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So for a few mins california did it, all renewables

Legitimate question, and I'm asking not to be debbie downer, but legit want to know "the plan":

When CA hits the point where renewable can generate 100% electricity, all the time, even on cloudy/rainy days . . . then what is the plan for the massive excess we will have on those long summer days? Some can be put into batteries, but those will charge up fast (if my powerwalls on a summer day are any indication - they are FULL by 10 AM, at the latest). Does the excess get sold off for cheap to neighboring states? What if those states are over-producing? Temp shut down some renewable facilities to curb the excess?

I know some think-tank somewhere has thought this through, do we have a white-paper from them listing out specifics?
 
Legitimate question, and I'm asking not to be debbie downer, but legit want to know "the plan":

When CA hits the point where renewable can generate 100% electricity, all the time, even on cloudy/rainy days . . . then what is the plan for the massive excess we will have on those long summer days? Some can be put into batteries, but those will charge up fast (if my powerwalls on a summer day are any indication - they are FULL by 10 AM, at the latest). Does the excess get sold off for cheap to neighboring states? What if those states are over-producing? Temp shut down some renewable facilities to curb the excess?

I know some think-tank somewhere has thought this through, do we have a white-paper from them listing out specifics?
I don't think there's a clear answer yet, however some options (or a mix of the below) are:
  • Large battery storage systems for daily supply management
  • Turn on pumps for pumped hydro
  • Turn on electrolysis for H2/ammonia creation
  • Various new yet unproven at scale technologies (heat molten salt storage, liquid metal batteries, etc)
  • High voltage DC to load shift across continents
 
I don't think there's a clear answer yet, however some options (or a mix of the below) are:
  • Large battery storage systems for daily supply management
  • Turn on pumps for pumped hydro
  • Turn on electrolysis for H2/ammonia creation
  • Various new yet unproven at scale technologies (heat molten salt storage, liquid metal batteries, etc)
  • High voltage DC to load shift across continents
I’d also add that the removal of any fossil fuel use for heating and/or industrial uses will require a huge amount of renewables, above and beyond just electricity needs.
 
WTI $104.7 / bbl
Brent $107.1 / bbl

EU (strictly European Commission) proposes full ban on Russian oil within 6-months
and
and

But not yet agrred by member states
"38m ago13.45
EU representatives have not yet reached an agreement about a proposed embargo against Russian oil, but they are expected to move closer to a deal at a meeting on Thursday, Reuters cites an official familiar with the talks as saying. Envoys from the EU countries had their first discussion about the proposal today, according to the source, who said the meeting ended without a formal backing for the plan. Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria raised concerns about the oil embargo, the source said, noting that a deal could be achieved at a new meeting of envoys tomorrow. Meanwhile, Bulgaria’s deputy prime minister, Assen Vassilev, said his country will seek an exemption if the EU agrees to allow exemptions on any embargo on Russian oil. Vassilev said in an interview with financial newspaper Capital:

Bulgaria, technologically, can do without Russian oil crude, but that would push up fuel prices significantly. So, if the European Commission considers exemptions, we would like to take advantage of such exemptions.

Gazelle floater at 2MW stage

US gov interested in blockers for renewables (NB - read this in full - it is interesting)

So the US solar people wail about wind switching

US-China tense but stable

South Korea may replace China for UK nukes
 
Legitimate question, and I'm asking not to be debbie downer, but legit want to know "the plan":

When CA hits the point where renewable can generate 100% electricity, all the time, even on cloudy/rainy days . . . then what is the plan for the massive excess we will have on those long summer days? Some can be put into batteries, but those will charge up fast (if my powerwalls on a summer day are any indication - they are FULL by 10 AM, at the latest). Does the excess get sold off for cheap to neighboring states? What if those states are over-producing? Temp shut down some renewable facilities to curb the excess?

I know some think-tank somewhere has thought this through, do we have a white-paper from them listing out specifics?
I think excess solar is one of the most fascinating ideas in the world. Almost predictable. Scalable across much of the USA and southern Europe. One only needs to look at all the industries that are energy limited. Smelting, carbon capture, etc. If you do a first order principle look at things it becomes clearer and is frankly simple. I've thought of writing and publishing an essay on this. Tony Seba and his group have thought on it as well.

The thing is that it is far cheaper to overbuild solar, so that renewable production at 5pm meets demand, than to buy batteries. This should result in massive overproduction of energy and we end up in exactly the scenario you described.


Is a perfect example. Moses Lake is a large hydro dam that provides just about the cheapest energy in the USA. Look at the types of facilities locating there, companies involved in Silicon processes. Manipulating Silicone is energy intensive and is such a cost driver that they will locate plants in..pardon my language...Bum F nowhere.

Another will be renewable powered steel smelting like those facilities being built by NUCOR. NUCOR is an animal in the USA steel business.

Fundamentally all these facilities are engaged in exactly the same basic process and they all require energy and lots of it.
 
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Brent $110/bbl
WTI $108/bbl

Europe import stop on Russian oil may be awkward, explainers
or
and

Europe refilling gas storage abnormally fast, JohnKempReuters chartbook

India can't move coal

Russians seem to be burning down army recruitment centres amongst other things

Wind to coral is a thing

Military need fossils

Stop the offset bullsh1t

Miners all talk

Responsible mining : oxymoron ?
 
WTI $107.7/bbl
Brent $110.4/bbl

EU tweaking Russian oil plan
and gas

India has left itself no choice, coal

REviewing the EU elec price review in ever narrowing circles (YMMV)

US middle distillates under pressure, JohnKempReuters chartbook

US SPR buyback plan signalled

US oil capex up, market forces work, shock horror

UK contemplates neutering market forces, Con shock horror

Olsens go interestingly modular for floaters, pay attention

GOM offshore wind acoming pdq

Those hydrogen nodes offshore again

Flexible foundation/tower vessels

No bitcoin mining here, NY

Somehow the idea of a dominant design emerging in DER software seems unlikely to me

Malaysia will go solar, someday far away

Rich people flying soars

Lukashenko's Belarus stinks
 
WTI $109.8/bbl
Brent $112.4/bbl

Funnily enough Hungary still wants Russian nuclear

India gets chummy with French nuclear

South Korea will do (even more) nuclear

340MW is a small nuke

Indian coal iffy

Japan to ban Russian oil

US SPR release was solo venture

California dreamin

Rolling US towers

Covid = 15m excess deaths (I think that is similar to Spanish flu, mind you the world had a far lower population then)
 
WTI $102
Brent $105

Russia wants nuclear payback from Finland

EU wants Russia oil & gas blockade deal, HUngary not co-operating quelle surprise

1.5C going going going .......

Aviation sector missing every target

Battery trains

Germany - Quatar - LNG haggling

China builds its own

Green hydrogen bug infects China also

Venezuela, don't hold your breath is my advice

Nordstream2 tidying up

Fringe benefits

Carbon markets ...... money money money

Don't expect UK-EU relations to play nicely
 
  • Informative
Reactions: navguy12
WTI $104/bbl
Brent $106/bbl

Ukraine gas company declares force majeure on one transport route (the southern one) Gazprom says can't divert to northern one. As far as I can tell the Sokhranivka route goes through a metering station at the southern node, whilst the northern route crosses near Kursk.

1652270706025.png


1652270962259.png


various reports



Likely Russia will refuse to switch volumes to Kursk route (due to the "technical reasons") and hence start to reduce volumes to EU destinations. So the German plans may get used


Finland parliament greenlights NATO

meanwhile US probes the solar probe

and California things 20GW by 2050 is quite a lot

and Indian rail struggling on coal

oh, and Musk gave quite a substantial interview

and miners seek love

but Coldplay useful idiots
 
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WTI $104.4/bbl
Brent $106.1/bbl

Lots of mild recession warnings out around the world, always difficult to distinguish between slowdown and technical recessions - but this is what demand destruction looks like





Surprise, far right media types are climate change deniers

Surprise, fossil companies aim to carry on doing same old

Yesterday I commented that California thinks that 20GW by 2050 is trying hard

In contrast Norways aims for 30GW by 2040

But California batteries are on track

Wind offshore Iberia

Nearshore goes offshore

1GW chunks all the rage

Refined inventory patchy supply all over the place, one example

Coal finds new disguise

Idaho battery is go

Many paths for battery deployment

Actual hydrogen use - funnily enough the combustion pathway
 
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WTI $110
Brent $111

Another day, another Japanese floater

.... and Korea, fixed I think these

Italy offshore almost running

South Africa making steadyish progress

The 15MW units are getting closer

Siemens now out of Russia (and their share prices may attract bottom fishers with risk appetite)

Carbon Direct Air Capture seminar (if you qualify, MIT alum only, but they do give waivers sometimes)

Interesting metal recovery options

Fusion ...........

Battery strategy waffle (EDIT, not just waffle, some nuggets in here)
 
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WTI $108.4/bbl
Brent $109.2/bbl

Hungary blocking EU, still

EU flavours
and

EU filling up

EU economies hit by high energy costs

UK vehicle fuels

This energy island thing

Meaningless puffery from the Boris one

South Africa brownouts and blackouts

Texas bakes

China digs in

US turnover

and Finland and Sweden both confirm for NATO
 
WTI $115
Brent $115

[*** missing item, Hungary still blocking EU oil embargo ***]

Ukraine wants western nukes in western Ukraine
1652789746026.png



I think everybody is going to die of boredom waiting for SMRs to do the paperchase
+

Hope for South Africa

nukes in orbit by 2026

Chinese have a different way of doing (coal) pricing

Iraq worried about Chinese

UK in smallbeer nuke fund

Australian elections, hot downunder

Prosumers have the answer ?

UK bigs up talk in floaters

MIT report on storage (I've not read it yet, so no opinion)

Libya still all effed up
 
WTI $114.3
Brent $113.4

NATO applications submitted

ENI (Italy) to pay Russia in roubles

Yellen chips in on EU-Russia sanctions (rumours are for an agreement today, heard that before though)

That sucking sound is gas flowing to Europe

Orban proves he is far right (which is obviously having energy consequences in EU)

UK upsetting EU over NI (again, energy consequences may flow)

Steadying the grid

Perovskites for hydrogen

Patents for hydrogen

Verly long cables

This one is too long for a cable

Zinc Alkaline storage

I wonder why this might be

Grids, grids, grids

Lagacy auto is er lagging
 
WTI $107.7
Brent $107.9

Schroder not wanted
or

Bread, circuses, and energy subsidies going global

150GW offshore by 2050 in only 4 EU countries (yay !)

RWE all in on Poland (and Poland all in on wind ....)

Sweden too for floaters

Siemens considers deeper wind stake

Plugpower gets the gas order

Grids in trouble, India

Grids in trouble, USA

Grids for poor people

EDIT
Expect Montreux kerfuffles to start arising, which might also impact Russian tanker traffic
 
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WTI $109.9
Brent $112.4
High prices will continue until demand IS destroyed !

....proof is in JohnKempReuters distillates chartbook

and it is having an effect

"Russia’s state-owned oil company, Rosneft, said Germany’s former chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder, and businessman, Matthias Warnig, had informed it they could not continue serving on the board of directors.It comes after the European Parliament urged that Schroeder be blacklisted if he did not step down from the board of Rosneft, Reuters reports.Schroeder, who served as German chancellor from 1998 to 2005, has come under intense public criticism for retaining his lucrative board position with Rosneft, which he had held since 2017.In a statement, Rosneft said it was “sympathetic” to the decision by Schroeder and Warnig and thanked them for their “continued support”."

"Russia to cut gas supplies to Finland on Saturday, says gas firm
Russia will stop gas flows to neighbouring Finland on Saturday morning, Finnish state-owned gas wholesaler Gasum said in a statement. The company has refused to pay Gazprom Export in roubles as Russia has requested European countries to do."

Germany getting ready

Interesting Sino-US talking sideways
or

Petrobras starts to pivot

Ammonia/hydrogen included in RePowerEU
(from this....

UK wants a slice of hydrogen pie

Bhutan powers up

Orban showing the nasty way

China not acting

Hot isn't it

Covid was problematic
still is