Elon & Twitter

[xetairex]

It's almost as if people didn't know that Musk has made a habit of doing stupid/ expensive things which turn out to be incredibly profitable.

Can you name a Musk company that people didn't think would be a massive waste of time and money when he got involved?

Its almost as if you don’t understand the difference between Tesla and Twitter.

Tesla and SpaceX energized and motivated people. Twitter cannot, and will not do that. No matter how many conspiracy theories, vile anti-democrat wannabe dictators, or disgusting anti semites Elon thinks will achieve that goal.

Past performance isn’t guarantee of future success.

 

[italian bread]

You're kidding right?

I was replying to the first half of your post…It’s a waste of money and hasn’t been a success.

 

[MC3OZ]

I was replying to the first half of your post…It’s a waste of money and hasn’t been a success.

Has Elon given up?

Sometimes success takes a lot of persistence, something those who give up easily don't understand.

 

[Ogre]

Its almost as if you don’t understand the difference between Tesla and Twitter.

Tesla and SpaceX energized and motivated people. Twitter cannot, and will not do that. No matter how many conspiracy theories, vile anti-democrat wannabe dictators, or disgusting anti semites Elon thinks will achieve that goal.

Past performance isn’t guarantee of future success.

Again with this nonsense?

Google has for the past 15 years been absolutely horrible at respecting people's privacy. Over and over and over again they've been caught violating their own terms, using shifty language, just being sneaky about collecting as much information about people as they can.

Does that mean everyone Google hires is by nature "Anti-Privacy"?

No, the engineers at Google just don't see it that way or they are apathetic about the topic. People go to Google because there are interesting things going on there and the pay is good.

People will join Twitter for the same exact reason. Because there are interesting things going on there and the pay is good. Musk is there. Musk attracts people, particularly younger people who don't mind getting paid a lot and working long hours.

Just because a bunch of far left politicians are making a stink about Musk's attitude doesn't mean the whole country hates him. This is YOU, projecting your attitudes and your prejudices on the rest of the planet, nothing more.

 

[xetairex]

I can't remember the last time Elon simply gave up and walked away.

Perhaps on taking Tesla private, but some retail shareholders begged him not to do it.

I do remember him not giving up on:-

• Production Hell
• FSD
• Reusable rockets.

If we are looking for a product that has gone through plans A...K, perhaps the Solar Roof is that product, and again Elon isn't giving up.

I don't think Elon really cares that much about money, he will spend whatever it takes.

Elon might not care about his money. We TSLA shareholders care about ours.

If you are a smart investor, you’d too.

It doesn’t matter how much effort Elon puts in into Twitter. That by itself should be a red flag, since it WILL take his time away from Tesla. The point is there is no strategy that’s going to work for Twitter, in the way he has set out to achieve. Let me state why:

Free speech? Nope. It has to be regulated.
Screw advertisers. Nope, not enough subscribers.
Cut costs massively. Let’s see, it’s a massive dam. You don’t have enough people to maintain all the cracks and fissures, it will break. One day. No one knows when.

Where do you see the light at the end of this tunnel? Give me some credible reasons, if you can.

”he has been successful in the past”
”this is Elon, and I trust him”
”he never gives up”

Are general statements. Not substantial arguments. Past performance is not a guarantee of future success. Well understood corollary.

Finally, regarding TSLA volatility and the laughable advise people seem to give “if you don’t like volatility, don’t buy the stock”. Yeah, volatile because of bad decisions by a CEO who has become too erratic and delusional for his own good. That aspect can, and should be controlled. Then there need not be unnecessary volatility based on some stupid moves by Elon.

 

[Ogre]

I was replying to the first half of your post…It’s a waste of money and hasn’t been a success.

Tesla wasn't a success after 5 years either. Nor was SpaceX. Hell I don't think either were profitable after 10 years.

Musk looks at the world with long term plans. It is arguably the reason he is who he is.

People with goldfish memories I guess.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Pretty sure he’s just characterizing a trade group, Global Alliance for Responsible Media, as a woke mind virus or whatever.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/18/opinion/twitter-yoel-roth-elon-musk.html

Advertising revenue has probably continued to decline so he’s decided to use that as an excuse to do whatever he wants. In other words: look at what you made me do!

Thanks for the reference. Ironically Twitter itself is part of GARM:
Members & Governance - World Federation of Advertisers

I looked at its charter and decision making process. It seems it is mostly used to establish standards/guidelines and tools to address harmful content. They do have a mechanism to develop "solutions" members are technically obligated to implement, but I see nothing in the charter that precludes individual advertisers part of the group to decide to pause ads independently.
Charter - World Federation of Advertisers
Frequently Asked Questions - World Federation of Advertisers

There is a possibility that GARM had an action on the table that they paused to wait for the Council to form, but as mentioned above, that doesn't mean members (or non members advertisers) are obligated to continue buying ads at Twitter.

Looking at the linked NYT article however, it suggests Elon took specific issue with this statement from GARM:
GARM calls on Twitter to uphold existing commitments on brand safety and deepen future collaboration
It was a wake up call that showed advertisers still control Twitter's lifeline. Here's a direct quote that made things clear: "Brand safety is non-negotiable for advertisers."

The timing of the article was interesting too, it was before Trump was allowed back on the platform and when the Council was still in the cards. However the insider made it very clear "the near certainty of allowing Mr. Trumps account back on the service", so it appears everyone knew it was always going to be done regardless of the Council that may be formed. The author left because it was clear Musk wanted to call the ultimate shots on content moderation, so he viewed his role as unnecessary.

 

[MC3OZ]

Again with this nonsense?

Google has for the past 15 years been absolutely horrible at respecting people's privacy. Over and over and over again they've been caught violating their own terms, using shifty language, just being sneaky about collecting as much information about people as they can.

Does that mean everyone Google hires is by nature "Anti-Privacy"?

No, the engineers at Google just don't see it that way or they are apathetic about the topic. People go to Google because there are interesting things going on there and the pay is good.

People will join Twitter for the same exact reason. Because there are interesting things going on there and the pay is good. Musk is there. Musk attracts people, particularly younger people who don't mind getting paid a lot and working long hours.

Just because a bunch of far left politicians are making a stink about Musk's attitude doesn't mean the whole country hates him. This is YOU, projecting your attitudes and your prejudices on the rest of the planet, nothing more.

When I had staff at the plumbing supplies warehouse show unexpected enthusiasm for Tesla and express a desire the get a Cybertruck for deliveries, the only unsurprising thing is that they were under 30.

Had I encountered staff over 30 at the warehouse, if they noticed my Tesla it would have been a different conversation.

No doubt working for Elon at Twitter will look great on the resume of a young person looking to build their career.

 

[MC3OZ]

. Past performance is not a guarantee of future success.

Past performance is also not a guarantee of future failure.

But in any endeavour, I will back the guy who never gives up, over the one that gives up easily.

When Elon really needs to be less dumb, he usually is less dumb. He just likes to try all of the dumb ideas first.

 

[xetairex]

Again with this nonsense?

Google has for the past 15 years been absolutely horrible at respecting people's privacy. Over and over and over again they've been caught violating their own terms, using shifty language, just being sneaky about collecting as much information about people as they can.

Does that mean everyone Google hires is by nature "Anti-Privacy"?

No, the engineers at Google just don't see it that way or they are apathetic about the topic. People go to Google because there are interesting things going on there and the pay is good.

People will join Twitter for the same exact reason. Because there are interesting things going on there and the pay is good. Musk is there. Musk attracts people, particularly younger people who don't mind getting paid a lot and working long hours.

Just because a bunch of far left politicians are making a stink about Musk's attitude doesn't mean the whole country hates him. This is YOU, projecting your attitudes and your prejudices on the rest of the planet, nothing more.

The fact that you derisively dismiss this as nonsense says how much of a thinker you are.

Chief, there not just ‘far left politicians’ making a stick about Elon’s behavior. There are real, normal people regardless of political leanings (your attempt to paint it as only political again betrays your lack of rectitude) who are disgusted by:

1. Being friendly with the likes of Kanye (anti semite repugnant individual)
2. Inviting the openly anti democracy wannabe dictator, who organized an insurrection via Twitter back to Twitter
3. Without a shred of proof, propagated an extremely fringe conspiracy about Nancy Pelocy’s husband, without any empathy for the victim
4. Now encouraging people to vote for Walker while he has opposed clean air vehicles, in total departure from his stated mission of pursuing clean environment

Dont get me started on the quality problems and software problems at Tesla. I have two sin a very long time.

If you are not repulsed by this, now THAT’s nonsense. However, youd have to put down those rose colred glasses to see it, isnt it.

Lastly:”people want to join Twitter because there are interesting things going on there” is laughably generic nonsense. Nothing interesting is going on. Either they end up as Parler or they end up as WeChat. Tesla OTOH was super interesting. Still is. Ditto for SpaceX, though it’s hemorrhaging money.

 

[mach-edriver]

Tesla wasn't a success after 5 years either. Nor was SpaceX. Hell I don't think either were profitable after 10 years.

Musk looks at the world with long term plans. It is arguably the reason he is who he is.

People with goldfish memories I guess.

Musk didn't have to pay bondholders $100 million per month for those ventures.

 

[xetairex]

Past performance is also not a guarantee of future failure.

Are you saying Elon has failed in the past, but won’t this time? Not sure if you know what you are talking about.

But in any endeavour, I will back the guy who never gives up, over the one that gives up easily.

of course, and I would too. That’s not the only criteria to apply here. Where is the credible strategy for success? ‘I’ll keep trying’ is not credible. How long? What if none of the plans work? Then what? These are the questions anyone should be asking before embarking on such an expensive venture. IOW, substantial due diligence.

“When Elon really needs to be less dumb, he usually is less dumb. He just likes to try all of the dumb ideas first.”

I didn’t understand the above, despite trying very hard. Elon wants to be smart when he wants to be, but he likes to try dumb stuff first does not make any sense at all. No person who is rational would do that. Especially when time is short and bankruptcy is looking possible.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Again with this nonsense?

Google has for the past 15 years been absolutely horrible at respecting people's privacy. Over and over and over again they've been caught violating their own terms, using shifty language, just being sneaky about collecting as much information about people as they can.

Does that mean everyone Google hires is by nature "Anti-Privacy"?

No, the engineers at Google just don't see it that way or they are apathetic about the topic. People go to Google because there are interesting things going on there and the pay is good.

People will join Twitter for the same exact reason. Because there are interesting things going on there and the pay is good. Musk is there. Musk attracts people, particularly younger people who don't mind getting paid a lot and working long hours.

Just because a bunch of far left politicians are making a stink about Musk's attitude doesn't mean the whole country hates him. This is YOU, projecting your attitudes and your prejudices on the rest of the planet, nothing more.

I personally know people working at Google, the benefits there are great (including the free meals and shuttles), they allow remote work, they never pressured employees to accept an "extreme hardcore" work environment or resign, the executives didn't warn about the possibility of the company being bankrupt. The people working there don't need motivation about the mission of Google to want to work there.

Elon is ending such perks and that would mean Twitter as a company would be less attractive to work at (regardless of what people think of Elon himself). The point was never that there would be zero people willing to work there, but that they would not be motivated to accept such working conditions and be as dedicated as the employees in the early days of SpaceX and Tesla. Basically the tactics that worked to rally the troops at SpaceX and Tesla is unlikely to work at Twitter.

 

[Singuy]

I know personally people working at Google, the benefits there are great (including the free meals and shuttles), they allow remote work, they never pressured employees to accept an "extreme hardcore" work environment or resign, the executives didn't warn about the possibility of the company being bankrupt. The people working there don't need motivation about the mission of Google to want to work there.

Elon is ending such perks and that would mean Twitter as a company would be less attractive to work at (regardless of what people think of Elon himself). The point was never that there would be zero people willing to work there, but that they would not be motivated to accept such working conditions and be as dedicated as the employees in the early days of SpaceX and Tesla. Basically the tactics that worked to rally the troops at SpaceX and Tesla is unlikely to work at Twitter.

The fact that Tesla, a capital intensive new car company manufacturing in the most expensive state can manage to have more profitable quarters than Twitter in the past decade speaks volume at how broken the company culture is over there. Perks are great, but where's the result?

 

[MC3OZ]

Are you saying Elon has failed in the past, but won’t this time? Not sure if you know what you are talking about.

No I'm saying Elon hasn't failed in the past,

That track record of success doesn't mean he will fail. To the extent that his track record says anything, it says success is more likely than failure.

All you have is, your incomplete understanding of what he intends to do.

My incomplete understanding of what he intends to do, is that it will be a success, and not just because of Eon's track record.

For starters he has slashed company overheads, the site is still running, advertising is still there.

Given our incomplete understanding, we don't know if the reduction in expenses exceeds the reduction in revenue.

We don't really know who wants to work there, or doesn't want to work there.

The don't really know the attitude of advertisers, and how permanent that attitude is.

We also don't know that if Elon needs to be less dumb to win the advertisers back, what he will do about it.

What we don't know exceeds what we know by a big margin. But Elon's track record is known.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

You're kidding right? Many people STILL criticize it as a giant waste of money. It was literally funded by flame throwers and hats because Musk couldn't get financial backing for it.

Indeed - let's not forget the raging success of the hyperloop

 

[xetairex]

No I'm saying Elon hasn't failed in the past,

That track record of success does mean he will fail. To the extent that his track record says anything, it says success is more like than failure.

All you have is, your incomplete understanding of what he intends to do.

My incomplete understanding of what he intends to do, is that it will be a success and not just because of Eon's track record.

For starters he has slashed company overheads, the site is still running advertising is still there.

Give our incomplete understanding, we don't know if the reduction in expenses exceeds the reduction in revenue.

We don't really know who wants to work there or doesn't want to work there.

The don't really know the attitude of advertises and how permeant that attitude is.

We also don't know that if Elon needs to be less dumb to win the advertises back, what he will do about it.

What we don't know exceed what we know by a big margin. But Elon's track record is known.

I am not arguing that he WILL fail, all I am saying is chances look bleak, and you cannot rely on an argument that “ in the past he has been successful”. It is your argument, not mine.

My understanding of what he intends to do is incomplete. Obviously. I don’t believe Elon has a complete understanding of what he intends to do. At first he tried to ’appease’ the advertisers. Then he decided to go ‘thermonuclear’ on them. First he promised there won’t be layoffs. Then he laid off vast numbers. He made the blue check mark purchasable. Then he paused that.

Yeah, in the past he wasn’t as polarizing or arrogant. That was also a track record. Now he is. So, there is no guarantee. You have your rose colored glasses, and see possible success based purely on a hunch going by his past successes.

I have my skeptics glasses on, and say, Twitter, if it exists at all 3 years from now, will be either a WeChat wannabe or a Parler Wannabe. Not much more. Unless:

Elon walks back the free speech lies he bandies around.
Keeps costs very low at Twitter without compromising app integrity.
Bans people engaging any sort of hate speech, racism, and other nonsense.

Thats at a minimum. how many of those do you see as likely? Be honest!

If he achieves all that, and adds features such as payments, and other stuff, then, only then might Twitter actually become very successful.

 

[Ogre]

The fact that you derisively dismiss this as nonsense says how much of a thinker you are.

The fact that I derisively dismiss your response is a sign that I've seen the same argument over and over and over and am tired of hearing it. Wasn't convincing before and it still isn't.

Was not respectful and I apologize for that.

Chief, there not just ‘far left politicians’ making a stick about Elon’s behavior. There are real, normal people regardless of political leanings (your attempt to paint it as only political again betrays your lack of rectitude) who are disgusted by:

You say "Regardless of political leanings" and then list a bunch of political reasons which have been beaten to death like the dead horse they are.

1. Being friendly with the likes of Kanye (anti semite repugnant individual)

I totally understand why people are bothered by Musk's association with him, but your point is... nonsense.

Kanye is literally one of the most popular people in the country. There are almost certainly more people who are drawn to Musk because of his association with Kanye than the reverse. He's not my bag-of tea either, but you are pretty out of touch if you don't realize this is the case.


But you've either missed my point, or are trying to dodge it entirely.

If Twitter only attracts anti-woke people (not my phrase), does Google only attract anti-privacy people?

 

[xetairex]

The fact that Tesla, a capital intensive new car company manufacturing in the most expensive state can manage to have more profitable quarters than Twitter in the past decade speaks volume at how broken the company culture is over there. Perks are great, but where's the result?

It’s expensive because there are high paying jobs in the tech sector, which attracts highly skilled workers, who earn more, and that leads to inflation.

No one held a gun to Elon’s head to start Tesla where he did.
He got the GM plant in Fremont for pennies on the dollar. A great perk.
He got the top software and hardware talent anywhere in the world.
He got nearly 40% of the initial customer base from California. which was a great boost to Tesla.

Company culture is not broken there. Your understanding of California definitely is.

Elon got arrogant and forgot all of the above, just like his followers nowadays and showed the middle finger to California after attempting to violate COVID safety rules. Yet, his Fremont plant still continues to operate. His R&D is still mostly here in California.

So, please, stop with the absurdity and blind hate of California.

 

[Ogre]

I personally know people working at Google, the benefits there are great (including the free meals and shuttles), they allow remote work, they never pressured employees to accept an "extreme hardcore" work environment or resign, the executives didn't warn about the possibility of the company being bankrupt. The people working there don't need motivation about the mission of Google to want to work there.

Elon is ending such perks and that would mean Twitter as a company would be less attractive to work at (regardless of what people think of Elon himself). The point was never that there would be zero people willing to work there, but that they would not be motivated to accept such working conditions and be as dedicated as the employees in the early days of SpaceX and Tesla. Basically the tactics that worked to rally the troops at SpaceX and Tesla is unlikely to work at Twitter.

Setting aside your assumptions here.

What does a typical offer for an engineer look like for Twitter versus Google?

Do you even know? I'm pretty sure you are just making a pile of assumptions here.

Yes, Musk got rid of the cafeteria. That's not a major part of people's compensation or the work environment.