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Technically, Elon's tweet prior to this one said two weeks on January 7. And this Tweet sounds like he's saying 1-2 additional weeks. So if it comes out within the next week, that's within two weeks of January 7.
No Elon said "in about two weeks". So I'll give him some leeway, maybe another week. We know Elon's estimates are almost always incorrect but at least quote him correctly.
Elon: FSD Beta tweets
 
Off topic:
Omar says he will go cross country with zero take overs before the end of the year. :D
Zero chance. He will take over when it is time to charge.

assuming you don't count charging, he might have a chance if his start and stop points are already on an interstate. If he takes any local roads in the northeast, he's in for a rude awakening.
 
assuming you don't count charging, he might have a chance if his start and stop points are already on an interstate. If he takes any local roads in the northeast, he's in for a rude awakening.
"California to New York" could mean state line to state line on the interstate, just activate right before crossing and deactivate right after crossing
 
"California to New York" could mean state line to state line on the interstate, just activate right before crossing and deactivate right after crossing

Less than 200 miles and those roads shouldn't be too busy.
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"California to New York" could mean state line to state line on the interstate, just activate right before crossing and deactivate right after crossing
Frankly, if they tried to plays games with it at this point they should be fired or any credibility should be zeroed out. this promise of “drive from CA to NYC” is already SEVERAL years beyond promised capability, the planned “by end of this year” drive without driver intervention has come and gone for at least two if not three years now.
 
I meant Elon of course, and by proxy Tesla… this is the ELON FSD BETA TWEETS thread right?
I wonder how people will react if Omar ends up with say 5-10 disengagements excluding when parking to charge and/or parking at hotels? Will people allow for those disengagements or not? It would be interesting because some will call the trip a total failure and others will be impressed if he can do the trip with less than 10. I'm sure he will do 99% highways with very few stops. And if he has another driver(s) to rotate so they continue at night having zero disengagements or close to zero won't be that hard. With V11 and many point releases it's probably doable since city streets don't have to be a factor and with 2-3 drivers you won't even need hotel stops just stops to charge. He can also select a highway route that avoids the more difficult urban areas. Driving for hours on a highway without a disengagement isn't hard even now.
It will be fun to watch.
 
I wonder how people will react if Omar ends up with say 5-10 disengagements excluding when parking to charge and/or parking at hotels? Will people allow for those disengagements or not? It would be interesting because some will call the trip a total failure and others will be impressed if he can do the trip with less than 10. I'm sure he will do 99% highways with very few stops. And if he has another driver(s) to rotate so they continue at night having zero disengagements or close to zero won't be that hard. With V11 and many point releases it's probably doable since city streets don't have to be a factor and with 2-3 drivers you won't even need hotel stops just stops to charge. He can also select a highway route that avoids the more difficult urban areas. Driving for hours on a highway without a disengagement isn't hard even now.
It will be fun to watch.
Should we setup a pool? If we’re taking the over under, I’m taking the OVER.
 
It would be smarter if he would set the goal at a very small number of disengagements. The pressure to maintain zero takeovers, especially towards the end of the drive, could lead to reckless behavior in a sticky situation. This is a well-known principle: don't set up metrics that drive dangerous behavior.

For example, delivery drivers who are incentivized to complete higher than the expected number of deliveries, or get the pizza by a guaranteed time or it's free. These things have brewed trouble before, so I hope Omar doesn't let this happen.

If it goes wrong, it would lead to a Monday morning NHTSA investigation just because Elon didn't step in and discourage this (post-facto "obviously risky") target. Much better if Elon issues a tweet saying "Good luck but make sure you follow the guidelines we require for safe operation".
 
I wonder how people will react if Omar ends up with say 5-10 disengagements excluding when parking to charge and/or parking at hotels? Will people allow for those disengagements or not? It would be interesting because some will call the trip a total failure and others will be impressed if he can do the trip with less than 10. I'm sure he will do 99% highways with very few stops. And if he has another driver(s) to rotate so they continue at night having zero disengagements or close to zero won't be that hard. With V11 and many point releases it's probably doable since city streets don't have to be a factor and with 2-3 drivers you won't even need hotel stops just stops to charge. He can also select a highway route that avoids the more difficult urban areas. Driving for hours on a highway without a disengagement isn't hard even now.
It will be fun to watch.

There is zero chance of that few disengagements without compromising safety this year. Not sure why V11 would change anything on the freeway in those instances.

And of course there will be tons of interventions, some of which should count.

This is just Omar trying to get engagement from Elon. Sad to see. 😢
 
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There is zero chance of that few disengagements without compromising safety this year. Not sure why V11 would change anything on the freeway in those instances.

And of course there will be tons of interventions, some of which should count.
I suspect that V11.3 (if that is what we get and probably 11.3.3) to at least 11.5 will produce MORE disengagements over legacy AP. No way V11 is "out the box" OVERALL better than legacy AP. I bet it is going to take a lot of tweaking to "calm it down" so it's not overreacting at highway speeds. So we are all likely to be delighted to get it and then there will be countless treads about V11 "regressions" (not technically but just different) for a few months.

Analogy: It will probably be similar to the AP1 to AP2 switchover. Just hopefully won't take as long for V11 to supersede legacy AP.