EV Market Share

[jhm]

Tesla Production Now Approximately Twice As High As Jaguar Production | CleanTechnica

Ok, Jaguar, you've got a serious back order on your iPace. What comes next? Will Jag jump into producing the volume of batteries they need to meet demand for iPace? Are they willing to burn cash like an Elon to be a serious EV maker? I hope they go for it. I also wish they would just partner with Tesla on the Supercharger network. I've always wished that Jaguar would step into the Tesla ecosystem. They can keep making classy cars and delivery the best EV experience along with Tesla.

We've been chatting about the possibility of Tesla supplying packs to other OEMs. One way to approach this is for an OEM like Jag to participate in a Gigafactory JV along with Panasonic and Tesla. So they bring their own capital to the party, but benefit from the economy of scale that a GF provides. This could become more attractive to Tesla if it includes a commitment to share in the Supercharger Network. So Tesla benefits from better utilization of shared infrastructure as well as brand enhancement through association.

Part of my thesis about coming consolidation in the auto industry is that I think we will see a lot of alliances and eventual mergers. Basically, the cash burn required in R&D, scale up of battery production and charging and other EV service networks it a tall order for any automaker. Just look at how Tesla is punished for attempting this. Shall a smaller OEM take on all these risks to get to the scale that makes this all work. Basically, a small but classy OEM like Jaguar could participate within the Tesla ecosystem (or some other EV alliance) and not have to triple or quintuple their existing scale to get to some profitable scale. Jag could eventually make some 200k EVs per year and exit the ICE business. If that is the extent of their aspiration, then hooking up with a solid EV ecosystem could take a lot of risk out of this transition. Another alternative to getting into the Tesla ecosystem would be to get into an alliance with other OEMs trying to make the same transition from ICE to EVs. But because Tesla has done so much of the hard work already, it seems that one could move much more directly into the EV market in alliance with Tesla. I recall that several years ago there was some suggestion that BMW was in conversation with Tesla. There was definitely the notion that BMW could share in the Supercharger network and perhaps share in battery tech as well. But then BMW pulled away from that in a hurry as if their pride was hurt that they might do well to work with Tesla. So where are they now? Tesla is still eating their lunch. One wonders where they would be today had they cooperated with Tesla. So I think all of these OEMs are going to need to weigh the pros and cons of a go it alone EV strategy. It seems that if you are not committed to massive cash burn like Tesla, you need to be in an alliance. But why be in an alliance that is not really competent in end-to-end EV experience yet?

 

[Tim]

I think I want to see a Munro-style teardown of the BAIC EX- and EC-series to find out how they did that, because here's our first car which is clearly cheaper than a Tesla, comparable range, and with large production volumes. BAIC has really exploded out of the blue here.

I'm not sure where the blog got it's range numbers, but baic advertises a 318km NEDC range with a 48kwh battery for the ex360. I think they get their batteries from catl. Doesn't seem like it's anything revolutionary, but its still good to see more long range EVs produced.

 

[renim]

CATL and BYD and Tesla panasonic would be the world's 3 largest automotive li ion battery makers. my gut feel is that due to bus sales, both CATL and BYD are large than Tesla on a kWh basis.

anyone can make a deal with CATL.

 

[jhm]

EV Sales: Battery Makers 2017
Battery Makers 2017: Panasonic & BYD Hold Majority Of Market

Here's how battery makers stacked up in 2017, just autos, not buses. Batteries grew 70% yoy vs 58% growth for EVs. This supports the view that the average battery size per car is going up. Notice that 64% of the battery market is supplied by the top 3. This is very high consolidation already, but the top 3 are not growing at 70% or higher, so the field is actually widening.

 

[renim]

2017纯电动客车动力电池装机量TOP10 CATL/惠州比亚迪/沃特玛占比超50% - OFweek新能源汽车网
now for some of the other automotive li ion perspective

cars are 38% by kWh
buses are 39%by kWh
others (ie council trucks etc) are 23%

so roughly, to calculate a Chinese battery makers automotive sales, take their car kWh and multiply it by (100/38) ie 2.6.

so if byd is 4.69 MWh cars li ion, then their automotive li ion is likely to be around 4.69 *(100/38) = 12.34MWh
same for CATL...same

 

[jhm]

I'm not sure where the blog got it's range numbers, but baic advertises a 318km NEDC range with a 48kwh battery for the ex360. I think they get their batteries from catl. Doesn't seem like it's anything revolutionary, but its still good to see more long range EVs produced.

I'd point out that BAIC only sold 1 EC in June, while EX topped the charts. My impression is that they may have suspended the EC line, but that's just speculation on my part. At any rate, I think things are changing quickly. A longer range may be becoming a requirement for having a best selling EV.

 

[jhm]

2017纯电动客车动力电池装机量TOP10 CATL/惠州比亚迪/沃特玛占比超50% - OFweek新能源汽车网
now for some of the other automotive li ion perspective
View attachment 321740
cars are 38% by kWh
buses are 39%by kWh
others (ie council trucks etc) are 23%

so roughly, to calculate a Chinese battery makers automotive sales, take their car kWh and multiply it by (100/38) ie 2.6.

so if byd is 4.69 MWh cars li ion, then their automotive li ion is likely to be around 4.69 *(100/38) = 12.34MWh
same for CATL...same

Wow, I'm impressed to see so much battery going into trucks.

From the point of view of displacing fuel, this is pretty cool. Commercial use can cycle batteries 3 or 4 times as frequently, thus, have 3 or 4 times the impact on fuel demand as personal vehicles.

Nice find.

 

[jhm]

8 New Electric & Plug-In Hybrid Cars In China | CleanTechnica

Here is more info on the BAIC EX360. The range is just at about 200 mile range on 48 kWh pack. I can't find anything to corroborate an EX series with 260 mile range, so it appears to be an error.

Even so, the EX360 seem to signal a transition to long range BEVs and higher power. In fact the EX360 tag highlights the 360 nM torque. The EX260 had 260 nM torque. So China is developing a taste for higher power EVs.

 

[renim]

plenty of Chinese cars in the 45-55kWh range

but 16-24kWh class will be around for a long time to come.

some partially blame the rise of the 150km range city EVs for Suzuki's withdrawal from China
新能源市场“小车”扎堆，铃木退出未起到警示作用？ - 第一电动网

 

[renim]

oh look chinese also learning about EV range

hmm thats a 70kWh vehicle called Weilai ES8

 

[renim]

crazy off-topic link
The Tri Axle Motorcycle Dump Trucks Of China - CarNewsChina.com

 

[Tim]

oh look chinese also learning about EV range

I think this is critical info. What we're seeing is that there's no magical sauce required to develop competitively priced(out the door ex-incentives) long range EVs.

As jhm and others have mentioned, battery supply is the biggest constraint. And I don't mean Cobalt or any other primary ingredient, but lack of capex in gigafactory scale batteryproduction. I really don't see battery manufacturers willing(or able) to make the orders of magnitude larger investments required in these facilities unless larger global auto manufacturers pony up the cash like Tesla did with Panasonic.

Right now Chinese battery production investment is localized to China - and for good reason. Outside China, there's no real competition for Tesla. The question to me is whether the Chinese manufacturers and Tesla can get good enough at making evs into good cars before the other guys wake up. They seem to have a huge headstart. I look forward to when we start seeing Chinese automakers export EVs to the us. I think it will be a game changer.

Thanks for the posts Renim.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

oh look chinese also learning about EV range
View attachment 321776
hmm thats a 70kWh vehicle called Weilai ES8

Thanks.
We know them as NIO outside China. There's been some press about it. It's a bit overweight, which contributes to the poor range.

 

[GSP]

and a list of plug in electrics. note most are barely worth it in terms of electric range, other than the Volt and the BMW i3
http://evadc.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EVInfoSheet-20180403.pdf
View attachment 320759

Don't forget the 47-mile Honda Claiity PHEV.

GSP

 

[winfield100]

Don't forget the 47-mile Honda Claiity PHEV.

GSP

it's there, so far in 2018 (data courtesy of insideevs.com and evadc.org)
its hard to cut/[aste spreadsheet, even tho i've done computers for 49 years
Honda Clarity PHEV $33,400 (47+gas) 17 kWh

2018 U.S. EV SALES JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN TOTAL kWh Total kWh in 2018
Honda Clarity PHEV 594 881 1061 1049 1639 1445 8,114 17 137,938

 

[jhm]

crazy off-topic link
The Tri Axle Motorcycle Dump Trucks Of China - CarNewsChina.com

Holy Fire God!

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

it's there, so far in 2018 (data courtesy of insideevs.com and evadc.org)
its hard to cut/[aste spreadsheet, even tho i've done computers for 49 years
Honda Clarity PHEV $33,400 (47+gas) 17 kWh

2018 U.S. EV SALES JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN TOTAL kWh Total kWh in 2018
Honda Clarity PHEV 594 881 1061 1049 1639 1445 8,114 17 137,938

2018 U.S. EV SALES	JAN	FEB	MAR	APR	MAY	JUN	TOTAL	kWh	Total kWh
Honda Clarity PHEV	594	881	1061	1049	1639	1445	6,669	17	113,373

The code tag is handy if you have text with tabs as long as the headings and values aren't too mismatched.

 

[jhm]

View attachment 320758
here is an up to date (mostly ) list of pure electrics, note: only Tesla and Chevy Bolt are > 200 mile range, rest are basically "city" cars at best

I've spent a little time analyzing the cars on this info graphic. It is natural to suppose that all else being equal, many consumers would prefer a lower price and higher range. This partial ordering defines vehicles along an efficient frontier that have no alternative that are both cheaper and lower range. This frontier is roughly a straight line from the Smart Electric at $23.9k for 58 miles to the Model 3 LR at $44k for 310 miles. Fitting this line leads to the following,

EfficientPrice = $19k + $75×RangeMiles
Any BEV well above this means you are paying a premium for something (Model S/X) or just paying too much for range. Longer term the premium above the line needs to have a clear value proposition to support it. One of the worst prices is the BMW i3. At $44,450 it offers just 114 miles range. The efficient price would be $27,550, but it is priced at a $16,900 premium to this. Certainly a BMW ought to be able to command some premium as a high end brand, but will BMW fans really support a $17k premium when for the same money they could get a 310 mile range in a Tesla Model 3?

Curiously the incremental price in the Model 3 series is about $9000 for 90 to 105 extra miles of range, so $86 to $100 per incremental mile of range. So even here you are paying a slight premium to $75 for incremental range. Even so the Model 3 LR is easily the best value for the money.

 

[winfield100]

2018 U.S. EV SALES    JAN    FEB    MAR    APR    MAY    JUN    TOTAL    kWh    Total kWh
Honda Clarity PHEV    594    881    1061    1049    1639    1445    6,669    17    113,373

The code tag is handy if you have text with tabs as long as the headings and values aren't too mismatched.

to quote Valentine Michael Smith "I am but an egg" thanks. i will try to muddle thru (migraines for 10 daze so far)

 

[renim]

'If we gather sales by Automotive Groups, the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance is ahead, with 11% share (Up 1% regarding 2017), followed by BYD and Tesla, both with 9% share, while BAIC, the BMW Group and the Volkswagen Group all race for #4, with 8% share'
EV Sales: Global Top 20 - June 2018

ROW rest of world