Elon Musk vs. Short sellers

[jesselivenomore]

Can you (jesse) or a mod please copy and paste all of jesse’s 4 posts into the first post on this thread so they can be read one after another altogether? It will be way easier to reference in the future and for new readers to be able to read all of them without having to wade through all the other posts.

That was my original intent with the placeholders but seems I can't edit the OP anymore.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

That was my original intent with the placeholders but seems I can't edit the OP anymore.

A mod will merge your posts if you ask.

Edit - i just noticed this reply was redundant.

 

[Afraniy]

I have signed up to the forum just to write this. I think that there is more to the story behind the unusually high amount of capital betting against Tesla and all the negative publicity. A group of emotionally invested immoral short-sellers is not enough to explain this. There is genuine desire of large amount of people for Tesla to fail.
Elon is disrupting several major well established industries at once: oil, transportation, internet, grid etc. The wave of change that Elon has created and pushes forward will bankrupt hundreds of thousands and will leave millions without job within next decade. I imagine the feelings of 30 years old truck driver reading about self driving semi; or auto-mechanic learning about Teslas that don't break; or a coal plant operator; or the installer of cellular antennas and so on. I imagine they would want to hear that Elon is a fraud and Tesla will bankrupt soon and their future is safe.
What Elon is trying to achieve makes whole industries obsolete. They will not go away without fight. When legal methods will fail, some of them will try illegal ones. Tesla might win this round against short sellers, but there will be other players, using other methods to try and bring Tesla down.

 

[TradingInvest]

Can you (jesse) or a mod please copy and paste all of jesse’s 4 posts into the first post on this thread so they can be read one after another altogether? It will be way easier to reference in the future and for new readers to be able to read all of them without having to wade through all the other posts.

I plan to send a link to this thread to many friends/family but want to make it easy for them to read all of it.

And I would definitely be in favour of electrek/@FredLambert running the entire series of posts as an article on his website.

Yes Jesse, it would be great if you add all the pieces together, edit if necessary, and re-post as one piece so more people can read it easily in the future. It's not Elon fighting against the shorts, it's shorts doing everything to destroy Tesla. More people need to understand this.

 

[TradingInvest]

I have signed up to the forum just to write this. I think that there is more to the story behind the unusually high amount of capital betting against Tesla and all the negative publicity. A group of emotionally invested immoral short-sellers is not enough to explain this. There is genuine desire of large amount of people for Tesla to fail.
Elon is disrupting several major well established industries at once: oil, transportation, internet, grid etc. The wave of change that Elon has created and pushes forward will bankrupt hundreds of thousands and will leave millions without job within next decade. I imagine the feelings of 30 years old truck driver reading about self driving semi; or auto-mechanic learning about Teslas that don't break; or a coal plant operator; or the installer of cellular antennas and so on. I imagine they would want to hear that Elon is a fraud and Tesla will bankrupt soon and their future is safe.
What Elon is trying to achieve makes whole industries obsolete. They will not go away without fight. When legal methods will fail, some of them will try illegal ones. Tesla might win this round against short sellers, but there will be other players, using other methods to try and bring Tesla down.

This sounds reasonable, and I can't rule out other groups sponsoring the attacks (especially car companies and oil companies). However what I observed is that they are against Tesla, not EV or autonomous driving. Google has been developing and testing autonomous driving for 9 years. I have never seen one attack article against it. When I-Pace EV came out, I did not see one attack article or post. I have never seen one attack article on any of the other EVs. They all hope other EVs will destroy Tesla.

Watch the negative response when Tesla or Elon does anything. Based on the way how they attack Tesla and the timing, I feel the majority of the attack comes from shorts. How they organize it I don't know.

 

[Afraniy]

This sounds reasonable, and I can't rule out other groups sponsoring the attacks (especially car companies and oil companies). However what I observed is that they are against Tesla, not EV or autonomous driving. Google has been developing and testing autonomous driving for 9 years. I have never seen one attack article against it. When I-Pace EV came out, I did not see one attack article or post. I have never seen one attack article on any of the other EVs. They all hope other EVs will destroy Tesla.

Watch the negative response when Tesla or Elon does anything. Based on the way how they attack Tesla and the timing, I feel the majority of the attack comes from shorts. How they organize it I don't know.

I am speculating, but maybe until Elon Musk the EV attempts were never perceived as a threat by oil connected companies. Perhaps they tried to bring down Tesla to make this whole EV thing go away. They failed, obviously. Tesla proved their point, the industry is changing. But all the momentum targeted specifically on Tesla, cannot just dissipate overnight.
Again i am only thinking out loud. I have no proof to support this.

 

[sweter]

This sounds reasonable, and I can't rule out other groups sponsoring the attacks (especially car companies and oil companies). However what I observed is that they are against Tesla, not EV or autonomous driving. Google has been developing and testing autonomous driving for 9 years. I have never seen one attack article against it. When I-Pace EV came out, I did not see one attack article or post. I have never seen one attack article on any of the other EVs. They all hope other EVs will destroy Tesla.

Watch the negative response when Tesla or Elon does anything. Based on the way how they attack Tesla and the timing, I feel the majority of the attack comes from shorts. How they organize it I don't know.

They might realize that any EV attempts from those companies are laughable and not a danger to the industry at all. Not the products themselves, but planned production volume of them. Nissan might be the only other OEM that is serious about EV, but it's relatively untouchable for the West or Tesla is just simply a much easier target.

 

[mutle]

This sounds reasonable, and I can't rule out other groups sponsoring the attacks (especially car companies and oil companies). However what I observed is that they are against Tesla, not EV or autonomous driving. Google has been developing and testing autonomous driving for 9 years. I have never seen one attack article against it. When I-Pace EV came out, I did not see one attack article or post. I have never seen one attack article on any of the other EVs. They all hope other EVs will destroy Tesla.

I agree on the Google AV front, but over the last year there has been a slew of articles in the German media which basically conclude that EVs are not better for the environment (it's usually portrayed as pretty much the same or slightly worse so that people will happily keep buying ICE/Diesel cars).

This is a recent article which was the cover story of the May issue of "Spektrum der Wissenschaft" (magazine founded by "Scientific American" according to Spektrum der Wissenschaft – Wikipedia) which is well respected:

Umwelt: Die Ökobilanz der E-Mobilität

I have some other examples from big publications like this:

Der große Schwindel mit den Elektroautos
Elektromobilität: "Elektroautos sind keine Heilsbringer"
Emissionsfreie Mobilität: Sind Elektroautos wirklich umweltfreundlich?
Elektroautos: Wie sicher und sauber sind sie wirklich? | Plusminus

(More can be easily found by googling for "Elektroauto <publication name>", usually the negative articles are among the top results)

I believe this can be partially explained by are other interests against EVs in Germany than in America. We don't have any public climate change deniers that are taken serious or big Oil producers, so Solar and Wind power is mostly seen in a positive light. But by far the biggest industry is the car industry, and they can't afford to lose many customers while they ready their EU-mandated EVs over the next decade. The EU regulations are pretty much set and can't be overturned. Cheating to make it look like the existing lineup better or trying to delay implementation are their only options (aside from, you know, just making awesome EVs that people want to buy). If the general public thinks that EVs are actually worse (or pretty much the same) for the environment but more expensive then it becomes a no-brainer to stay with what they have had for all that time.

Another factor is that I know of a lot of cases of people actually deciding to use Diesel in the last decade or so because it seemed better for the environment (lower CO2 emissions per km driven compared to Benzin/gas (OT: still seems strange to me to call a liquid "gas")), even though the cars were more expensive to buy and the fuel is only slightly cheaper. Of course this ignored all the other crap that Diesel emissions include, but the media, car companies and everyone mostly focussed on CO2.

 

[22522]

Profit and Beyond...

1) ... I believe a CEO should focus on running their company instead of worrying about stock price or short sellers.

2) ... The thing is though, I think when Elon Musk looks around, he realizes the greatest threat to his company is not the Mission E or Model 3 take rate or whatever.(both will be positive for Tesla) It is the massive amount of capital betting against him steered by bad actors with malicious intent and an incriminating history.


3) ... However, I do fear that with the stakes so high, once they lose control of share price, they may instead move on the the next logical targets. Attacking demand - they already do this with the fires and autopilot incidents.

4)... Of course, Tesla could also try to grow organically by only expanding with the cash it generates, but then that would go against their mission statement: to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.

*fin

Dear Jesse,

Thank you for the insights published, like your namesake.

On the items marked 1 through 4, I think Elon is ahead of us (all).

Let's look 2, 3 and 4 through my lens.

I was not a line waiter as that would be Aesop's fables "dog in the manger" behavior. I didn't have enough money to close the deal and honor the commitment. I was not real demand.

I reserved that May to help with supplier leverage to improve component pricing terms, still with no idea on how to pay for the car - but a commitment to do it. A year later I decided to finance my Model 3 purchase commitment by putting all of my direct-able retirement account funds into Tesla stock...

In my case, TSLA stock price is directly linked to demand, or Model 3 take rate.

Because the mental pattern of scrounging for a Model 3 occurred over a long period of time, FUD just bounces off. The demand neurons are hard wired.

The stock appreciation money from this short squeeze, or other stock appreciation mechanims,

will accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.


So back to item 1: Attention to Tesla stock price is, in this case, a CEO focused on running their company.

Any short money lost to me, turns into demand for Tesla product. It accelerates the world's transition to sustainable energy.

 

[Boomer19]

Yes, as far as I know Chanos had exactly one good call, which just happened to be Enron.

exactly, and rudy brought down organized crime in nyc, but now look at him. he’s possibly deranged. point being, that was a long time ago...and recent actions speak louder than past performance in their cases. or maybe it was more the team surrounding them at the time they were considered great

 

[Mader Levap]

Amusing how "Reality" is in fact denying his screen name at every occasion.

Actually, it is not amusing. It is same logic as with "Pravda" (meaning "Truth"). This Musk's reference was not, of course, accidental. "Pravda" was major Soviet state newspaper (I was surprised that so many people didn't get it, that made me feel old). And it's content was as far from title as possible, being state newspaper of totalitarian regime and all of that.

help to contain general AI. Elon predicted general AI will be developed in about 7 years. ... Once general AI is developed, it will soon reach a decent level and naturally will start to self evolve (AI develop AI), we will have a new type of "animal" with IQ of 50,000 and continue to double every month... I can't think of a path how this will not happen.

Very simple. Stop assuming without any justification whatsoever that you can self-improve boundlessly. It is impossible. No fast takeoff, no raptu-, er, Singularity, no sudden super-AI with x (insert meaningless number) IQ.

 

[Reality]

(Quote) "I am going to ignore the false pretense that Musk is truly out to save the planet." (endquote)

I completely and 100% agree with neroden. Everything Musk has done so far is clearly to 'save the planet'.
Although it might be too late, I was going to ask @Reality to be honest and tell us who is paying him for his posts here. To me it is so blatantly obvious that he is on this forum to spread FUD; ever shifting his arguments and reasoning.

No one is paying me, as of now this has been a losing endeavor for me (stock price!)

Let's just agree to disagree that Musk has an altruistic motive behind his actions

 

[CarlK]

Very simple. Stop assuming without any justification whatsoever that you can self-improve boundlessly. It is impossible. No fast takeoff, no raptu-, er, Singularity, no sudden super-AI with x (insert meaningless number) IQ.

You probable should study more of how human brain and neural networks works. NN kind of emulates how our brains work but with AI you can build ever bigger brain/processor which can learn at a much faster speed than our brain can. Elon said AI can go from sub-human to super human in very short time before we even notice it. That point is likely not too far away now and it has surpassed human is certain specific areas already (Google's Alpha Go for example) Think about it our brain power is just an arbitrary point and not something special or a natural limit. That we are the most intelligent being on the planet probably gave some people the wrong impression that is can not be surpassed.

 

[JRP3]

No one is paying me, as of now this has been a losing endeavor for me (stock price!)

Let's just agree to disagree that Musk has an altruistic motive behind his actions

If you're a multimillionaire and are motivated to make even more money you don't start a car company, or a rocket company. Your position is indefensible.

 

[ggr]

venerable

Vulnerable?

 

[JRP3]

I collected all the links to Jessie's posts here to make it more convenient to read as a whole and share with others.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/2814570/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/2814894/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/2815380/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/2815696/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/2815875/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/2816679/

 

[commasign]

That was my original intent with the placeholders but seems I can't edit the OP anymore.

I think you have to be a supporting member of TMC (red level) to be able to edit your original post indefinitely. Happy to contribute money to allow you to upgrade. Just lemme know your PayPal/Zelle/Venmo address.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/account/upgrades

 

[Unpilot]

I would gladly help fund his upgrade as well.

 

[aubreymcfato]

I collected all the links to Jessie's posts here to make it more convenient to read as a whole and share with others.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/2814570/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/2814894/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/2815380/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/2815696/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/2815875/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/2816679/

Someone on reddit made this, which is even better:
http://telegra.ph/Elon-Musk-vs-Short-Sellers-06-19

 

[SFInvestor21]

SFInvestor21, first please google the definition of FUD. But maybe you already know it because you are actively spreading FUD.

A few facts regarding the SolarCity deal:

1. The most important piece of evidence: even without Elon's vote, 85% of Tesla's shareholders voted FOR the Tesla/SolarCity merger. Do you understand the power of this voting result? In case you didn't know, Tesla disclosed this potential merger to shareholders in the early stage so every shareholder could have time to understand and make a fully informed decision. With shorts like Jim Chanos ponding the table everyday and explaining why it's a bad deal for Tesla, shareholders had plenty time to look at every potential drawback of the deal.

2. On Tesla's 2006 Master Plan, there is an item called "Provide solar power". Tesla has long planned to have a solar unit, it's not a sudden idea to buy SolarCity. SolarCity has unique value to Tesla. Elon likes to do Giga scale productions (car, energy storage, and solar energy). SolarCity has a Gigafactory in Buffalo which has access to low cost hydrapower energy, also the factory only costs $1 a year to rent. Put everything aside, this factory is super valuable for Tesla's Master Plan. SolarCity also has other assets that fit perfectly as the energy unit under Tesla. Most of SolarCity's debt was in solar bond, backed by income streams from installed solar panels. Today when I look at the $2.6B deal, I still think it's a great deal for Tesla from long term view. It will generate a lot of positive cashflow in the long run. Majority of Tesla shareholders focus on longterm economics and understand the value. Tesla is now testing/perfecting the solar roof. Based on the early results I saw online, (Yes it's already installed on some houses), this product makes a lot of sense. I am personally waiting to buy the solar roof.

3. For those who are not familiar with the matter, before merger, Elon was never the CEO of SolarCity and his involvement with SolarCity's day-to-day business was very limited. If Tesla didn't buy SolarCity, I have no doubt Elon would have taken SolarCity private and run it into a highly successful solar energy company. Elon has the capability and financial resource to do that. Unfortunately that would be a loss for Tesla shareholders. When I picked up my Model 3, I saw several customers talking to the rep discussing potential installation of solar panels/roofs. Now Tesla is becoming a one-stop shop for all the energy needs: cars, solar, energy storage.

Shorts say Tesla lose money on every car, and lose money on every solar installation. We will see what will happen in the next 6 months and the next few years.

I work for a long only fund so I’m not short the stock like many suggest just because I said Solarcity was a crappy business. You’re so confused about Solarcity it’s laughable. The VIEs didn’t produce enough cash flow to fund future projects which is why they had to tap the debt markets. $2.6B for an insolvent company was a terrible deal and is the reason Tesla is now such a big target for shorts. Solarcity hasn’t produced any free cash flow since the acquisition and installations have dropped considerably. Get your facts straight.