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It will be interesting to see how well this story stands up .... bearing in mind the underlying origin seems to be zerohedge ....

(Whether there is a knock-on financial effect is undisputed. The real issue is whether physical cargo is getting sold through from Russia to Europe.)

 
It will be interesting to see how well this story stands up .... bearing in mind the underlying origin seems to be zerohedge ....

(Whether there is a knock-on financial effect is undisputed. The real issue is whether physical cargo is getting sold through from Russia to Europe.)

Well ruzzian LNG/gas I think is only banned in my country and Estonia from 2023, I though all other countries accept it
 
Well ruzzian LNG/gas I think is only banned in my country and Estonia from 2023, I though all other countries accept it
If Russian LNG cargoes are genuinely ultimately making their way to Europe via China this would be a significant mis-utilisation of the limited numbers of LNG ships. I say this because Russia actually has the one LNG liquefaction plant in the north-east Pacific (Sakhalin 2) and so LNG carriers from there would need extremely long transit times to reach Europe, so the effective shipping capacity would reduce. Far more cost-effective for Russian Pacific cargoes to continue going to Japan/Korea/China markets and for the J/K/C markets to take less cargoes from MidEast/Atlantic. Then the MidEast/Atlantic cargoes can do the shorter route to Europe. That ultimately would maximise profit for the various players.

With respect to the other operating Russian LNG liquefaction plant (Yamal) that appears to be struggling to find buyers in Europe. I know a lot of ports in Western Europe are simply refusing to accept Russian cargoes, and some traders are refusing to deal those cargoes. If indeed they are having to ship that to Asia-Pacific clients then again that will be badly affecting overall shipping capacity. Also from what I can read they are suffering from maintenance issues due to parts availability in Yamal. The plant that is in-build (Arctic LNG) appears to basically no longer be able to be completed, although with train 1 at 95% complete surely they can figure out the final bit.

So I'm not quite sure what to make of it. Possibly it is deliberate hit-piece from zerohedge, possibly it is a simple misunderstanding. There's enough truth in it though that it would be good if someone could dig into it further.

I'm also not sure to what extent any of this is affected by the moves to open up the Arctic Circle passage and the extent to which that is actually being done in a commercially effective manner.

One thing is for sure, there's a lot more flaring going on in Russia these days.

List of LNG terminals - Wikipedia


 
tidying up before the weekend

UK isolated (sigh, again)

I predict demand side will not get traction unless the cake gets shared evenly with the consumers, but at least the size of the cake is being quantified
and horribly complex
.... all for just 5% ...... hmm
 
It will be interesting to see how well this story stands up .... bearing in mind the underlying origin seems to be zerohedge ....

(Whether there is a knock-on financial effect is undisputed. The real issue is whether physical cargo is getting sold through from Russia to Europe.)

I will note that though I read the site they appear to be owned by Russians. The quality of and direction of editorials there shifted markedly in last 8 months. At least it appears to me.
 
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WTI $83.2/bbl
Brent $88.9/bbl
NL TTF gas €179/MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Gas down sharply from €204. Storage facilities in Germany were 91.3% full as of September 30th and gas from Russia now represents around 9%, compared to 40% before the war in Ukraine.

Russia gas sulks on another customer, Italy

Europe gas backfills in Ukraine

EU moving on pricing

Deutsche & Credit Suisse under pressure, unclear to what extent energy exposure relevant
and

Bird flu spreads, embeds

VW sells silver before price collapse .... Porsche

Intel sells silver ..... MobilEye

in ?? unrelated ?? move .....

Tesla shows AI teeth

Tesla Q3 P&D in

Hydrogen stream firms

Chinese solar juggernaut raises prices

Indians beginning to get right GW-scale units in solar mfg

LFP for 2-8h duty

Bundling virtuality

Develop, derisk, flip, repeat

The 20MW are coming
 
Good to see more utility scale, but commoditized, battery solutions arriving. I expect others . At 3 mw this becomes useful for small industry, you could time shift a gold mine, or a lumber mill or other resource/extraction related industries.

We just got a quote on a boiler for wood drying kilns that would utilize waste wood being feed into a boiler to produce the heat to dry the lumber. Anyway, million $ for the boiler system. That's a whole lot of solar if these utility scale battery prices can be competitive. I think there must be literally hundreds of thousands of similar cases. Then the value of time shifting is in and of itself great in conjunction with solar and wind, even if you have good electrical supply. Getting 3 phase into our sawmill site will be hundreds of thousands as well.
 
WTI $84.1/bbl
Brent $89.5/bbl
NL TTF gas €162/MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Front-month Dutch gas futures declined towards €160 MWh, the lowest in over ten weeks, as concerns about shortages eased on milder weather and full stockpiles.

Note that under $80 the US fraccers won't play.

Fracc performance gains tapering off (the laterals get longer, the production increase not so much)

ZPPN boss abducted by Russia

Japan shifts nuclear

Italy delusional

EU cap revealed, affects

UK real gas

Ukraine-Poland rail, note coal will start moving in bulk on this soon

UK rail, complicated

my prediction too little too late for UK mfg industry

RWE buys into USA

Morningstar for inverters (this is the other Morningstar)

Islands for sale, 2023 (not sunny ones)

Middle Corridor progress (i.e. China-Europe rail avoiding Russia) - step by step the pieces are building out
and
overal context
and

Musk does stupid
 
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WTI $86.6/bbl
Brent $91.9/bbl
NL TTF gas €162/MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Russia’s Gazprom said gas flows via Austria to Italy are resuming following the suspension of flows over the weekend amid regulatory challenges. [Q. How has the payments issue been solved - EUR, USD, or roubles at an artificial rate ?]

ZNPP boss released

Burning primary forest as coal substitute is BAD

JohnKempReuters gas storage chartbook : looking hopeful, not certain

Finland powers up

Ukraine looks ahead --- nuclear BEV chargers

Germans have agreement ..... note the French nuclear news in this

UK does not yet have agreement

Shell seeks known amount of pain

because .... talk is cheap

... but the bill is coming

fossils never miss an opportunity to prove dinosaur ancestry

.. downhole biohydrogen in Permian fraccer future

Puerto Rico gets much needed love
and

More heat pump manufacturing in EU

more nukes for Japan anyone ?

how much is the battery doing ?

Russia-India rail route is actually via sea, but still important progress

post-Brexit empty shelves in UK shops may improve
 
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WTI $87.5/bbl
Brent $93.2/bbl
NL TTF gas €175/MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

The other nuclear card, Poland

Opinions vary, depends which lense one looks through
and
and
but
and

Delay very costly

Crime scene tape in place

Let them be priced out into the cold, UK ....

Give them money, Germany ....

Excess rents ...

Coal in motion

US credits countless

Ammonia-hydrogen diesel trains

Liquid planes

China-Laos-Thailand rail link new bridge route upgrade

Regulatory capture so much more profitable than competition dahling

The scale is right, South Africa

Big battery Australia (note shorter duration, 2h)

Battery USA big bucks .... eek

Baby steps, Japan offshore

Anything but baby steps, Chinese BEV
 
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Do large Wind Farms have an effect on Ocean currents? No more Wind Power for Cape Cod
Yeah, the knowledge that lawfare exists on Cape Cod and similar places directly affected my decision to leave USA about 20-years ago. I could see that it was going to be harder to get traction there than in other places, and since that was the area I was in I was going to have to move one way or another. I remember speaking with the Mayflower / Marthas Vineyard etc people in their first months when they weren't even sure what to call themselves, and thinking that I could achieve more by putting my efforts in somewhere else. Mind you I discovered just as much NIMBYism and lawfare in the other places !
 
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Reactions: navguy12
WTI $88.8/bbl
Brent $94.8/bbl
NL TTF gas €160MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Gas down from €175 yesterday.

German velvet kindness
because

UK power ....... story changes daily .......
or

OPEC reaction

Pricing without fossils

1.3GW of Dogger D is moving

1.5GW offshore Poland also moving

French solar mfg - go big or go home : they shut down

India solar mfg - 550W and going big
NeoSol unveils 550 W mono PERC solar modules

Europe money flood

US money flood

Compressed air storage proof test

In case anyone hasn't noticed China turbines are now world dominant on low price and good quality ..... TSLA take note !

Taiwan invastion scenario

China Asia rail

WoodMac blurb
 
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Would Wind Turbines in Ocean environments require more maintenance and have a shorter life span over land Wind Turbines
Hmmm .....

That's a more difficult one to answer than you'd think.

Onshore turbines typically max out at abot 2-3MW. Offshore turbines typically max out at about 10-15MW though that will increase towards 20MW in the coming years. You simply cannot erect a 15MW turbine onshore - the crane needs a ship to move it around, the stuff won't fit on a road, etc.

I make the point because size does matter. It allows all sorts of things so that everything runs more smoothly and in better machinery conditions. Turbulence is mostly reduced offshore, wind speeds are steadier. Some marine corrosion issues are obviously worse.

On balance I'd say that modern offshore turbines require less maintenance and longer life spans than modern onshore turbines. They also tend to have better capacity factors. But they also cost more so at the moment the energy from them is also more costly.

Would you like to explain why you are asking ?
 
Will it be even possible for a country to go 100% renewables by 2035. No Coal No Nuclear and no Oil. Germanys is planning on shutting down Nuclear power by the end of 2022
 
Will it be even possible for a country to go 100% renewables by 2035. No Coal No Nuclear and no Oil. Germanys is planning on shutting down Nuclear power by the end of 2022
Yes.

I can be emphatic in my answer because I have designed (and built) these systems for many years, and they are scale-neutral. Actually scale is to an extent advantageous.

Whether it would be economically sensible is a different matter. As I have often pointed out to clients, getting the last 10% or 2% or 1% of fossil fuels out of a system is very expensive and often not economically justifiable.

For a large country the existing fossil fuel generators on the electrical grid (esp any 'simple' gas turbines) can be used to provide quick-response reserve so as to get to (say) 90% more easily than trying to get to 100%.

One should try to keep a sense of balance in these things.

*** BUT *** for a country to go fully renewable energy, as opposed to 'just' a fully renewable electricity grid, then they would also need to switch all of their vehicles to BEV and build a certain amount (less than you'd think) of extra renewables generation and grid infrastructure. Also all the heating/cooling in buildings would need to shift across to electric heat pumps. Again that can be done, and could be done by 2035, but does increase the economic challenge.

Some countries are making good progress - take a look at Fig 2 in this. Personally I'd ignore Norway as it is somewhat hypocritical to be claiming to be running your country on 75% renewables when th eentire economy depends on pulling fossil fuels out of the ground. But as you can see good progress is being made.

 
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Will it be even possible for a country to go 100% renewables by 2035. No Coal No Nuclear and no Oil. Germanys is planning on shutting down Nuclear power by the end of 2022
100% possible.

All about political will which is.... very lacking.

A WWII type mobilization could probably manage this in seven to eight. That definitely not happening.