Elon: FSD Beta tweets

[aronth5]

Of course a disengagement-free cross-country drive is a bit silly but there will be far fewer disengagements than many think for the reasons I've stated above. And as Nvx1977 states "The vast majority of it will be on restricted-access highways". Exactly. Once you're on the highway and leave urban traffic behind you'll cruise along hour after hour and pile up hundreds of disengagement free miles.

@Alansubieforlife, there are lots of zero disengagement drives and this one didn't even have any interventions on a busy highway.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I think there will be plenty of takeovers on a trip of that length not including parking lots.

Right. Takeovers are disengagements of course.

I saw plenty of interventions in his video in any case. Watched a couple minutes. Saw three or four.

Right. Those are interventions.

You might think of them as same / similar - but they are different for Tesla and us. When I say I had zero disengagement drive I don't mean zero interventions (though I have very few, except for changing speed as noted).

Yes I addressed this earlier with the types of adjustments needed. The reader can obviously categorize which is intervention and which is disengagement (since it is pretty obvious).

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

there are lots of zero disengagement drives and this one didn't even have any interventions on a busy highway.

This was six minutes. Not sure how this is relevant. I believe there can be six minutes free of interventions!

 

[EVNow]

Right. Takeovers are disengagements of course.

Right. Those are interventions.

So, why mix them up ?

You first state this.

I think there will be plenty of takeovers on a trip of that length not including parking lots.​

​

But give this as proof.

I saw plenty of interventions in his video in any case. Watched a couple minutes. Saw three or four.​

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

So, why mix them up ?

You first state this.

I think there will be plenty of takeovers on a trip of that length not including parking lots.​

​

But give this as proof.

I saw plenty of interventions in his video in any case. Watched a couple minutes. Saw three or four.​

These things are…not mixed up.

It’s possible to cover both things in the same post without having to pedantically explain every time something that is obvious to the reader.

My first post on this. Is there really lack of clarity here? “Some of which should count [as disengagements].”

Elon: FSD Beta tweets

Technically, Elon's tweet prior to this one said two weeks on January 7. And this Tweet sounds like he's saying 1-2 additional weeks. So if it comes out within the next week, that's within two weeks of January 7. No Elon said "in about two weeks". So I'll give him some leeway, maybe another...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[aronth5]

This was six minutes. Not sure how this is relevant. I believe there can be six minutes free of interventions!

It's very relevant since it mimics a cross country drive. Very short drives to and from the controlled access highway. Now assume the driver doesn't exit the highway but keeps going until he has to supercharge. Rinse and repeat over and over. I could easily see many of these iterations being almost disengagement/takeover free especially outside of urban areas. Think rural states, Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, and Iowa. That is over 50% of the way to NY City. Of course it will be a gimic drive but anyone who tries it (i.e. Omar) is going to maximize their chances.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Of course it will be a gimic drive but anyone who tries it (i.e. Omar) is going to maximize their chances.

Yeah. Just think very unlikely to have zero this year.

We need to look at the tremendous progress in 2022 and extrapolate that continued improvement in 2023.

And then it becomes clear what is likely.

It's very relevant since it mimics a cross country drive. Very short drives to and from the controlled access highway.

Not sure how representative is a single drive, likely with extreme selection bias.

And I would view driving outside lane lines, etc. as a failure. Anything that is a traffic violation or would result in a demerit on a driving test counts as a disengagement.

I’ve driven FSD on highways (NOA of course) for long distances in the last few months and I know the drill when it comes to attempting to navigate from Supercharger to highway.

For example try Mesquite supercharger to northbound I-15. Obviously this is not one they would do. But still, was not possible for FSD in October. (I am sure you can imagine what it did.)

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

maps.app.goo.gl

 

[EVNow]

And I would view driving outside lane lines, etc. as a failure.

Human drivers are all failures !!

Infact, the best way to figure out whether a Tesla on the freeway is on AP or not is to see how well within the lines it is driving. Better at lane keeping => AP/NOA.

BTW, had an interesting thing happen yesterday. A tesla was being very hesitant and selecting wrong lanes behind me. I thought finally I found a Tesla using FSDb. The car finally came and stopped next to me at the traffic light. I looked at the display - clearly not on FSD. Just a confused driver. It was a construction zone just after freeway exit - and I had disengaged

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Human drivers are all failures !!

Sure (many are anyway). But one key difference is the car intends to drive outside the lines while the human failures you refer to typically do not.

Anyway I am not sure how human failures are relevant here.


Anyhow…
As I said the design intent is neither zero interventions nor zero disengagements so we should not expect that.

When the design intent changes then I would expect success when design is complete.

 

[Silicon Desert]

Frankly, if they tried to plays games with it at this point they should be fired or any credibility should be zeroed out. this promise of “drive from CA to NYC” is already SEVERAL years beyond promised capability, the planned “by end of this year” drive without driver intervention has come and gone for at least two if not three years now.

yes, except for that word "promised". I never saw that.

 

[Madmolecule]

Every input is an error

In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 10, 2016

 

[aronth5]

Yeah. Just think very unlikely to have zero this year.

Not a single poster here, my self included believes a zero disengagement drive will happen cross country this year so you're stating the obvious.
My singular point is there will be fewer disengagements/takeovers on a cross country drive then many people anticipate. Could someone drive a whole day without a disengagement with a short city/street drive to get on the highway followed by a full day of driving a rural restricted highway- yes.

 

[tivoboy]

Every input is an error

In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 10, 2016

The internet sure is a b…h

 

[Madmolecule]

Better Than a Person right now
better than human in 2016
Back into a space
snake charger, soon
more cameras
more radars
redundancy
nationwide standards for autonomous car would be good (how is that progressing)
Elon highly confident
summon from key fob
it will take worse case 100M miles for data collection
wrecks were caused by people not realizing that auto pilot was not on
no wrecks caused by auto pilot
all liability remains with the driver
quite rare that there will be any issues

 

[EVNow]

Not a single poster here, my self included believes a zero disengagement drive will happen cross country this year so you're stating the obvious.
My singular point is there will be fewer disengagements/takeovers on a cross country drive then many people anticipate. Could someone drive a whole day without a disengagement with a short city/street drive to get on the highway followed by a full day of driving a rural restricted highway- yes.

Not just that, a 2+ hour drive around SF Bay area ...

 

[Daniel in SD]

Not just that, a 2+ hour drive around SF Bay area ...

Watched for 3 minutes. How does he not end up with someone road raging behind him?

I guess he's taking advantage of the hills, if there was someone behind him they might not be able to see that he skipped his turn to go.

 

[EVNow]

Watched for 3 minutes. How does he not end up with someone road raging behind him?

Just post a few NRA stickers all around the car

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

My singular point is there will be fewer disengagements/takeovers on a cross country drive then many people anticipate

I expect as low as single-digit disengagements and 10 to 100ish interventions. Some of the interventions will be effectively disengagements (for example pushing the accelerator to make the car proceed, or speed adjustments for safety and courtesy), and will be counted as such.

That’s about where things are at and I don’t expect leaps and bounds better this year. I do expect a significant amount of improvement though, just like this past year (2022).

We’ll hopefully get a Tweet from Elon at some point soon laying out his expectations for this year. Then we will know what to expect.

 

[OxBrew]

Intervention = disengagement when comparing to a driverless cross country summon, or as near as makes no difference at least from out here in the cheap seats.

Any drive with either is just boring, so what, call me when it's actually zero.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Intervention = disengagement when comparing to a driverless cross country summon, or as near as makes no difference at least from out here in the cheap seats.

Any drive with either is just boring, so what, call me when it's actually zero.

It depends on the intervention. An intervention to pass a slow semi right away rather than waiting for FSD to figure it out, or to get around someone traveling super slowly in the fast lane is not necessarily the same as a disengagement, especially when thinking about it as cross-country summon.

Many intervention types could be disqualifying (may as well be disengagement), as listed in examples above.

Plenty of optional ones, plenty of mandatory ones. They have to be dealt with case by case since there are so many possibilities, but some are categorically one or the other of course.