.
Do you think buyers of a 1967 Thunderbird believed it could actually fly just because it was sold as a "Thunderbird"? Probably someone did but it wasn't because it was marketed as being able to fly. It's because they were being irrational to the point of being stupid. You can't fix stupid.
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Subaru has started to switch over starting with 2020 models.
2020 Subaru models will greet you, help you keep your eyes on the road
Outside of Cadillac, BMW, and maybe some others I don't expect driver monitoring on L2 vehicles to get much traction without regulatory pressure.
I pretty much agree with the above, except that I would not call FSD "pretend stuff." I'd call it promising more than they can deliver. Promising robotaxi software for today's cars was an extremely bad decision, and people who took them at their word forked over money that Tesla is now unable to give anything for.
"Feature complete" is just the first baby step towards a validation process that could not possibly mature in under five years, and may take much longer. Effectively, it's an admission that they cannot deliver on Musk's original promise that a car bought a year ago would become robotaxi-capable.
Promising a technology that has not yet been developed is an extremely bad idea. Tesla should have just sold the cars with the technology they actually had, and waited for FSD to exist before selling it.
Barklikeadog
Active Member
I was responding to the comment by @powertoold that Elon had a lot of failures in his life while his actual history is one of many stupendously grand achievements.
But now that you have implied Tesla is selling "pretend stuff", I will set you straight.
It doesn't take a powerful intellect to differentiate between the selling of a "work in progress" (in which the features you are buying are not yet developed) and "pretend stuff". And Tesla clearly discloses that it's a "work in progress", that currently, it is not autonomous driving because the driver has to remain fully alert at all times. Only an irrational person would conclude they are buying a car that is already autonomous. "Pretend" has nothing to do with it.
Do you think buyers of a 1967 Thunderbird believed it could actually fly just because it was sold as a "Thunderbird"? Probably someone did but it wasn't because it was marketed as being able to fly. It's because they were being irrational to the point of being stupid. You can't fix stupid.
Did this sound like a 'work in progress'?
All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware
The Tesla Team October 19, 2016
We are excited to announce that, as of today, all Tesla vehicles produced in our factory – including Model 3 – will have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability
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