Still playing with data, decided to add a seasonal term. The experience of 2019 is really bucking the trend likely for reasons @Doggydogworld has outlined. Thanks!
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EV Market Share
- Thread starter jhm
- Start date
We'll see. My aim as a statistician is to build models simple enough that one can tell where they go wrong.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Interesting infographic to outline the 2020-2025 EV market forecast from Visual Capitalist.
elements.visualcapitalist.com
Electric Car Companies: Visualizing the Race for EV Dominance
Tesla was the first automaker to hit a $1 trillion market cap, but other electric car companies have plans to unseat the dominant EV maker.
elements.visualcapitalist.com
| Company | Sales 2020 | Sales 2025 (projections) | Market cap (Oct '21, USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla | 499,000 | 2.8M | $1.023T |
| Volkswagen Group | 230,000 | 1.5M | $170B |
| BYD | 136,000 | 377,000 | $113B |
| SGMW (GM, Wulling Motors, SAIC) | 211,000 | 1.1M | $89B |
| BMW | 48,000 | 455,000 | $67B |
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz) | 55,000 | 483,000 | $103B |
| Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi | 191,000 | 606,000 | $39B |
| Geely | 40,000 | 382,000 | $34B |
| Hyundai -Kia | 145,000 | 750,000 | $112B |
| Stellantis | 82,000 | 931,000 | $63B |
| Toyota | 11,000 | 382,000 | $240B |
| Ford | 1,400 | 282,000 | $63B |
mspohr
Well-Known Member
"EVs Could Outsell Gas Cars by 2040"Interesting infographic to outline the 2020-2025 EV market forecast from Visual Capitalist.
Electric Car Companies: Visualizing the Race for EV Dominance
Tesla was the first automaker to hit a $1 trillion market cap, but other electric car companies have plans to unseat the dominant EV maker.
Company Sales 2020 Sales 2025 (projections) Market cap (Oct '21, USD) Tesla 499,000 2.8M $1.023T Volkswagen Group 230,000 1.5M $170B BYD 136,000 377,000 $113B SGMW (GM, Wulling Motors, SAIC) 211,000 1.1M $89B BMW 48,000 455,000 $67B Daimler (Mercedes-Benz) 55,000 483,000 $103B Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi 191,000 606,000 $39B Geely 40,000 382,000 $34B Hyundai -Kia 145,000 750,000 $112B Stellantis 82,000 931,000 $63B Toyota 11,000 382,000 $240B Ford 1,400 282,000 $63B
Another clueless "analyst". (probably off by 10-15 years)
RobStark
Well-Known Member
"EVs Could Outsell Gas Cars by 2040"
Another clueless "analyst". (probably off by 10-15 years)
BEVs aren't outselling ICEv globally in 2025.
2030 would be extremely optimistic. It would be optimistic if you just included China, EU and USA.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Teslarati: Tesla exec explains where ‘real competition’ is coming from, and why the battle is far from over. Tesla exec explains where ‘real competition’ is coming from, and why the battle is far from over
Viecha noted in a Twitter post that he had been asked about Tesla’s competitors practically daily for the past five years. But despite the prevalence of the idea that new EV makers are competing with Tesla to gain a bigger share of the electric vehicle segment, the Head of Investor Relations noted that ultimately, the discussion should not even be about the EV market. Instead, it has to be about the fact that even this year, well over 90% of vehicles that are sold would be equipped with the internal combustion engine. “For the past 5 years, I’ve been asked some version of “and what about all the competitors” pretty much daily. Well over 90% of cars sold *this year* will be ICEs. It’s the ICEs that lose share to *all* competitive EVs. It’s surprising that this is still not an established view,” Viecha wrote.
Viecha noted in a Twitter post that he had been asked about Tesla’s competitors practically daily for the past five years. But despite the prevalence of the idea that new EV makers are competing with Tesla to gain a bigger share of the electric vehicle segment, the Head of Investor Relations noted that ultimately, the discussion should not even be about the EV market. Instead, it has to be about the fact that even this year, well over 90% of vehicles that are sold would be equipped with the internal combustion engine. “For the past 5 years, I’ve been asked some version of “and what about all the competitors” pretty much daily. Well over 90% of cars sold *this year* will be ICEs. It’s the ICEs that lose share to *all* competitive EVs. It’s surprising that this is still not an established view,” Viecha wrote.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I'm confused, are they doubling from today, or is the two year target doubling from what the target was?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
According to post 545 upthread on this page the target was 282k in 2025.
New target is a run rate of 600k BEVs by December 2023.
This is before their new battery GF and new electric vehicle factories open.
Which suggest 2nd and possible 3rd shift for Mach-e.
And new production line for Lightning somewhere.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Ford (incl Lincoln) has to sell ~200k/year EVs in Europe by then to meet 95g. I figure most will be MEBs built in Europe, plus continued Mach E sales.
They sell enough vehicles in China that I guess they'll need ~100k/year there by then. Maybe more if they pursue the Mini segment.
So a 300k/year run rate in North America two years from now? That's ambitious. I don't see 100k+ Mach Es without much lower pricing. Lincoln models are very low volume. That leaves Lightning. I strongly suspect fleet orders. Those guys buy on TCO, and many value the green PR. They also do enough volume to convince Ford to integrate Lightning into the main production lines instead of assembling them in the side factory.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Meanwhile, GM appears to be going nowhere.
GM promised 20 new EVs by 2023. They brought zero to the LA Auto Show
GM said it would release 20 new EVs by 2023. How's that going? If GM's LA Auto Show booth is any indication, not very well.
electrek.co
"In October 2017, GM announced that it would release 20 new EVs by 2023 – just over five years from then, and just over one year from now. How’s that going? If GM’s booth at the LA Auto Show is any indication (and it is): Not very well. This complete lack of anything electric is made worse by the fact that GM promised it wouldn’t be this way. In October 2017, GM said they would have “at least 20 new all-electric vehicles that will launch by 2023.” GM president Mark Reuss added that “these aren’t just words in a war of press releases.” And one year ago, they upped that ante to 30 new EVs by 2025. At the time, GM was producing exactly one EV, the Chevy Bolt, and one PHEV, the Chevy Volt. Now, it is currently producing exactly zero EVs, since the Volt is out of production and Chevy Bolt EV lines are currently halted.
GM has had four years out of the five they gave themselves, and they haven’t made any progress whatsoever on their promise. They’ve launched one EV (Bolt EUV) and stopped three production lines (Volt, and temporarily the Bolt and EUV). If they had delivered on even 20% of their promise in the four years since they made it, they’d still at least have more EVs now than they did then. But they didn’t, and they have nothing."
mspohr
Well-Known Member
But.... ?!? Biden told us that GM was leading the EV revolution????Meanwhile, GM appears to be going nowhere.
GM promised 20 new EVs by 2023. They brought zero to the LA Auto Show
GM said it would release 20 new EVs by 2023. How's that going? If GM's LA Auto Show booth is any indication, not very well.
"In October 2017, GM announced that it would release 20 new EVs by 2023 – just over five years from then, and just over one year from now. How’s that going? If GM’s booth at the LA Auto Show is any indication (and it is): Not very well. This complete lack of anything electric is made worse by the fact that GM promised it wouldn’t be this way. In October 2017, GM said they would have “at least 20 new all-electric vehicles that will launch by 2023.” GM president Mark Reuss added that “these aren’t just words in a war of press releases.” And one year ago, they upped that ante to 30 new EVs by 2025. At the time, GM was producing exactly one EV, the Chevy Bolt, and one PHEV, the Chevy Volt. Now, it is currently producing exactly zero EVs, since the Volt is out of production and Chevy Bolt EV lines are currently halted.
GM has had four years out of the five they gave themselves, and they haven’t made any progress whatsoever on their promise. They’ve launched one EV (Bolt EUV) and stopped three production lines (Volt, and temporarily the Bolt and EUV). If they had delivered on even 20% of their promise in the four years since they made it, they’d still at least have more EVs now than they did then. But they didn’t, and they have nothing."
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Sad but true... Biden is losing it more quickly than we thought.
Joe Biden gives GM CEO Mary Barra credit for 'electrifying the entire auto industry,' but he's wrong
US President Joe Biden was at the inauguration of GM’s Factory Zero yesterday, the company’s first electric vehicle factory, and...
electrek.co
"US President Joe Biden was at the inauguration of GM’s Factory Zero yesterday, the company’s first electric vehicle factory, and he gave a speech in which he gave credit to GM CEO Mary Barra for “electrifying the entire auto industry.” Fact check: Biden is dead wrong about that.
If you know anything about the auto industry, you’d think that this is a joke, but Biden literally followed up by adding that he is “serious.” As if there was a laugh track. Now Biden appears to give Barra credit for her announcement that GM is going “all-electric by 2035.”
The only way that GM would be “leading” is if that was actually ahead of other automakers or if other automakers, like Tesla, haven’t achieved being all-electric, which they did. If you want to give someone credit, give it to Tesla and Elon Musk, but that’s not even the point. You also have to look at the context in which GM made that announcement. You can’t forget that before Biden was elected, GM backed Donald Trump’s effort to curtail California’s right to implement stricter emission standards that forced automakers like GM to produce more electric vehicles. GM was literally suing the state to slow down EV adoption."
The trend is your friend. The trend in BEV sales over the last 10 years indicates that BEV will dominate auto sales in 2027.
The log scales used for market share in the first chart is useful to see that in the early stages the logistic curve is nearly exponential, linear on the log scale. The enables us to see that the trend is pretty stable. Specifically, trend in the first five years is very much in line with the the last 5 years. We're only about 6 years away from BEV dominance, so the trend seen here only needs to hold up for another 6 years.
Anyone speculating that dominance won't come until 2040 is ignoring the historical trend or suggesting that some exogenous for will step in to dramatically alter it within the next couple of years. It would be helpful if such analyst were to say what they think this trend bending force is, rather than just passing it off as conservatism. There is a conservation of momentum that is baked into the capital cycle.
Of course, it's fine to disagree. We can check back a year from now and see if there is any meaningful deviation from the trend. This trend is expecting about 9.1% in 2022 and 13.7% in 2023. 2021 (actual thru Q3 and forecasted for Q4) is coming in a bit high. If the trend is bending, it could just as well bend up or down. We'll see. Anyone can speculate on various causes in either direction. So I find it useful just to accept the trend and see how it holds up. I'd like to believe that BEVs reach more than 80% by 2030, but right now the trend says we're on pace to hit just 80%.
Indeed it says 20% in 2024, 50% in 2027 and 80%. This implies nearly linear growth on the ordinary market share scale from 2024 to 2030, as seen in chart below. Thus, it will become more obvious to the general public that EV market share is in serious growth mode. Certainly, the exponential growth phase prior to 2024 is much more serious growth than after 2024, but the general public has a hard time appreciating log-scale charts or understanding exponential growth. But the general public will appreciate massive absolute growth that happens in the second half of the decade. In the last 6 years of the decade, an average of 10% points of market share will shift each year. This phase will be absolutely brutal for unprepared automakers. It's easy for analysts to get this backwards when they try to build out forecasts. They can think that big auto can't transition that quickly; ergo, the transition must go slower. But the more brutal logic is: if any auto company can't keep up with that pace of transition; it will lose market share and may even go out of business. This is the nature of disruptive innovation; most legacy players will not survive it intact. But any analyst that is factoring in the plans of legacy automakers will be basing their forecast on transition rate that is slow enough that legacy companies think they can survive. Put simply, the legacy industry thinks it can survive a transition where BEVs hit 50% around 2040. This is the outlook of players that will not survive the disruption if it continues at the pace of the last 10 years.
The log scales used for market share in the first chart is useful to see that in the early stages the logistic curve is nearly exponential, linear on the log scale. The enables us to see that the trend is pretty stable. Specifically, trend in the first five years is very much in line with the the last 5 years. We're only about 6 years away from BEV dominance, so the trend seen here only needs to hold up for another 6 years.
Anyone speculating that dominance won't come until 2040 is ignoring the historical trend or suggesting that some exogenous for will step in to dramatically alter it within the next couple of years. It would be helpful if such analyst were to say what they think this trend bending force is, rather than just passing it off as conservatism. There is a conservation of momentum that is baked into the capital cycle.
Of course, it's fine to disagree. We can check back a year from now and see if there is any meaningful deviation from the trend. This trend is expecting about 9.1% in 2022 and 13.7% in 2023. 2021 (actual thru Q3 and forecasted for Q4) is coming in a bit high. If the trend is bending, it could just as well bend up or down. We'll see. Anyone can speculate on various causes in either direction. So I find it useful just to accept the trend and see how it holds up. I'd like to believe that BEVs reach more than 80% by 2030, but right now the trend says we're on pace to hit just 80%.
Indeed it says 20% in 2024, 50% in 2027 and 80%. This implies nearly linear growth on the ordinary market share scale from 2024 to 2030, as seen in chart below. Thus, it will become more obvious to the general public that EV market share is in serious growth mode. Certainly, the exponential growth phase prior to 2024 is much more serious growth than after 2024, but the general public has a hard time appreciating log-scale charts or understanding exponential growth. But the general public will appreciate massive absolute growth that happens in the second half of the decade. In the last 6 years of the decade, an average of 10% points of market share will shift each year. This phase will be absolutely brutal for unprepared automakers. It's easy for analysts to get this backwards when they try to build out forecasts. They can think that big auto can't transition that quickly; ergo, the transition must go slower. But the more brutal logic is: if any auto company can't keep up with that pace of transition; it will lose market share and may even go out of business. This is the nature of disruptive innovation; most legacy players will not survive it intact. But any analyst that is factoring in the plans of legacy automakers will be basing their forecast on transition rate that is slow enough that legacy companies think they can survive. Put simply, the legacy industry thinks it can survive a transition where BEVs hit 50% around 2040. This is the outlook of players that will not survive the disruption if it continues at the pace of the last 10 years.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
The rumored goal this year for Mach-e was 50k. As of Oct 31 they had sold 53k worldwide.
Farley says there is demand for 200k Mach-e per year at current pricing.
And Norwegian customers are pestering Norwegian Ford dealers about the F-150 Lightning. Wouldn't hurt to ship 1k Lightning Platinums to to Norway. Or a Norwegian special edition Lightning Kings Ranch. My guess is if a Norwegian is going to buy an F-150 he wants the whole hog American experience.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
A lot of these well-known brands and iconic models will history in the coming decade...
www.visualcapitalist.com
Ranked: The 35 Vehicles With the Longest Production Runs
Successful cars come in many shapes and sizes. See which ones have stood the test of time in this infographic.
www.visualcapitalist.com
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Interesting reading... the Tesla Model 3 is still the best-selling all-electric vehicle in Germany.
electrek.co
Tagesschau put together a list of the top best-selling all-electric vehicles in the market, and Tesla topped the list:
Tesla is beating German automakers on their own turf even without Giga Berlin – Should they be scared?
German auto data for 2021 shows that Tesla is beating German automakers on their own turf when it comes to...
electrek.co
Tagesschau put together a list of the top best-selling all-electric vehicles in the market, and Tesla topped the list:
- Tesla Model 3
- VW e-Up
- VW ID.3
- Renault Zoe
- Smart EQ ForTwo
- Hyundai Kona Electric
- Skoda Enyaq Electric
- VW ID.4
- Fiat 500e
- BMW i3
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