Elon: "Feature complete for full self driving this year"

[mongo]

I don't think anyone is saying that lidar is necessary to do cool FSD demos even on unplanned routes. Look at all the EAP accidents that could have been avoided with lidar though. I think that lidar would make achieving FSD much easier and that's the reason everyone else is using it. I would imagine once a company has achieved level 4-5 autonomy then the next step will be to remove lidar since it doesn't work in all weather conditions. The vision system is only one piece of the puzzle and probably not even the most difficult piece.
I just don't see the point of doing yet another FSD demo.

Ok, so I messed but saying lidar specifically instead of referencing the group pool of 'we haven't seen anything from Tesla in years' or 'Tesla can't do it with their sensor suite'.

In so far as demo are demos, it's a demo. In the sense that it will show TEsla's level of progress, I think it is a good thing. If Tesla has FSD, even if it needs further validation, this allows them to show people the progress they have made. Otherwise, it's believe us, we have stuff, it's great, but we won't show you till we roll out to the public... someday...

 

[mongo]

You didn't seem to understand my post. My post was, the EAP description gave the indication of something far more superior than what was delivered this week. In so much that tesla fans mistakenly believed it constitutes as Level 3. But because what was actually delivered is way less than what was expected, no one in the right mind would mistake it or try to pass it off as Level 3.

In addition, the initial hidden release of NOA didn't have the nag confirmation before a lane change (Sept 2018)

You don't seem to understand their point that nowhere in the posts you quoted did anyone mention Level 3...

 

[Bladerskb]

You don't seem to understand their point that nowhere in the posts you quoted did anyone mention Level 3...

Why don't you try reading my post first?

You didn't seem to understand my post. My post was, the EAP description in 2016 gave the indication of something far more superior than what was delivered this week. In so much that tesla fans mistakenly believed it constitutes as Level 3 regardless of the need to pay attention or what the SAE defined. But because what was actually delivered is way less than what was expected, no one in the right mind would mistake it or try to pass it off as Level 3.

Therefore this isn't what people expected so saying that nag confirmation is not driver input is revising history.

In addition, the initial hidden release of NOA didn't have the nag confirmation before a lane change (Sept 2018)

 

[diplomat33]

There's absolutely no way in hell you guys can convince me or anyone that this is what tesla owners expected in 2016 when they read that EAP description. There were huge debates in this forum and on /r/teslamotors whether EAP was level 3 or not. Although they were fundamental wrong they made compelling argument. Which is, at the time when nag was at several minutes, even after the several nag increases (including you @diplomat33). The thesis was, if the guy is merging, lane changing and handing interchange and i only have to touch the wheel every few minutes then how is that not level 3?

Although they were wrong, the argument was very compelling as the basis of a very good system. This iteration of NOA? Not a chance, no one would ever try to pass this off as a kind of Level 3 even in bad faith.

Even the Sept/October 2018 Early access firmware that showed up with unconfirmed lane change hidden and UI enabled by hackers DID NOT have this nag confirmation before a lane change.

Again the whole debate wheather EAP was level 3 revolved around the fact that the car will handle all of highway driving without you confirming anything, only the usual nag requiring you to touch the wheel at random intervals to make sure you are still there. This is what showed up in that October 2018 early access firmware. This however feels like something Elon pushed for the engineers to release so they swapped the stark confirmation with wheel nag confirmation.

Honestly, I think you are kinda grasping at straws now. You are ignoring reviews that say NOA is really good. You are ignoring that the car does lane changes on its own with no stalk confirmation. You are just left with the fact that Tesla added an extra AP nag before lane changes to try to argue that it's not what Tesla promised because they promised "no driver input". Sure, but the AP nags are easy to dismiss. You don't even need to hold the wheel to do it, just pushing the left scroll wheel is good enough. NOA still handles all highway driving with no direct driver input other than dismissing AP nags from time to time.

But I got the update today so I will do an extensive test of the new NOA this weekend and give you a more detailed review if you like.

Funny how you said this wasn't about the stock, now you are talking about how investors can invest/increase their investment based on this demo day. Yet saying this event has nothing to do with improving the stock.

I took issue with you saying it is JUST about "stock pumping". But of course, the stock is one aspect of it. Every publicly traded company has to worry about their stock to some degree. Making a profit is critical for every company. But I disagreed that it was ONLY about "stock pumping" and a "dog and pony show".

 

[Soda Popinski]

You didn't seem to understand my post. My post was, the EAP description in 2016 gave the indication of something far more superior than what was delivered this week. In so much that tesla fans mistakenly believed it constitutes as Level 3 regardless of the need to pay attention or what the SAE defined. But because what was actually delivered is way less than what was expected, no one in the right mind would mistake it or try to pass it off as Level 3.

In addition, the initial hidden release of NOA didn't have the nag confirmation before a lane change (Sept 2018)

You didn't seem to understand my post, which you quoted in its entirety, that I wasn't talking about SAE Level 3. So I'm a bit baffled why you're countering my point about what constitutes "driver input" with a point about SAE Level 3, when I never suggested NoAP is SAE 3.

That's a separate discussion, and may be interesting, but still doesn't prove to me that requiring a hand on the wheel constitutes "driver input."

 

[mongo]

Why don't you try reading my post first?

The one I replied to that was discussing Level 3? Sure, that was what you were discussing, but that was not what they were discussing to the third generation back or so...

Which was whether a nag is equivalent to driver's input. If pressing a button that has nothing to do with driving 7 seconds before a suggested lane change allows the lane change to occur, that does not seem like driver's input regarding the lane change...

 

[Daniel in SD]

Ok, so I messed but saying lidar specifically instead of referencing the group pool of 'we haven't seen anything from Tesla in years' or 'Tesla can't do it with their sensor suite'.

In so far as demo are demos, it's a demo. In the sense that it will show TEsla's level of progress, I think it is a good thing. If Tesla has FSD, even if it needs further validation, this allows them to show people the progress they have made. Otherwise, it's believe us, we have stuff, it's great, but we won't show you till we roll out to the public... someday...

Yeah it just seems like whatever they demo will be on par with what others have achieved nearly a decade ago and yet we still don't have self driving cars. If I were an investor I would want to know how they are going to be able to surpass what others have done. While it's great that Tesla can do FSD demos on cheaper hardware it doesn't really show that they're closer than anyone else to achieving FSD.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

There's absolutely no way in hell you guys can convince me or anyone that this is what tesla owners expected in 2016 when they read that EAP description.

I have no idea what Kool-Aid people were drinking 3 years ago, but you may be right. However, it would be nice to stay mostly in the present here rather than dunking on people for stuff from 3 years ago. I understand the need to look back on prior statements and stuff to see how people have been led astray, but I don't think it's necessary to keep re-litigating so far back.

In addition, the initial hidden release of NOA didn't have the nag confirmation before a lane change (Sept 2018)

I'm not sure what relevance this has. It's a hidden release, not for release, so it may not have to comply with the same level of liability protections that Tesla requires for driver engagement (I have no idea about the details, nor do I care, since it's not a production release). Again, haven't tried the new NoA myself yet, but my understanding is there is no nag based on descriptions. You just keep your hands on the wheel and torque it constantly and gently like a normal Tesla driver. It's level 2.

Everything i have said so far concerning Tesla has been bullseye. Every single thing

I guess we will see (well, I will, but you presumably won't), but you seem to be wrong about the nag confirmation. You simply have to maintain constant torque on the wheel, which you have to do anyway at all times since it's level 2.

This however feels like something Elon pushed for the engineers to release so they swapped the stalk confirmation with wheel nag confirmation.

I have no idea what you're talking about. It's a big difference to go from having to confirm a change, to having to do nothing (beyond what is normal) to make a lane change. It's an actual real difference (whether it will result in dangerous lane changes, we will see - my guess is probably). Reiterating, you seem wrong about this, since there is apparently no wheel nag confirmation with Seamless NoA according to the press release and all user accounts so far. The system simply needs to know that you're torquing the wheel like normal; this is not a new requirement and there is no additional action required (I 100% could be be misled by something here, since no personal experience yet). Again, this is as I understand it based on users' descriptions and Tesla's description.

Can anyone here with a Tesla who has the new software confirm that it will simply change lanes automatically (if so configured), as long as you're torquing the wheel constantly, like normal? That's my understanding.

Again, not sure why you're augering in on this issue in particular. There are so many real reasons to be skeptical but this seems completely off-base.

 

[diplomat33]

While it's great that Tesla can do FSD demos on cheaper hardware it doesn't really show that they're closer than anyone else to achieving FSD.

Don't be too quick to dismiss that. Making FSD economical so that you can afford to put it in millions of cars is absolutely critical if you want FSD to really change transportation. If Tesla can achieve meaningful FSD on cheaper hardware, it will give them an advantage since they will be able to make more FSD cars at a lower cost. That's the issue with some of these companies doing FSD with hugely expensive hardware suites. Sure, they might get to L4 autonomy first but if they can only afford to build a handful of autonomous taxis, it won't really change transportation.

 

[mongo]

Yeah it just seems like whatever they demo will be on par with what others have achieved nearly a decade ago and yet we still don't have self driving cars. If I were an investor I would want to know how they are going to be able to surpass what others have done. While it's great that Tesla can do FSD demos on cheaper hardware it doesn't really show that they're closer than anyone else to achieving FSD.

Let me ask this then, what would you need to see FSD do to show that FSD can do FSD? Or, where did previous demos fall short?

I think one advantage Tesla has is that their cars are already out there, so if they can show software that does FSD, it is a short step to have that in customer's hands..

 

[azred]

What a thread! I have concluded that I am a L4 trying to debate a bunch of L2s

 

[Daniel in SD]

Don't be too quick to dismiss that. Making FSD economical so that you can afford to put it on millions of cars is absolutely critical if you want FSD to be really change transportation. If Tesla can achieve meaningful FSD on cheaper hardware, it will give them an advantage since they will be able to make more FSD cars at a lower cost. That's the issue with some of these companies doing FSD with hugely expensive hardware suites. Sure, they might get to L4 autonomy first but if they can only afford to build a handful of autonomous taxis, it won't really change transportation.

That's like people in 2006 telling Tesla that there's no point to developing the roadster because it only has two seats and costs more than $100k. Why didn't they just build the $35k Model 3 first?

 

[ZeApelido]

But you weren't telling the car which way to go before this update.
Before it was: you have to engage the small stalk.
Now its: you have to exert pressure, plus we all know how bad the steering wheel detection system is, which will lead to you having to jigger it.

That's definitely still 'driver input'.

JFC pathetic dude. Everyone knows the implication of "without driver input" was the removal of need to trigger the lane change vs without input, NOT the L2 standard nag.

You really need to stick with your logical criticisms. Your obvious animosity against Musk is really impairing your credibility.

 

[ZeApelido]

What I don't get is how Tesla could possibly show anything that hasn't been done by a dozen other companies who have done FSD "demos". Achieving FSD isn't about going 10 or 100 or 1000 miles between disengagements, it's about making a system that is safer than human drivers. Obviously that progression is necessary but other companies are going thousands of miles between disengagements and they're still not sure if and when their systems can be deployed.

Well regardless of legitimacy, they are showing it on a production car.

A car that someone can buy.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Let me ask this then, what would you need to see FSD do to show that FSD can do FSD? Or, where did previous demos fall short?

I think one advantage Tesla has is that their cars are already out there, so if they can show software that does FSD, it is a short step to have that in customer's hands..

I'm not sure what the industry consensus is but I would think a few hundred thousand miles between accidents would be good (humans are at about 150k). I don't think that anyone will deploy a system until it's safer than humans.

 

[diplomat33]

That's like people in 2006 telling Tesla that there's no point to developing the roadster because it only has two seats and costs more than $100k. Why didn't they just build the $35k Model 3 first?

There is basically two ways to achieve economical FSD. You can achieve FSD first and then bring down the cost or you can start with a "cheap" system and then try to make it FSD. Waymo is taking the first approach, Tesla is taking the second approach.

 

[Soda Popinski]

Can anyone here with a Tesla who has the new software confirm that it will simply change lanes automatically (if so configured), as long as you're torquing the wheel constantly, like normal? That's my understanding.

I can confirm you need not do anything other than keep a hand on the wheel with enough torque to let the car know you're holding the wheel.

That said, I believe (at least during an auto lane change), the threshold for hand detection has been reduced. I typically keep one hand on the wheel offset to the side to provide enough natural weight to torque the steering wheel. Since this is new, I've got both hands on the wheel, symmetrically, which not surprisingly, cancels out the torque. During an auto-lane change, the blue flashing started, which now is a new alert that an auto lane change is happening, so I didn't notice the nag. Within 12 seconds, it jumped straight to Autopilot Jail (first time for me).

 

[Daniel in SD]

Well regardless of legitimacy, they are showing it on a production car.

A car that someone can buy.

I can't argue with that.

There is basically two ways to achieve economical FSD. You can achieve FSD first and then bring down the cost or you can start with a "cheap" system and then try to make it FSD. Waymo is taking the first approach, Tesla is taking the second approach.

Well I think it's a better idea to develop FSD and then worry about getting the cost down. I can't think of a technology where that hasn't been a good approach.

 

[mongo]

Well I think it's a better idea to develop FSD and then worry about getting the cost down. I can't think of a technology where that hasn't been a good approach.

Here's the problem I see though. Once you make a system that works, how do your convince people that your lower cost/ simpler system is just as good? Unless you embargo the original, you'll never get as many miles on the in-development gen 2 as you have on the in-the-wild x thousands of cars sold a year production system. I can see it working if you are only doing a sensor cost down, since that is independently testable, but removing a sensor altogether seems nigh impossible...

 

[Daniel in SD]

Here's the problem I see though. Once you make a system that works, how do your convince people that your lower cost/ simpler system is just as good? Unless you embargo the original, you'll never get as many miles on the in-development gen 2 as you have on the in-the-wild x thousands of cars sold a year production system. I can see it working if you are only doing a sensor cost down, since that is independently testable, but removing a sensor altogether seems nigh impossible...

I don't think it would be that hard to remove sensors. I think you're underestimating how difficult the rest of the software is even if you've got a system with perfect "vision". Anyway it doesn't take that many miles to verify safety. Like I said humans get into accidents every 150k miles. A few million miles seems like it should be enough. If Tesla could train one thousand of their employees to be test drivers they could cover a million miles in a month. It just doesn't seem like a major hurdle given the ridiculous amount money one could make selling FSD vehicles.