Elon Musk vs. Short sellers

[SPadival]

For those who are a little time poor, I have pasted the text here http://www.wepaste.com/MuskVersusShorts/ and then used the pocket app to convert text to speech and listen to it, podcast style (in the office ).

https://getpocket.com/apps/iphone/

Pretty engrossing listening

 

[Afraniy]

With respect, while I of course agree with your concept I do find it curious that you have made such a concerted effort to express such a concept on this brand new board very shortly after @jesselivenomore has provided a rather compelling argument connecting the dots to suggest that a massive amount of FUD-spreading effort may be able to be traced back to just a few individuals. Given the depth and breadth of his argument, it might be helpful for you at this point to go beyond a simple 'hey look over there' Machiavellian answer to help convince others that the net needs to be cast further and wider. Otherwise your efforts could be perceived as simply trying to portray those @jesselivenomore has cited in a better light.

Perhaps instead of generalizations you could share some specific examples with the board? I was routinely asked to do so when I first began posting on TMC in 2013 and at that time was yet unaware of the higher standards of fact finding/information sharing that people here routinely expect. They are a very formidable yet commendable group, and are walking the higher road as a result IMHO. Much appreciated.

Thank you for your reply. I'll try to rephrase my comment to be more clear. I am obsessed with Elon Musk as most of us here. I read, listen and watch everything remotely related to Tesla all the time. I see all the negativity towards Tesla. As I read Jesse's comment (amazing work by the way), There was a click in my head. Here is the story. Shorts have bet enormous capital against Tesla. They are loosing, and are using immoral methods to deny Tesla the access to capital and bankrupt it. Jesse identified these individuals and methods they were using. He explained why Elon is concerned with shorts attacks and why he is trying so hard to make Tesla profitable and eliminate this threat. I had this warm comforting thought, that after short squeeze, Tesla will have smooth sailing into the future.
But then again i started thinking further and realized that list of Tesla enemies does not end on short sellers. As i have said in previous comments, many people are uncertain of their future because of automation and autonomy. There is enormous competition in car, oil, grid etc industries. People that are known not to be fair players. Tesla's success basically means that these companies have to completely redesign themselves or perish.
Paracelsus, i didn't try to whitewash these shorters, i am saying there should be more. And i didn't share information or research, i just shared my thoughts after reading Jesse's work.

 

[Afraniy]

I started a thread a while back about “why do people want to see Tesla fail. There are some pretty good answers in it.
Why do people really want Tesla to fail?

Thanks.

 

[CatB]

@jesselivenomore Thank you! And brilliant.

@Afraniy That is also how I connect the dots on motivation. Occam’s razor.

But by far the biggest industry is the car industry, and they can't afford to lose many customers while they ready their EU-mandated EVs over the next decade. The EU regulations are pretty much set and can't be overturned. Cheating to make it look like the existing lineup better or trying to delay implementation are their only options (aside from, you know, just making awesome EVs that people want to buy).

^^ isn’t this just the never-ending Theodoric of York moment?!?
I ... I just. Don’t. Get. It (== why everyone else doesn’t get it).

And I imagine Elon isn’t disrupting other industries for the sake of disruption or personal gain. I have a feeling (only based on Vance’s bio and what I’ve seen/read here) that Elon knows change and disruption is inevitable. And if he can accelerate it to save humanity, that might be worth risking his life’s work and wealth to do.

 

[Afraniy]

Thousands lost their jobs when Nummi shut down. That had nothing to do with Elon. Tesla brought automotive jobs back to Fremont.

And I don’t think Elon/Tesla is trying to destroy existing industries. He’s just showing everyone that there’s a better, more sustainable way of doing things. It’s up to the competitors to adapt (or not). We’re seeing a flood of traditional automakers make significant investment in electric vehicles. If they stay on this path, there will still be jobs.

Totally agree with you. Elon does not intend to destroy anything. He wants to change things for better. It's just the ones that do not want to or cannot change will suffer.
For instance, and it is just one example of many. Fully autonomous cars will save lives of thousands of people. It is immoral to obstruct the adoption of autonomous cars, because it basically means killing people. But at the same time, millions of professional drivers will loose their jobs. There will be other new jobs in other industries, because advances in technology until now have created new jobs instead of destroyed ones.
But try to imagine this conversation with a professional taxi, or bus, or truck driver. "You see this new shiny Tesla? In couple of years it will be fully autonomous. Then few years after that you will be fired. But don't worry, there will probably be other jobs i am not sure where"

 

[commasign]

But try to imagine this conversation with a professional taxi, or bus, or truck driver. "You see this new shiny Tesla? In couple of years it will be fully autonomous. Then few years after that you will be fired. But don't worry, there will probably be other jobs i am not sure where"

For taxi drivers, Uber and Lyft are already changing the industry long before self driving arrives. For buses and trucks, it’s tunnels and hyperloops (in addition to platooning self-driving convoys where Tesla is going to be just one of many players). There aren’t any industries or technologies that are truly stagnant. The reality is that no one's job is guaranteed and we all could be fired in a few years for any number of reasons not related to Elon and Tesla.

 

[commasign]

So how many degrees of separation between Jim Chanos and Martin Tripp? I'm guessing 2 or 3.

Tesla sues alleged saboteur engineer who also apparently leaked false reports to media

 

[Sanny]

Great read! Still trying to connect all the dots in my head. The thing that bothers me is do we know when Chanos had announced his short position in Tesla? Do we have any info on that? Because the short interest was high almost always and if he started a big short only around Solar city acquisition there is a question who are these other massive shorts?

 

[neroden]

Great read! Still trying to connect all the dots in my head. The thing that bothers me is do we know when Chanos had announced his short position in Tesla? Do we have any info on that? Because the short interest was high almost always and if he started a big short only around Solar city acquisition there is a question who are these other massive shorts?

Good point. Tesla short-selling spiked massively around the SolarCity merger, but it was high before that.

If I remember correctly, the really extreme FUD really seemed to get going when the attack on SolarCity started. It was gentler and subtler before that. There was a lot of short-selling, and there were definitely "Tesla will go bankrupt" articles, and there were misleading articles spreading FUD about range anxiety, but the tone was different. This does seem to describe a *different* group of short-sellers. Maybe a more honest group; Andrea James said that she dealt with a bunch of NY clients who simply couldn't believe that Tesla would be successful (...and she told them to drive the car, among other things). Or maybe several different groups. I wouldn't be surprised if some of them have already covered their positions, and been more-or-less replaced by the current wildly dishonest gang.

 

[mongo]

Did short positions transfer to TSLA after the SolarCity merger with the stock conversion?

 

[neroden]

Did short positions transfer to TSLA after the SolarCity merger with the stock conversion?

Yes, they did.

If a short-seller owed 100 shares of SCTY to their broker, that was converted to a debt of 11 shares of TSLA owed to their broker.

 

[Boomer19]

Yes, they did.

If a short-seller owed 100 shares of SCTY to their broker, that was converted to a debt of 11 shares of TSLA owed to their broker.

yes. just some perspective after reading through a bunch of really good posts the last few days.
and just to be clear, (not trying to oversimplify or underestimate anyone’s understanding here) it’s more for those who aren’t as glued to the everyday goings on..and i’m certainly no expert, but
one shouldn’t think of shorts as one total balance from the start to the finish. there’s a lot of recycling of position going on in between then and now. as the stock moves and the rates move there’s covering and reinstating of short position. jockeying, ebbs and flows. and don’t forget derivatives. you have bond market, options market, CFDs (no trading allowed to US holders, but still significant market - and all OTC, the providers hedge positions, mostly by opposite stock position as cfd, prob some opt activity too)
although the 13f filing is supposed to include some of those as well as stock. SEC.gov | Form 13F-—Reports Filed by Institutional Investment Managers but these reports are past tense and can easily be misconstrued or gamed.

on a slight tangent, someone posted a good finding about the april 250 puts (ahead of the moody’s downgrade) and mr renz (i think) about activity during quiet periods. it’s not just to think of it as they go out and sell naked 1mm shares. and id venture to guess chanos probaby isn’t even in the top 10 of most shorted total at stake. the ~60 page excerpt that jesslivenomore included from the divide by taibbi... it mentions loeb chanos cohen and sender, but think of all the funds/algos that piggy backed the short of fairfax. that’s happening here probably multiple fold.. what’s the latest tally? 12bb short interest?
that’s a lot. and that’s only reported by the exchange every 15 days, which honestly does represent decent accuracy, but when tesla isn’t range bound, think of the volatility. in the periods wher the stock moves $50-$80 in a matter of 15 days..that’s happened both up and down over the last few years (but the more common $15-$30 swings also proved plenty of movement for options leverage ) that short interest number could swing a lot during those times when positions turnover and initiate again. then overlay it with the news cycle where it feels like “when it rains it pours”. now you start to realize this none of this is a coincidence.
on the lighter side, some similar arguments can be made for the upside as well i guess. however, i like those days
they seem more righteous than malicious

 

[Boomer19]

on another note, what media outlet(s) were the ones who broke the story at the time regarding these details (from the tripp event);
Tripp also made false claims about the information he stole from Tesla. Tripp claimed that punctured battery cells had been used in some Model 3 customer vehicles even though the evidence clearly demonstrates that no punctured cells were ever used. Tripp also used the Tesla data that he exported to grossly overstate the true amount and value of “scrap” material that Tesla generated during the manufacturing process, and he falsely claimed that Tesla was delayed in bringing new manufacturing equipment online at the Gigafactory.

i know i recently read somewhere... regarding punctured cells being used and tesla scrap being wasted to the tune of millions while they’re burning cash.. but i can’t remember where. for some reason i want to say zerohedge, it’s slimy enough for them. but i can’t be certain. i’ll keep looking but if someone else knows, pls throw a bone. thanks.

 

[S'toon]

Business Insider had a recent article about huge amounts of scrap, and punctured batteries.
Internal documents reveal Tesla is blowing through an insane amount of raw material and cash to make Model 3s, and production is still a nightmare

Breitbart:
Report: Tesla 'Wasting Jaw-Dropping Amount' of Materials, Cash to Make Model 3 | Breitbart

Bengal?
Internal documents reveal Tesla is blowing through an insane amount of raw material and cash to make Model 3s, and production is still a nightmare – Bengali News Live

 

[MP3Mike]

i know i recently read somewhere... regarding punctured cells being used and tesla scrap being wasted to the tune of millions while they’re burning cash.. but i can’t remember where. for some reason i want to say zerohedge, it’s slimy enough for them. but i can’t be certain. i’ll keep looking but if someone else knows, pls throw a bone. thanks.

Business Insider. In the latest article from the Washington Post about this he even admitted that he fed that information to Business Insider.

 

[Boomer19]

Business Insider. In the latest article from the Washington Post about this he even admitted that he fed that information to Business Insider.

also @s’toon thanks to both!
so it was linette lopez. figures. wonder if she’ll still
openly advertise at the end of every telsa hit piece for ex employees to contact her with stories...or if BI will put a chokehold on that BS. hacks.

 

[pz1975]

This is all really amazing. Makes me wonder if every or almost every source of "insider info" that has led to negative articles about Tesla has been complete BS by this guy and/or other slimeballs.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

We should really get someone to post this to Seeking Alpha or Forbes or somewhere and spam it around so it appears on search engines and eventually makes its way to aggregators like Google Finance.

 

[Reality]

This is all really amazing. Makes me wonder if every or almost every source of "insider info" that has led to negative articles about Tesla has been complete BS by this guy and/or other slimeballs.

Do we have evidence it is BS?

I think both sides should wait before saying one side is "wrong"


I find it very odd how Tesla is bringing the big guns to a blue collar guy who leaked production info. Seems like there has to be more to the story right? I mean Tesla ~~~~~~leaks production info to electrek weekly.

The battery accusation is pretty serious actually

 

[S'toon]

Here is Business Insider's report on the lawsuit.
Tesla is suing the employee Elon Musk claimed committed sabotage against the company

No mention of their own role in the affair.

Also I just love the last line:

If you've worked for Tesla and have a story to share, you can contact this reporter at [email protected].