Elon and Ukraine

[nativewolf]

Mod: this thread starts with posts that were moved from the main investment thread and the Ukraine/Russia thread.

Imagine the $500 plan is one trash can residental service.
The $4,500 plan is a commercial dumpster a day service.
Perhaps they are getting a dumpster's worth of service for the price of a can.

In Starlink terms, this is data and volume. Both limited quantities that SpaceX is paying for backbone interconnect on, along with opportunity cost of not selling that capacity to others. If they are turning down $4,500 subscriptions due to lack of capacity because if the donated bandwidth, that is a real loss.

I think the requested rate is very reasonable. It's just the timing. Frankly a hundred million or so for the service that was provided is not a bad deal as I see it. Dink around for a few tens of thousands of terminals and sign up. It's not the $. Starlink really does need the starship to get the constellation to scale so until then it is a significant expense for SpaceX. It's just behavior and messaging. But anyway. I'm going to stop responding to any of these posts as I might be sidetracking conversation in a negative manner.

 

[petit_bateau]

I think the requested rate is very reasonable. It's just the timing. Frankly a hundred million or so for the service that was provided is not a bad deal as I see it. Dink around for a few tens of thousands of terminals and sign up. It's not the $. Starlink really does need the starship to get the constellation to scale so until then it is a significant expense for SpaceX. It's just behavior and messaging. But anyway. I'm going to stop responding to any of these posts as I might be sidetracking conversation in a negative manner.

Something that is relevant is that this is giving Starlink (and US DoD et al) a really good workout at what it takes to harden a military grade Starlink. That's not something you get a chance to do in vivo at scale every day of the week.

 

[bkp_duke]

No doubt Elon is creating ill will. The whole tangent on Ukraine and the polls was terrible ugly. What right do any of us, in the USA, have to dictate to Ukraine what is and isn't worth fighting for? Supply starlink or not but don't tell try to condition that on the rights of others...scary. Because what EM obviously does not get...is that Ukraine will free itself of russia, it might take 5 years, it might take 10 but Crimea is Ukraine. All the Oblast voted to stay in Ukraine in the single and only free election in 1991.

That said I find it interesting that basically the internet service for a country is 120 million a year more or less.

Slava Ukraine

If I were being a conspiracy theorist I would say the following:
Elon is probably just seeing a lot of the military industrial complex profiting greatly from this by all the hardware the US Gov is freely handing over to Ukraine, and thinking "wait, why is SpaceX, which doesn't turn a profit, footing the bill for critical communications when the Pentagon and their 1T budget could easily do this?".

Can't same I blame him for that thinking. But I can blame him for the spectacle he made in the way he did it.

 

[JRP3]

Well, if people didn't think that Elon was an arse before, they sure do now. Talk about running an effective clinic on "How to double-down and ruin whatever scrap of reputation and good will you have left in 3 easy steps.

However, just looking at this the way the rest of world is going to see this, someone worth $200 billion is saying he can't afford an expense of around ~$10 million a month right after he made some really asinine posts on Twitter that looked pro-Russia and pro_mainland China.

In the eyes of the public he's really beginning to look like a Bond villain.

Yeah, an ambassador should be more diplomatic.

So should an Elon.

 

[kabin]

To be fair, SpaceX does have plans that can run $5,000 / month - have a look at their Maritime plans.

How this differs from the service that they are currently getting in the Ukraine, I don't know, but it was mentioned that they are using different terminals than the ones that are used for regular residential and business service.

Tesla advertises the Maritime system to be encrypted with a more sophisticated terminal whereas no such talk with Starlink's residential system. These days it's odd Starlink doesn't detail it's privacy protection efforts for residential/RV systems but that's a different story.

 

[ZachF]

Just be glad they did not put TSLA in that headline. Tesla's Musk won't pay for SpaceX terminals.

Has there been any company that has given more in $ to the Ukraine cause than SpaceX?

 

[cusetownusa]

If I were being a conspiracy theorist I would say the following:
Elon is probably just seeing a lot of the military industrial complex profiting greatly from this by all the hardware the US Gov is freely handing over to Ukraine, and thinking "wait, why is SpaceX, which doesn't turn a profit, footing the bill for critical communications when the Pentagon and their 1T budget could easily do this?".

Can't same I blame him for that thinking. But I can blame him for the spectacle he made in the way he did it.

I agree and was just thinking the same thing. Why do people expect SpaceX to do everything for free but don’t expect all the weapon manufacturers to send all of the weapons for free?

Doesn’t make any sense.

 

[kabin]

I think the requested rate is very reasonable. It's just the timing. Frankly a hundred million or so for the service that was provided is not a bad deal as I see it. Dink around for a few tens of thousands of terminals and sign up. It's not the $. Starlink really does need the starship to get the constellation to scale so until then it is a significant expense for SpaceX.

And SpaceX runs a risk of Russia damaging satellites so they still have skin in the game.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Well....Elon saying spacex cannot keep funding starlink access is fine, but when he tweets out statements like this...

 

[bkp_duke]

And SpaceX runs a risk of Russia damaging satellites so they still have skin in the game.

Not really. Shooting down that many satellites (over 3000 now) would literally bankrupt Russia. Those are missiles that were JUST proven in the past 12-18 months, and they don't have a lot of them. Hitting a target moving at 17,500+ MPH at 300 miles above you is no easy feat.

 

[aubreymcfato]

I agree and was just thinking the same thing. Why do people expect SpaceX to do everything for free but don’t expect all the weapon manufacturers to send all of the weapons for free?

Doesn’t make any sense.

It doesn't. But weapon manufacturers don't announce all they do and think on Twitter while they poop. They are more cunning. Elon doesn't really get how much noise he alone is making in the world. People are not rational, are full of emotions and in times like is need someone to blame. A lot of ill will is being created for free, this is for sure.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Well....Elon saying spacex cannot keep funding starlink access is fine, but when he tweets out statements like this...

View attachment 863720

At some point, when you’re working 24/7 and donating $70M to a country, you can get grumpy when they turn around and tell you to **** off. Elon has his limits and I’d probably tweet out something similar if I were in his shoes.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

At some point, when you’re working 24/7 and donating $70M to a country, you can get grumpy when they turn around and tell you to **** off. Elon has his limits and I’d probably tweet out something similar if I were in his shoes.

I agree, as always...elon is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. People are so quick to forget that he has humanity's best interest but always want to sh** on him at any given opportunity.

 

[larmor]

At some point, when you’re working 24/7 and donating $70M to a country, you can get grumpy when they turn around and tell you to **** off. Elon has his limits and I’d probably tweet out something similar if I were in his shoes.

That's real money and they should use their starlink provided terminals and internet service to trash elon and spacex.

 

[Singuy]

Well....Elon saying spacex cannot keep funding starlink access is fine, but when he tweets out statements like this...

View attachment 863720

Haha. SpaceX was donating money they don't have, it's not like they are profitable. So yeah, maybe don't be so entitled next time when you need the world to help you.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I agree and was just thinking the same thing. Why do people expect SpaceX to do everything for free but don’t expect all the weapon manufacturers to send all of the weapons for free?

Doesn’t make any sense.

I don't think people expect they do everything for free (to be clear it wasn't completely for free, the various governments did chip in), but the timing of Elon being taught a lesson on Twitter, makes it seem like this move was all because he got embarrassed and wanted to take his ball home. His recent tweet about this above, only reinforces that view.

If this moved happened without the whole tweet situation, I don't think people would be questioning the motives. Basically a PR disaster of his own making.

 

[Todd Burch]

I agree, as always...elon is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. People are so quick to forget that he has humanity's best interest but always want to sh** on him at any given opportunity.

I think Elon's best option is to follow his own advice--keep his head down, work hard behind the scenes at his companies, and stay out of the limelight in general. Like you say, no matter what he does he's going to get criticized--so just stay out of it all.

I know that's probably impossible for him, but it's the obvious choice to end all the criticism.

 

[Singuy]

Large threads on twitter with lots of engagement claiming that SpaceX never donated any satellite terminals because "they have never seen one on the field" that are donated, but self bought...despite their government officials literally tweeted pictures of the donated terminals.

SpaceX donating money they don't have just to get *sugar* on from the other side while all the articles are claiming the government is the ones paying for them anyways. Might as well get that money from the government.

 

[elasalle]

I think Elon's best option is to follow his own advice--keep his head down, work hard behind the scenes at his companies, and stay out of the limelight in general. Like you say, no matter what he does he's going to get criticized--so just stay out of it all.

I know that's probably impossible for him, but it's the obvious choice to end all the criticism.

So many click bait artists would lose their revenue stream think it is worth it.

 

[Beltsbear]

And SpaceX runs a risk of Russia damaging satellites so they still have skin in the game.

Each starlink sat costs around $250k. Nothing out there could shoot it down that costs less than 10's of millions of dollars. Russia probably could shoot down no more then 10 within a given year. They may indeed do this, to test their system and make a statement, but it will have zero operational effect and the cost of SpaceX is minimal, especially if they hit an older version sat.