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March will be very interesting in Germany, then. I would expect the P85D to be disproportionally more popular there than here in Norway. Here, you will always have people buying the S85 instead of Passats and similar cars, as their lifetime costs are similar.
Very possible.
Though judging by the delivery estimates thread on the Norwegian electric car forum, it doesn't seem like the deliveries will drop off that much in April or May... In the Q4 report, Tesla said that the number of cars in the pipelines would increase in Q1, so we may see Tesla starting to even out some of these massive fluctuations.
Checked the delivery estimates thread - registered scheduled deliveries:
March: 23 P85D, 19 S85D, 0 S85/S60 Total: 42
April: 4 P85D, 18 S85D, 0 S85/S60 Total: 22
May: 17 S85D, 0 P85D/S85/S60 Total: 17
(Can you tell AWD is popular in Norway?)
Thanks for the update.
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But it is a valid concern over Europe demand. We hope not only Norway, but also steady demand from all European countries especially Germany.
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But it is a valid concern over Europe demand. We hope not only Norway, but also steady demand from all European countries especially Germany.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
I think March will be very interesting. Elon claimed over a year ago that Germany would be a big market and was very important to Tesla. So far the numbers for Germany have been quite low (and the whys have been discussed at length). So to me it will be extremely interesting to see if the P85D helps deal with some of the issues. Better seats, better top speed, allegedly better overall handling at high speed, plus all the safety / convenience features added in the last six months... one would assume that this would result in a noticeable bump in German sales... clearly not in February, but hopefully in March and then overall in Q2 and later?
Does anyone have a good source for Tesla sales/registrations in Italy?
It seems like Green start has stopped updating their market section and UNRAE - Unione Nazionale Rappresentanti Autoveicoli Esteri still lumps Tesla into the other category from what I can find.
It seems like Green start has stopped updating their market section and UNRAE - Unione Nazionale Rappresentanti Autoveicoli Esteri still lumps Tesla into the other category from what I can find.
Germany will not pick up until Tesla is competetive. Which they sadly are a long way from being.
1. Fleet sales are a very big part of the german high end market and it usually requires volume discounts. If you don't do volume discounts you don't sell any cars. Period.
2. Options and feature list still have a very long way to go until it catches up with even mid class bmw (5-series) or mercedes (e-class).
3. Same goes for exterior fit and finish as well as interior comfort.
I think they need to be fully on par with the german brands inat least 2 out of the 3 points above before sales start to pick up. For germany to become big market, all 3 are needed.
Aren't most EU deliveries in Q1 coming from orders placed BEFORE the mid-november 4.5% price increase due to EUR/USD, followed by another 4.5% late Jan or so.
And with the EUR still dropping (-21% since Spring-14), another increase is likely to happen again and all this could seriously impact EU sales -and deliveries in Q2 & Q3-?
And with the EUR still dropping (-21% since Spring-14), another increase is likely to happen again and all this could seriously impact EU sales -and deliveries in Q2 & Q3-?
I suspect the EU demand did increase before price adjustment and because of new D model release. But I doubt it'll continue the momentum in Q1&Q2. In Q3, with X deliver, the demand could increase again.
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Without Germany/France demand ramp up, it's risky to rely on Norway to contribute more than half of the Europe sales.
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Without Germany/France demand ramp up, it's risky to rely on Norway to contribute more than half of the Europe sales.
Lots of demand was pulled forward due to pending price increases, so many on the fence have ordered one even they wanted it delivered in latter part of the year.
From what i hear is that German demand will pick up this year, could sell as much as 1500 cars, however margins may suffer as many of those are fleet sales (fleet leasing to be precise) and i think Tesla is coming forward to customers regarding the cost of lease. Many utility companies are getting those for execs, i personally know one that ordered 3 cars for 36 month lease. The leasing runs through Tesla own leasing company so the revenues are not recognized on non-gaap upon delivery.
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Lots of demand was pulled forward due to pending price increases, so many on the fence have ordered one even they wanted it delivered in latter part of the year.
From what i hear is that German demand will pick up this year, could sell as much as 1500 cars, however margins may suffer as many of those are fleet sales (fleet leasing to be precise) and i think Tesla is coming forward to customers regarding the cost of lease. Many utility companies are getting those for execs, i personally know one that ordered 3 cars for 36 month lease. The leasing runs through Tesla own leasing company so the revenues are not recognized on non-gaap upon delivery.
Gerasimental
Member
Not really reflective of current UK demand, and certainly not yet reflective of the effect of the recent reviews, but feb registrations for UK are out.
'Other Imports', which includes Tesla (and Lambo, Ferrari, Pagani etc) is at 34 for Feb '15, compared to 9 for Feb '14 and 186 YTD '15 compared to 63 YTD '14.
I guess it's a positive sign, but there's a lot of noise in that. Been seeing LOTS of MS in London though.
Quick question: any idea if we are looking at the same shipment schedule for RHD cars are we are for mainland Europe? i.e. expect deliveries start to skyrocket in March as ships land. Are the RHD and LHD vehicles shipped together?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
The latest is the Ds don't start arriving to RHD markets til Sept or least in significant numbers.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
It is my understanding that the UK cars are coming on the same boats as the other EU cars.
But part of why people are expecting a bump in some markets is that the P85D (and S85D) will start arriving. But as Rob Stark pointed out, that won't happen for RHD cars until Q4 (or "September", as Tesla calls it)
Some UK P85D's were due in April/June, but I know of at least one guy that's seen that pushed back to August, with a letter from TM suggesting a production issue for RHD dual motor cars 
We have a "plate change" (i.e. the licence plate shows you how old the car is) here in September , and it effects resale. So anyone holding an August reservation would be sorely tempted to hold off until 1st September before taking delivery.
I'd imagine people wanting top spec cars will just wait for the D versions, and as that's a fair proportion of owners, we might see a drop here in new cars until then, followed by a spike in September.
The final 2014 results historically come out in early April, so we still don't have concrete figures yet for last year. (And actually won't be able to see if my prediction for this year is true until Q3/15 figures come out, which won't be until Jan 2016)
We have a "plate change" (i.e. the licence plate shows you how old the car is) here in September , and it effects resale. So anyone holding an August reservation would be sorely tempted to hold off until 1st September before taking delivery.
I'd imagine people wanting top spec cars will just wait for the D versions, and as that's a fair proportion of owners, we might see a drop here in new cars until then, followed by a spike in September.
The final 2014 results historically come out in early April, so we still don't have concrete figures yet for last year. (And actually won't be able to see if my prediction for this year is true until Q3/15 figures come out, which won't be until Jan 2016)
Did Norway take 50% + of sales or did Tesla prioritize sales to Norway? Two very different things.
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