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Elon & Twitter

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Elon's acquaintances getting drawn into the drama

 
Elon's acquaintances getting drawn into the drama

Twitter is trying to prove that Elon is looking for excuses to get out of the deal. They also issued subpoenas to all the banks to see if he is trying to sabotage the financing.
 
“Confirming the unreliability of Musk’s conclusion, he relies on an internet application called the “Botometer”—which applies different standards than Twitter does and which earlier this year designated Musk himself as highly likely to be a bot.
😱
Just checked my own score on botometer. 4.8 out of 5! though it did say ”not active, score might be innacurate.” Still it is possible I could be a replicant and not know it…
If Musk is also a bot would he be able to enter a legally binding contract? Something for his lawyers to consider.
 
From Twitter, Elon approving a summary

My take then is 1/ the original Twitter deal is off 2/ Elon buys Twitter at a reduced price, whether as part of a pre trial agreement or post original deal death, after the market* kills TWTR (*) unless of course the anti Tesla FUD comes to their sense and buys or inflate TWTR or 3/ Something else : D
The 24x7 live ongoing Tesla / TSLA / SpaceX / Elon / Twitter show goes on...

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From Twitter, Elon approving a summary

My take then is 1/ the original Twitter deal is off 2/ Elon buys Twitter at a reduced price, whether as part of a pre trial agreement or post original deal death, after the market* kills TWTR (*) unless of course the anti Tesla FUD comes to their sense and buys or inflate TWTR or 3/ Something else : D
The 24x7 live ongoing Tesla / TSLA / SpaceX / Elon / Twitter show goes on...

View attachment 837419


Twitter claims they use a random sample of mDAUs (this is literally the only correct way to do it) and they use human judgement to figure out if they're spam accounts. This Andrea Stroppa person doesn't seem to understand statistics, 3000 accounts a month is plenty.

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Listening to Elon at the shareholder meeting it did sound like he still wants to own Twitter. I'm not convinced his strategy is going to get him much of a discount though.
 
It’s very odd that Elon still doesn’t understand what mDAU means.

There’s literally no claim made by Twitter that less than 5% of Twitter daily users are fake/spam.

Not to mention that Elon still seems to think that users of Twitter would have a good feel for this %, based on how many Tweets seem to be fake/spam…which has nothing to do with the actual fake/spam %!

All very mysterious. He keeps repeating a claim that is not made by Twitter; they do not even make a claim that is remotely close to that claim. They claim (and this is paraphrasing; refer to their actual claim) less than 5% of mDAU are fake/spam. Not remotely the same thing.
 
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It’s very odd that Elon still doesn’t understand what mDAU means.

There’s literally no claim made by Twitter that less than 5% of Twitter daily users are fake/spam.

Not to mention that Elon still seems to think that users of Twitter would have a good feel for this %, based on how many Tweets seem to be fake/spam…which has nothing to do with the actual fake/spam %!

All very mysterious. He keeps repeating a claim that is not made by Twitter; they do not even make a claim that is remotely close to that claim. They claim (and this is paraphrasing; refer to their actual claim) less than 5% of mDAU are fake/spam. Not remotely the same thing.
What does mDAU mean?

Elon needs to stop trying to sic the SEC on Twitter.
 
I guess I should have qualified the statement better:

What does it mean compared to what Musk thinks it means?
As long as Twitter self-reports AND self-audits its use statistics, they mean very little. Let's hope that the court allows enough latitude to allow an independent audit of Twitter's numbers. I tend to doubt that will happen, though.
 
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As long as Twitter self-reports AND self-audits its use statistics, they mean very little. Let's hope that the court allows enough latitude to allow an independent audit of Twitter's numbers. I tend to doubt that will happen, though.
Technically the 10-K filings are audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers. The same auditor used by Tesla. It's odd that Elon is still using them...
Unless Elon can provide evidence that Twitter's SEC filing is fraudulent, and only the SEC documents filed after January 1st, 2022 are represented to be correct in the merger agreement, it doesn't seem like that will happen.
 
I guess I should have qualified the statement better:

What does it mean compared to what Musk thinks it means?
The key difference is, that Twitter first applies their algorithmic filter to eliminate bots/spam/fake accounts. What remains after the automated filtering process is what they call mDAU. Then they sample random 100 of those daily and apply manual human verification and claim <5% of those are bot, i.e. that's the error rate of their filtering algo.

On the other hand, Musk keeps repeating that a lot more than 5% of "daily active users" are bots -- which is certainly true, but nobody disputes that.
He seems to ignore the definition of mDAU and Twitter's process of automatic filtering of bots used in the definition of that number.
Further, Musk claims they do not use automated / AI method to filter bots, ony 100 human tests, which is clearly false.
 
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