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EU Market Situation and Outlook

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PIEUROPEFEB2015% MS'14 PI
1Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV1,1843,169181
2Volkswagen e-Golf9752,053119
3Nissan LEAF7401,749102
4Renault Zoe9791,69593
5Volkswagen Golf GTE5271,560922
6Tesla Model S5771,13964
7BMW i36021,11865
8Volvo V60 Plug-In37785257
9Audi A3 e-Tron572814519
10Volkswagen e-Up!23850736
11Smart Fortwo ED156466310
12Porsche Cayenne Plug-In156393228
13Renault Kangoo ZE20033028
14BMW i8128310215
15Kia Soul EV78302223
16Renault Twizy136263111
17Nissan e-NV200113211112
18Bolloré Blue Car59179113
19Peugeot iOn66143121
20Mitsubishi I-Miev39141117

TOTAL8,17617,940

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2015/03/europe-february-2015.html#comment-form
 
Norway now at 776 for March.

Is this as of the end of March 25 or March 24? As of the end of March 23, Norway had 693 cars registered.

Last year in 2014, this is how it looked (source):

March 24 (Monday) - 898 cars
March 25 (Tuesday) - 1075 cars (177 cars since March 24)
March 26 (Wednesday) - 1248 cars (173 cars since March 25)
...
March 29 (Saturday) - 1468 cars (73.3 car per day average since March 26)
...
March 31 (Monday)- 1493 cars (12.5 cars per day average since March 29)
 
Also, one interesting element is that there is a significant number of deliveries scheduled for April/May. As I described here: EU Market Situation and Outlook - Page 73

Assuming the same ratio of people who have reported their scheduled delivery to actual deliveries holds true for April/May, and we have 1200 delivereies in March, the figures for the next couple of months should be:

April 2015: 628
May 2015: 485

That would be an extremely good start for a killer Q2.

(Now, I haven't checked the delivery thread for changes to the delivery estimates. Some may have been moved up or back. And the ratio of 42/1200 may or may not be completely valid.)

- - - Updated - - -

Whoa, are those only P85D or did S85D deliveries in Norway start in March?
Both P85D and S85D are being delivered.
 
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The count is now at 920. And still going strong. I think we'll end up in the 1100-1200 area. :)

Starting to feel like they are looking to take out last year's record of 1493. Remember that was a record for deliveries in Notway of any car in a month seemingly as far back as anyone found records. Averaging 115/day these next 5 days would clear last year's number.

While Tesla generally delivers based on what makes sense re today's logistics such data likely would be more effective than a tweet at exposing the lack of evidence in all the "demand problem" FUD. Elon has said superlatives get the public's attention.

...and THANKS! for posting this data!
 
It's certainly not outside the realm of possibility, but my guess is that the record will remain unbroken. You have to remember that it's a couple of days between when a car is registered and when it is delivered, so a car registered on monday afternoon will be delivered in Q2.

Of course, Tesla could be happy with a higher inventory on hand if it means breaking the record from last year, but I have my doubts.
 
It's certainly not outside the realm of possibility, but my guess is that the record will remain unbroken. You have to remember that it's a couple of days between when a car is registered and when it is delivered, so a car registered on monday afternoon will be delivered in Q2.

Of course, Tesla could be happy with a higher inventory on hand if it means breaking the record from last year, but I have my doubts.

I was just looking at 32no's post #923 here. The headline making news last year looks like it was based on registrations. So, if that is the case, an apple's to apple's beat would mean averaging 115/day the next 5 days (granted, there's a Sunday in there but recently they are doing close to 200/day). I'm thinking about the headline in terms of revealing the lack of substance in various FUD articles jumping over month-month delivery in country x,y,z (often just guesses to boot).

As to helping Tesla with the quarter, indeed, registration is not necessarily delivery. Pretty sure for Tesla delivery equals receipt of payment... do you know if that happens at the time of registration in Norway?
 
It's certainly not outside the realm of possibility, but my guess is that the record will remain unbroken. You have to remember that it's a couple of days between when a car is registered and when it is delivered, so a car registered on monday afternoon will be delivered in Q2.

Of course, Tesla could be happy with a higher inventory on hand if it means breaking the record from last year, but I have my doubts.

Is registration possible in weekend?
If not, was today the last day to count for Q1 or Monday? Thanks!
 
I'm pretty sure most car dealership got access directly to our DMV equivalent's database and can register whenever they want to. Tesla Norway also has access. Registration is usually done 1-2 workdays before delivery. But considering the rush they might even register to be able to hand out cars on this Sunday for all I know.

Cobos
 
As to helping Tesla with the quarter, indeed, registration is not necessarily delivery. Pretty sure for Tesla delivery equals receipt of payment... do you know if that happens at the time of registration in Norway?
I believe payment happens around delivery (which is a couple of days after registration), but depends a bit on payment method. From what I can gather you can either have paid the amount due before picking up the car, or you can bring all the relevant paperwork and sort it out there, naturally with some processing time before the money is actually transferred.
 
Also, one interesting element is that there is a significant number of deliveries scheduled for April/May. As I described here: EU Market Situation and Outlook - Page 73

Assuming the same ratio of people who have reported their scheduled delivery to actual deliveries holds true for April/May, and we have 1200 delivereies in March, the figures for the next couple of months should be:

April 2015: 628
May 2015: 485

That would be an extremely good start for a killer Q2.

(Now, I haven't checked the delivery thread for changes to the delivery estimates. Some may have been moved up or back. And the ratio of 42/1200 may or may not be completely valid.)
I checked the delivery estimates thread and I have some updated figures. First let me just quote the reported scheduled deliveries from the 5th of March:
March: 23 P85D, 19 S85D, 0 S85/S60 Total: 42
April: 4 P85D, 18 S85D, 0 S85/S60 Total: 22
May: 17 S85D, 0 P85D/S85/S60 Total: 17

Now, the current reported scheduled deliveries are as follows:

March: 25 P85D, 22 S85D, 0 S85/S60 Total: 47
April: 3 P85D, 14 S85D, 0 S85/S60 Total: 17
May: 23 S85D, 0 P85D/S85/S60 Total: 23
June: 1 P85D, 5 S85D, 0 S85/S60 Total: 6

So, it seems that some of the deliveries scheduled for April at the beginning of the month were actually moved to March. But if the ratio of people who have reported their scheduled delivery to actual deliveries holds true for April/May, and we have 1200 deliveries in March, we can at the moment expect delivery figures to develop like this:

March: 1200
April: 343
May: 587
June: 153 (Any Model S ordered today will be delivered in June, so it stands to reason that this number will increase over the coming weeks.)
 
Yggdrasill, thank you for your work, which is very important contribution to this forum!

Seconded!
However, I have a gnawing thought that quarters sometimes end on weekends, so today might be the last day for registration in Q1. That may explain why only 11 weeks production was counted. On the other hand, Elon's tweet about being cash flow positive Q1-2013 came on April 1, which was ... let's see ... oh, a Monday. So, in conclusion, I'm inconclusive! :rolleyes:

EDIT: According to FredTMC Tesla uses calendar quarters. Phew! More days for a beat! :smile:
 
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