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Yes.

I can be emphatic in my answer because I have designed (and built) these systems for many years, and they are scale-neutral. Actually scale is to an extent advantageous.

Whether it would be economically sensible is a different matter. As I have often pointed out to clients, getting the last 10% or 2% or 1% of fossil fuels out of a system is very expensive and often not economically justifiable.

For a large country the existing fossil fuel generators on the electrical grid (esp any 'simple' gas turbines) can be used to provide quick-response reserve so as to get to (say) 90% more easily than trying to get to 100%.

One should try to keep a sense of balance in these things.

*** BUT *** for a country to go fully renewable energy, as opposed to 'just' a fully renewable electricity grid, then they would also need to switch all of their vehicles to BEV and build a certain amount (less than you'd think) of extra renewables generation and grid infrastructure. Also all the heating/cooling in buildings would need to shift across to electric heat pumps. Again that can be done, and could be done by 2035, but does increase the economic challenge.

Some countries are making good progress - take a look at Fig 2 in this. Personally I'd ignore Norway as it is somewhat hypocritical to be claiming to be running your country on 75% renewables when th eentire economy depends on pulling fossil fuels out of the ground. But as you can see good progress is being made.

In fairness to Norway, they are only doing what the world as a whole should be doing. Taking the profits (industry and modern civilization, not XOM's earnings) from fossils, which the entire world runs on, and switching to renewables. Is there any other way to manage this?

Norway's hypocrisy could be singled out if they do not finish the job at home and then not go out of their way to help do the same elsewhere.
 
In fairness to Norway, they are only doing what the world as a whole should be doing. Taking the profits (industry and modern civilization, not XOM's earnings) from fossils, which the entire world runs on, and switching to renewables. Is there any other way to manage this?

Norway's hypocrisy could be singled out if they do not finish the job at home and then not go out of their way to help do the same elsewhere.
Except that they are pulling more dino-juice out the ground than is needed just for their own needs.

I am all in favour of the concept of fossils as a transition fuel. But I am not so in favour of giving over-credit to a country like Norway for being c. 70-80% renewables when the sum ignores the massive impact of their fossil exports. Add that factor back in and (guess) they'd collapse to (say) 15%.
 
WTI $91.8/bbl
Brent $97.0/bbl
NL TTF gas €157MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Calm down everybody

But get the evidence

Saudi has friends

DUNC backlog sharply down, new well rate barely trembles
Number of drilled but uncompleted U.S. wells continues to decline from record in 2020

UN agrees aviation net zero for 2050

Nuclear down trend

UK pretty much tries to ban solar ! (these Cons are utter fossils)

Norway TLP floater test

Australian floater grows

Hydrogen matters

EU solar dreamtime

German big grid battery

Another flow battery

Easing off grid

Texas for Tesla VPP

Rail sidings matter

Do English locos dream of 61%, German ones already have it
 
question on floating offshore wind: How do they plan to reduce the costs? I was looking at that project up in scotland and man...levelized costs look to be on par with nuclear. Very high. Capacity utilization was high but at such high costs. What's the plan to reduce that? Or is it just a reach for greater utilization capacity at any cost?
 
question on floating offshore wind: How do they plan to reduce the costs? I was looking at that project up in scotland and man...levelized costs look to be on par with nuclear. Very high. Capacity utilization was high but at such high costs. What's the plan to reduce that? Or is it just a reach for greater utilization capacity at any cost?
Which of the projects were you looking at please ? Then I can comment specifically.

But in general it is just steady progress on everything:
- bigger turbines so $/MW and $/MWh reduces
- better turbines with greater performance (closer to Betz limit)
- taller turbines so hub windspeeds increase
- greater capacity factors in ever-windier offshore locations
- grinding down build costs with volume production
- grinding down install costs with volume projects
- grinding down softcosts with project standardisation
- grinding down financing costs with further acceptance of CfD mechanisms
- reduced O&M costs

There is no one magic bullet. This is the recipe that the wind industry has successfully used to bring down costs for onshore wind (to now being best levelised cost vs any alternative). It is so far working well as a recipe for offshore fixed wind and by no means plateauing yet. And although it is early days it is making progress as a recipe for offshore floaters. We have yet to see a dominant design for the floater/anchor section and I think that will emerge over the next ?? 5-years and when that becomes clearer it will greatly accelerate the learning curve effect. Also the floaters won't really be viable (imho) until the standard turbine is minimum 15MW each, preferably 20MW each.
 
WTI $90.2/bbl
Brent $95.3/bbl
NL TTF gas €162MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Wind turbine production record

UK forgot to say

Gazprom throws FUD from 2015 around Nordsteam
(explainer : The object was a Seafox ROV which uses 1.4kg of explosives to detonate mines. The estimated explosives used to attack Nordstream was 100kg.)
more info

GE wind woes, more info

Sweating heat pumps

Pushing down solar project costs

DC scavengers

24 GW at a time :) in Bulgaria

20 GW in Brazil

Dumping permits
 
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Which of the projects were you looking at please ? Then I can comment specifically.

But in general it is just steady progress on everything:
- bigger turbines so $/MW and $/MWh reduces
- better turbines with greater performance (closer to Betz limit)
- taller turbines so hub windspeeds increase
- greater capacity factors in ever-windier offshore locations
- grinding down build costs with volume production
- grinding down install costs with volume projects
- grinding down softcosts with project standardisation
- grinding down financing costs with further acceptance of CfD mechanisms
- reduced O&M costs

There is no one magic bullet. This is the recipe that the wind industry has successfully used to bring down costs for onshore wind (to now being best levelised cost vs any alternative). It is so far working well as a recipe for offshore fixed wind and by no means plateauing yet. And although it is early days it is making progress as a recipe for offshore floaters. We have yet to see a dominant design for the floater/anchor section and I think that will emerge over the next ?? 5-years and when that becomes clearer it will greatly accelerate the learning curve effect. Also the floaters won't really be viable (imho) until the standard turbine is minimum 15MW each, preferably 20MW each.
Hywind?
 
That's basically one of the very first, largely intended to get the process going. As such this is much more costly than we would expect future ones to be. It is also intended to shock Aberdeen into realising that the UK offshore sector needs to embrace wind rather than hoping for any more oil & gas boomlets. That makes it quite political, and also quite exposed to what I consider to be the overly high UK offshore O&G cost-base as opposed to the renewables cost-base which is rooted in thrift.

To be honest I see very little long term domestic value capture going on in either UK wind or UK solar and pretty much all the opportunities to do so have been squandered. The US is doing far better in that regard, as are the main EU players, of course China, and increasingly India.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: navguy12
WTI $88/bbl
Brent $93/bbl
NL TTF gas €158MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

OPEC back Russia, enters hot water with USA
and

EU talking

Choking China

Not yet thought to be sabotage

ZPPN woes
and
and
and
and

Ukraine rail struggle now
but longer term better

Hungary to Trieste ... will affect Tesla

Peak fossils ?

Europe heavy industry makes the switch

0.5GW offshore Scotland

1.2GW offshore China

Siemens big beast blinks, emerges

Greek success : first one hour, then one day, then one week .........

Bulgarian struggles

Mediterranean luvvy duvvy oil & gas

Why are the Cons so dumb on solar ?
and all renewables
and

France sticks on nuclear

Hydrogen matters

Russia-Iran rail
and
 
WTI $87.8/bbl
Brent $93.0/bbl
NL TTF gas €157MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Saudi unfriends USA
and explains why .........

91 GW -->> 185 GW of offshore floaters

ECT dyke starts leaking ... all EU countries are heading towards the exit but this is the first to actually pull the trigger

Hungary shows off new bessy mates

9.5GW Egypt - Europe cable proposed

1GW hybrid Andorra

Chinese solar juggernaut

Graphene battery ........
 
WTI $87.5/bbl
Brent $93.0/bbl
NL TTF gas €146MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Natural gas futures linked to TTF, Europe's wholesale gas price, were trading around the €150 per megawatt-hour mark, a level not seen since early July, and on track for an almost 6% weekly decline, as abundant supplies of LNG, particularly from the US, helped countries fill storage sites ahead of the winter session. Europe's gas storage sites are more than 91% full, above the five-year average, while Germany's stockpile rate reached 95%. On top of that, forecasts for a milder winter, with above-normal temperatures during the peak heating season between December and February, could suggest lower heating demand. Still, TTF natural gas futures were more than four times higher than average for this time of the year, with risk remaining on the upside amid concerns about further supply disruptions, particularly those from Russia.

EU gassing .... NL TTF on notice

Poland achieves what UK still can't do

56x in offshore wind .......
bottom-fixed and floating offshore wind levelised costs of energy (LCoE) are forecast to drop by 39 per cent and 84 per cent,

Switch faster to minimise inflation, now why didn't I think of that ?

Microscope required to find Pakistan ambition

908 MWh battery live in California

US EIA forecasts rising prices

Electric boats, barges, ships
and

Heat pump cost reduction (this for ease of scavengers)

Japan blinks ?
 
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WTI $87.5/bbl
Brent $93.0/bbl
NL TTF gas €146MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Natural gas futures linked to TTF, Europe's wholesale gas price, were trading around the €150 per megawatt-hour mark, a level not seen since early July, and on track for an almost 6% weekly decline, as abundant supplies of LNG, particularly from the US, helped countries fill storage sites ahead of the winter session. Europe's gas storage sites are more than 91% full, above the five-year average, while Germany's stockpile rate reached 95%. On top of that, forecasts for a milder winter, with above-normal temperatures during the peak heating season between December and February, could suggest lower heating demand. Still, TTF natural gas futures were more than four times higher than average for this time of the year, with risk remaining on the upside amid concerns about further supply disruptions, particularly those from Russia.

EU gassing .... NL TTF on notice

Poland achieves what UK still can't do

56x in offshore wind .......
bottom-fixed and floating offshore wind levelised costs of energy (LCoE) are forecast to drop by 39 per cent and 84 per cent,

Switch faster to minimise inflation, now why didn't I think of that ?

Microscope required to find Pakistan ambition

908 MWh battery live in California

US EIA forecasts rising prices

Electric boats, barges, ships
and

Heat pump cost reduction (this for ease of scavengers)

Japan blinks ?

The story in the link in Chinese (after I ran it through Google Translate) reminded me of my first time on an electric ferry boat (about two months ago)…no noise, no vibration, no smell…just cruising along.

I hope to still be around when city traffic will be just as serene.
 
What ever happened to the large Solar Array in Ivanpah Ca?
It was in production until recently (end 2020), and appears it still is running. I've not heard of it shutting down and the production data is still smooth


 
WTI $86.4/bbl
Brent $92.5/bbl
NL TTF gas €131MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Natural gas futures linked to TTF, Europe's wholesale gas price, were trading around the €130 per megawatt-hour mark, a level not seen since late June, as abundant supplies of LNG, particularly from the US, helped countries fill storage sites ahead of the winter session. Europe's gas storage sites are more than 91% full, above the five-year average, while Germany's stockpile rate reached 95%. On top of that, forecasts for a milder winter, with above-normal temperatures during the peak heating season between December and February, could suggest lower heating demand. Meanwhile, the European Union is due to propose new energy measures to tackle the ongoing energy crisis on Tuesday, including a range of options for natural gas price caps.
- see also
and

But rail rumbles

Forked tongue Mog

Wowsers solar growth implication - 80% - can you say boom'n'bust cycle ?
and
because
beware missing price signal

Chinese tremor
and

Hydrogen nibbles

Hydrogen unwelcome
 
WTI $85.8/bbl
Brent $92.1/bbl
NL TTF gas €116MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Natural gas prices in Europe fell for a fourth day on Tuesday, with front-month Dutch gas futures trading at €120 MWh, the lowest in four months

30% of Ukraine power plant destroyed by Russia (mostly using Iran drones)

EU talking ... still...

Europe LNG choked, and storage full ....... I wonder who is paying the demurrage and shrinkage ?

Subsidy-free floaters Portugal

EU scenario tool

US nuclear hope

... but stiff competition coming

Swedish nuclear hope

Northern hope

China-Europe-Africa train (sort of)

... but add this and almost true

 
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WTI $83.7/bbl
Brent $90.7/bbl
NL TTF gas €113MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Ukraine braced

EU gas price stable for now, further EU studies ongoing

US-Saudi stuff

US SPR refill at $72

Renewables filling in the gaps

That's a big blade

Japanese floater next step

Fracking quakes in England

Kaliningrad rail
 
WTI $88.1/bbl
Brent $94.4/bbl
NL TTF gas €130MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Front-month Dutch gas futures surged 10% to €124 MWh on Thursday, edging up from a 4-month low of €107 hit on Wednesday, boosted by lower-than-expected gas output in Norway.


Ukraine suffers - curbs power usage
Ukraine will begin restricting electricity supplies across the country starting from 7am today in response to Russia’s strikes against its energy infrastructure. Ukrainians will now need to prepare for “rolling blackouts” and people will have to conserve energy, the deputy head of the president’s office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, warned. In a Telegram update posted late on Wednesday evening, he said: Starting from 7am to 11pm, it is necessary to minimise the use of electricity. This applies to residents of ALL regions of the country. If this is not done, you should prepare for temporary shutdowns.” The use of street lighting will be limited in cities and the country needed, he added, to be prepared for “a hard winter”. Ukraine’s national energy company also urged citizens to “charge everything” by 7am (4am GMT) on Thursday with outages of up to four hours at a time expected to affect the whole country. Phones, power banks, torches and batteries need to be charged, grid operator Ukrenergo urged.
and

Tesla Q3 results

EU discussions
and
and

on Russian tankers

Neterlands joins Spain and POland in quitting Energy Charter

CBAMs drive carbon markets, ... India .... your country will get one soon

Big solar, 260GW

Small Arab toe in solar water

Care with codes in USA

Adriatic outlets even before the Brenner base tunnel is here
and