Elon & Twitter

[AlanSubie4Life]

What does mDAU mean?

What does it mean compared to what Musk thinks it means?

First, I am sure Elon knows what mDAU means. He just continues to represent a different measure, and then disingenuously purports that looking at Tweet balance from spam/fake accounts vs regular users will bear any relationship to the mDAU measure.

So anyway, all these metrics are very different. The TLDR is:

1) mDAU have to use Twitter apps/website that are able to show ads to be counted, but there are other ways to access Twitter which are very likely to be used heavily by fake/spam accounts.

2) To be an mDAU, Tweeting is not required. So looking at ratios of fake/spam Tweets to real human Tweets is pointless.

 

[oneday]

2) To be an mDAU, Tweeting is not required. So looking at ratios of fake/spam Tweets to real human Tweets is pointless.

Thank you, this explains it perfectly!

 

[Daniel in SD]

In fact almost nothing can be deemed a material adverse effect. It's only happened once in the history of the Delaware Court of Chancery!

Delaware Chancery Court Finally Finds an MAE

The court found that a target company has suffered a material adverse effect, allowing the would-be buyer to abandon an announced merger.

www.jonesday.com

Elon's legal strategy is increasingly bizarre. Tweeting that the only issue holding up the deal is the mDAU bot auditing after you just paid your lawyers to write up a whole bunch of other claims seems ill advised... His lawyers need to advise him that tweets are admissible as evidence.

 

[CLK350]

Twitter's problems - bots, quarantining and shadow banning​

 

[Daniel in SD]

problems

My assumption is that everything Twitter does is to maximize ad revenue. Is that a problem? Maybe people like being in echo chambers and that's what maximizes engagement?
I am very interested to see what happens when Elon takes over and runs it as a public service.

Elon continues his strategy of undermining his own case. If the bot problem is known to everyone that makes it a lot harder to prove that Twitter's proprietary metric is deceptive.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1555988862522245120

 

[betstarship]

Normal Person - Consequences + Audience = Total ****wad

Totally holds true after so many years.

Green Blackboards (And Other Anomalies) - Penny Arcade

Videogaming-related online strip by Mike Krahulik and Jerry Holkins. Includes news and commentary.

www.penny-arcade.com

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556227162558144512

 

[Bouba]

Personally speaking, I think it would be an injustice if the Court rules against Elon. Twitter seem to be able to manipulate data with impunity...and by admitting it they think that’s a get out of jail free card.
It’s like if Tesla lied about how many cars they sold...by, for example, chalking up cancelled orders as sales.
Of course a court case seldom hinges on right or wrong....

 

[ohmman]

It’s like if Tesla lied about how many cars they sold...by, for example, chalking up cancelled orders as sales.

It's nothing like that. First, nobody has proven that the mDAU metric is wrong yet. There's only conflation with "bots on the platform" as a tactic to confuse laypeople. Advertisers care about mDAU and don't care about "bots on the platform." They care about human eyes seeing their ads - people who log in using twitter.com or the Twitter app.

There is no decent analogy to Tesla since Tesla isn't marketing their sales to a third party for monetization. Maybe if in the future, Tesla serves ads on the MCU during FSD (I know, bear with me) and estimates how many people are actually looking at the screen using the camera, that would be somehow similar. But if they put forward a best effort and say it's kind of impossible to know for sure.. well, that's what Twitter's doing.

 

[_Redshift_]

It's nothing like that. First, nobody has proven that the mDAU metric is wrong yet. There's only conflation with "bots on the platform" as a tactic to confuse laypeople. Advertisers care about mDAU and don't care about "bots on the platform." They care about human eyes seeing their ads - people who log in using twitter.com or the Twitter app.

There is no decent analogy to Tesla since Tesla isn't marketing their sales to a third party for monetization. Maybe if in the future, Tesla serves ads on the MCU during FSD (I know, bear with me) and estimates how many people are actually looking at the screen using the camera, that would be somehow similar. But if they put forward a best effort and say it's kind of impossible to know for sure.. well, that's what Twitter's doing.

I know you mean well, but I hope Elon didn’t read your post.

However, if we do start seeing ads next year on our screens, we all know whom to blame.

 

[Bouba]

There is no decent analogy to Tesla since Tesla isn't marketing their sales to a third party for monetization. Maybe if in the future, Tesla serves ads on the MCU during FSD (I know, bear with me) and estimates how many people are actually looking at the screen using the camera, that would be somehow similar. But if they put forward a best effort and say it's kind of impossible to know for sure.. well, that's what Twitter's doing.

Ok...how about range?

 

[Daniel in SD]

Ok...how about range?

Wait until you learn about how EV EPA range is calculated. It's more arbitrary than mDAU.
Manufacturers can use an outdated version of the EPA test and then apply a fudge factor of their choosing. Tesla takes full advantage. haha.
I bet @AlanSubie4Life could write a 127 page document of criticism.

 

[ohmman]

OK, we're straying way off topic here, but I can pleasantly state that my three different Teslas to date have gotten better than EPA range. Climate and small town/no highway driving helped a lot. But yeah, that's only because I'm in an ideal situation.

 

[_Redshift_]

Wait until you learn about how EV EPA range is calculated. It's more arbitrary than mDAU.
Manufacturers can use an outdated version of the EPA test and then apply a fudge factor of their choosing. Tesla takes full advantage. haha.
I bet @AlanSubie4Life could write a 127 page document of criticism.

Most experienced Tesla owners can attest to this. In my Model 3, it’s real range in good weather is around 275 miles. (325 mile range EPA)
Winter range (say going to Tahoe from the Bay Area for skiing) is around 220 miles.

My S got about 170 miles in good conditions. (208 miles EPA)
Winter range for my S… what winter range? I dare not take it out for a long drive in winter!

 

[Daniel in SD]

I think the range analogy isn’t bad.
It’s like if someone complained incessantly about the range of EVs and then signed a contract to buy Tesla. Later they try to back out of deal because Teslas do not achieve their stated range.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Uh oh. My primary source of information about the case might be a bot...
I can't figure out what probability this is supposed to indicate. Also not sure what threshold Elon used in his calculations.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556785282745339904

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Uh oh. My primary source of information about the case might be a bot...
I can't figure out what probability this is supposed to indicate. Also not sure what threshold Elon used in his calculations.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556785282745339904

View attachment 838316

Yep, not a good look for Twitter to have so many bots.

 

[30seconds]

Most experienced Tesla owners can attest to this. In my Model 3, it’s real range in good weather is around 275 miles. (325 mile range EPA)
Winter range (say going to Tahoe from the Bay Area for skiing) is around 220 miles.

My S got about 170 miles in good conditions. (208 miles EPA)
Winter range for my S… what winter range? I dare not take it out for a long drive in winter!

its definitely more than 5%

 

[CLK350]

Update for the record - Elon's countersuit response to Twitter's suit

This is Elon Musk’s case alleging Twitter committed fraud

The Musk argument against paying $44 billion for Twitter.

www.theverge.com

The countersuit can be downloaded there for the legal minded

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/22127591/musk-public-version-of-counterclaims-answer-w-cos.pdf

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Twitter’s market price starting to trend to what would be expected if Elon is either forced to acquire it or an out-of-court settlement with a small discount is reached.

It does seem that Elon values Twitter more highly than the market, so that opens up some room for a negotiated settlement to be reached, per the videos linked above.