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EU Market Situation and Outlook

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The big question is if Tesla is giving discounts to fleets? Because MB,BMW,and Audi do give big discounts.

You can justify it by saying you can give a discount and maintain margins because you are spending less in logistics and Tesla employee time selling to fleets.

Remember the UK government considered fleet purchase of Model S but refused on principle when it could not get a discount from retail.

Discounts may be an option in Government fleets, but they are not in Australia for some business fleets.

There are many different ways these fleets are set up and run. As running the fleets adds cost to business (administration etc), fleet managers can reduce their workload by letting employees-drivers do all the legwork in setting up a lease, within given constraints. Often employees can find their own car for lease and negotiate the price, fleet manager just stamps it. Lease costs are passed to employees so they bear the lease cost and they are the cost sensitive party, employer not so much. There are restrictions on models and costs, to stop people from going wild. The whole scheme is just a tax reduction tool.
 
Yes I'm sure, and no, the number he gave was for Model S in March 2015, but the two numbers I quoted was for total EVs.

Just to make it clear: (updated numbers)
March 2015:
Model S: 1017
EVs total: 3305

Total ever:
Model S: 7460 (this number includes 18 cars with double registrations - or some of the doubles might been Roadsters? Forgot to check that out...)
EVs total: 48835 (this is the number that was at that time about 1000 cars lower then official stated by NRK, and include 91 cars (of witch 18 is Tesla's) with double registrations and one with triple)

The 10,000th Tesla Model S delivery in Norway will (very likely) be in 2015.
 
Thanks for clarifying. Now it all makes sense.

Yes I'm sure, and no, the number he gave was for Model S in March 2015, but the two numbers I quoted was for total EVs.

Just to make it clear: (updated numbers)
March 2015:
Model S: 1017
EVs total: 3305

Total ever:
Model S: 7460 (this number includes 18 cars with double registrations - or some of the doubles might been Roadsters? Forgot to check that out...)
EVs total: 48835 (this is the number that was at that time about 1000 cars lower then official stated by NRK, and include 91 cars (of witch 18 is Tesla's) with double registrations and one with triple)
 
There's been a broad agreement across all parties to not change the EV incentives until there are 50k zero emission vehicles on the road or 2017 arrives. We'll reach 50k zero emission vehicles this month or possibly next month.

As a result, the sitting parties have launched an extensive review of the EV incentives and in fact the entire current car tax system. They will be looking at what works, what doesn't, and come up with a policy for the next few years. This is a process that is ongoing as we speak, and the results are scheduled to be announced in May. And then, changes to the current system will probably not come into effect until 1. january 2016.

Now, what they will actually conclude is anyones guess. You have four parties who will all want to have their say:

The Progress Party - Basically christian conservatives with a strong populist streak. They are against taxes, and pro-individual freedom. They've for instance legalized the Segway. I would say they are conflicted by loving that there are no taxes on EVs, but hating that the lower taxes for EVs cause other cars to be taxed harder. Also, they don't believe in anthropocentric climate change, though they do concede that NOX, SOX and particulate emissions should be avoided.
The Conservative Party - Old-school conservatives (though not extreme). In my opinion they are trying to be viewed as a responsible adult that you can trust. They want to save the environment, and their Environment and Climate minister has promised a 40% cut in carbon emissions by 2030. They also want to be fiscally responsible.
The Christian Democratic Party - Basically feel-good christians. They are for helping refugees, old people, children, as well as saving the environment and the world.
the Liberal Party - Basically pro-(small) business and pro-environment. They are the most vocal supporter of the EV incentives.

The way the dynamic works, is that the Progress Party and the Conservative Party are in a minority government, and are completely dependant on the support of the Christian Democratic Party and the Liberal Party. The support of just one of these parties is sufficient to get policy through the parliament, but there is an agreement of cooperation between the four parties, and the Christian Democratic Party and the Liberal Party have worked together in standing up to the minority government.

How this works in relation to the EV incentive review: The Progress Party and the Conservative Party will be trying to cut down on their least favourite incentives (access to bus lanes is probably first on the chopping block) and they will probably also try to cut taxes. The Progress Party will also be trying to make the car tax system as favourable to the cars their core voters buy (mostly reasonably priced family cars). On the other hand you will have the Liberal Party, hopefully with the support of the Christian Democratic Party, trying to keep as much of the incentives for as long as possible.

Personally, I think the most important incentives (exemption from 25% VAT and exemption from additional car taxes) will last a few more years, with a gradual phase-out over a few years. Maybe in 2020 the incentives will be gone.
The tax policy spokesperson for the Progress Party has now publicly gone out and said that the VAT exemption will remain in place at least until 2017. So, expect at least two more years of high Tesla sales in Norway. :)
 
The tax policy spokesperso for the Progress Party has now publicly gone out and said that the VAT exemption will remain in place at least until 2017. So, expect at least two more years of high Tesla sales in Norway. :)
Actually it says VAT exemption will last through 2017, until 2018. This could mean people can buy their Model 3 without tax :) very good news. Sales of Model 3 will be off the charts if it comes on sale in 2017!​
 
Actually it says VAT exemption will last through 2017, until 2018. This could mean people can buy their Model 3 without tax :) very good news. Sales of Model 3 will be off the charts if it comes on sale in 2017!​
Right. Important distinction. And yes, we can expect Model 3 sales to be nuts in 2017. The new Nissan Leaf, the Chevy Bolt (if available) and any other 200 mile range competitors will also have insane sales.

2017: First year in Norway with a greater than 50% market share for EVs?
 
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To just add my own thoughts to this thread about what is holding Tesla back in Europe (and Denmark specifically).

This first issue is the sheer size of the Model S. With it's mirrors extended the car stands at 219 cm's in width (86,2"). This is gigantic in Europe and a real problem from time to time. It does not make the car undriveable here but it does complicate matters a lot. In Denmark a BMW 3 series is seen as a very large car and it is like a super-mini compared to the Model S.

In Denmark a nicely equipped Model S would set you back around $102k, this puts the Model S squarely in the same territory as a new BMW 520D. So the car is already a in niche-market on price alone. Hardly anybody in this country can afford to buy a $102k car with great family cars costing somewhere between $36k (Skoda Octavia) and $61k (Ford Mondeo).

To further add insult to injury our prices for electricity are way higher than in the US. We pay somewhere around $0.30 pr kWh. This makes the Tesla much more expensive to run. I compared the running costs of Model S to a 320D here in this country and the yearly savings on "fuel" was around $850. So fuel costs really do not factor into the equation when you consider a Model S. This was with 20% of the power coming from the SC's. If all power had to come from the wall then the Tesla would have been more expensive than a 320D.

And we also have a "range issue". Simply put: We drive a lot faster than in the US and that puts a serious dent in the range. Most of our highway system has a limit of 80 mph with a more realistic cruising speed of around 85. At that speed the Tesla's range will drop rapidly. The thing that really saves the Model S here is that many of our distances are smaller than in the US.

Another problem is the lack of a trade-in system. Most families are 1 car families here and that means that selling your old car before/after the Model S gets to you is a huge hassle. Traditionally you take your used car to a dealer as a trade-in. If Tesla had a system to do trade-ins it would help a lot.

The biggest advantage Tesla has in my particular country is one they don't talk about much: The Service centers. Our car-dealers will nickel and dime you on service and repairs. Tesla needs to shout about their "one price - everything included" from the rooftops. This could really sway a lot of buyers much faster than anything else. Especially since we tend to keep our cars a lot longer. 10-15 year old cars is the norm here.

So to sum up what's limiting adoption in Denmark:

1. Size - it's way too big for most people. As a friend said (quoting top gear): "It's like a really long walk around it".
2. Price - Firmly in the luxury market
3. Cost of electricity.

But on a positive note: Inevitably when the discussion turns to cars among our circle of friends there is only one car they dream about and that is an electric Tesla. The Model S is seen as a dream car right up there with Aston Martins and Ferraris.

/Michael

PS. English is not my native language so please bear with any mistakes on my part.
 
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Right. Important distinction. And yes, we can expect Model 3 sales to be nuts in 2017. The new Nissan Leaf, the Chevy Bolt (if available) and any other 200 mile range competitors will also have insane sales.

2017: First year in Norway with a greater than 50% market share for EVs?

Not unlikely. But Model 3 needs to come online 2017, if not huge setback if VAT added in 2018.

I think loads of people will want to buy a Model 3. Model S already rated the "future" and "awesome" car.

Most people I talk to want one. And already two Model S owners in my extended family. Huge hype and a talking point in every family get together.
 
Not unlikely. But Model 3 needs to come online 2017, if not huge setback if VAT added in 2018.

I think loads of people will want to buy a Model 3. Model S already rated the "future" and "awesome" car.

Most people I talk to want one. And already two Model S owners in my extended family. Huge hype and a talking point in every family get together.

Given Model 3 debut in USA during 2nd half of 2017 won't reach Norway til Q1 2018. Even if VAT added it will likely be 10% in 2018 correct?

The full 25% VAT will not come til later.

And comparable ICEv will still have punitive taxes. By which I mean compacts with ~220 hp not subcompacts with less than 150 hp.
 
Given Model 3 debut in USA during 2nd half of 2017 won't reach Norway til Q1 2018. Even if VAT added it will likely be 10% in 2018 correct?

The full 25% VAT will not come til later.

And comparable ICEv will still have punitive taxes. By which I mean compacts with ~220 hp not subcompacts with less than 150 hp.

Yeah. Probably right assumption. Given 2018 is first year of VAT, it will not reach 25% until a few years later. Model 3 obviously will be success anyhow. Just the scale of it that might vary.
 
To just add my own thoughts to this thread about what is holding Tesla back in Europe (and Denmark specifically).

This first issue is the sheer size of the Model S. With it's mirrors extended the car stands at 219 cm's in width (86,2"). This is gigantic in Europe and a real problem from time to time. It does not make the car undriveable here but it does complicate matters a lot. In Denmark a BMW 3 series is seen as a very large car and it is like a super-mini compared to the Model S.

In Denmark a nicely equipped Model S would set you back around $102k, this puts the Model S squarely in the same territory as a new BMW 520D. So the car is already a in niche-market on price alone. Hardly anybody in this country can afford to buy a $102k car with great family cars costing somewhere between $36k (Skoda Octavia) and $61k (Ford Mondeo).

To further add insult to injury our prices for electricity are way higher than in the US. We pay somewhere around $0.30 pr kWh. This makes the Tesla much more expensive to run. I compared the running costs of Model S to a 320D here in this country and the yearly savings on "fuel" was around $850. So fuel costs really do not factor into the equation when you consider a Model S. This was with 20% of the power coming from the SC's. If all power had to come from the wall then the Tesla would have been more expensive than a 320D.

And we also have a "range issue". Simply put: We drive a lot faster than in the US and that puts a serious dent in the range. Most of our highway system has a limit of 80 mph with a more realistic cruising speed of around 85. At that speed the Tesla's range will drop rapidly. The thing that really saves the Model S here is that many of our distances are smaller than in the US.

Another problem is the lack of a trade-in system. Most families are 1 car families here and that means that selling your old car before/after the Model S gets to you is a huge hassle. Traditionally you take your used car to a dealer as a trade-in. If Tesla had a system to do trade-ins it would help a lot.

The biggest advantage Tesla has in my particular country is one they don't talk about much: The Service centers. Our car-dealers will nickel and dime you on service and repairs. Tesla needs to shout about their "one price - everything included" from the rooftops. This could really sway a lot of buyers much faster than anything else. Especially since we tend to keep our cars a lot longer. 10-15 year old cars is the norm here.

So to sum up what's limiting adoption in Denmark:

1. Size - it's way too big for most people. As a friend said (quoting top gear): "It's like a really long walk around it".
2. Price - Firmly in the luxury market
3. Cost of electricity.

But on a positive note: Inevitably when the discussion turns to cars among our circle of friends there is only one car they dream about and that is an electric Tesla. The Model S is seen as a dream car right up there with Aston Martins and Ferraris.

/Michael

PS. English is not my native language so please bear with any mistakes on my part.

Model S is not comparable to a 320D much less a Mondeo or Octavia. More money but more car.

Petrol in Los Angeles is 0.73 euro/liter. My base electricity rate is $.13 per kWh. More expensive electricity in Europe but also more expensive petrol.

Flow of traffic in California outside of rush hour is 75 MPH even though speed limit is 65.

The average age of the US auto fleet is 12 years old.

Way too big? Model 3 is coming. So it will only be somewhat big.
 
I don't think that the size of the Model S is a problem for the UK. Range Rovers, BMW X5, Audi Q7, Porsche Cayenne, and other 4x4's are a common sight here. I would estimate that 20% of the cars on the road are either around the same size as a Model S, or bigger. It really doesn't seem that big to me, or to the rest of the UK public I imagine.
 
Model S is not comparable to a 320D much less a Mondeo or Octavia. More money but more car.

Petrol in Los Angeles is 0.73 euro/liter. My base electricity rate is $.13 per kWh. More expensive electricity in Europe but also more expensive petrol.

Flow of traffic in California outside of rush hour is 75 MPH even though speed limit is 65.

The average age of the US auto fleet is 12 years old.

Way too big? Model 3 is coming. So it will only be somewhat big.


While you are correct that a Model S is not comparable directly to a 3 series or a Mondeo. Nevertheless the market that Tesla finds themselves in are dominated by cars that are more affordable by a wide margin. Even if the comparison is not really fair, but it is the only Tesla available right now. So Tesla is loosing out on 90% of the market right now, this will hopefully change in 2017-2020 when the Model 3 comes out.

At the moment diesel prices have dropped to about $1.28 pr liter. This really hurts the cost-saving aspect of the Model S when compared to most family cars here.

Another fact I forgot to mention is that the strong $ vs the euro makes the car way more expensive over here.

Specifically for Denmark the Model S is tax-exempt until 31.12.2015 after that a base S85 will cost somewhere around $215.000 at which point all sales will stop forever.