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EV Market Share

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by jhm, Jul 26, 2018.

  1. renim

    renim Active Member

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    perspective battery size for busses and logistics
    (BYD only)
    upload_2018-8-1_9-47-42.png
    upload_2018-8-1_9-48-16.png

    so range is from 145kWh to 591kWh

    nominal one is the 324kWh bus
     
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  2. winfield100

    winfield100 Active Member

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  3. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    Love it. Tesla is now the clear leader for the month, but not quite enough to push ahead of BYD for YTD ranking. Just 644 vehicles separate BYD and Tesla for YTD sales. Tesla should jump to about 24k in July.

    Tesla is gaining market share. It has 9.32% share YTD, but 12.13% share of June sales.

    This monthly market share is telling because it is clearly ramping up production. In July, Tesla could deliver 24k while the whole market is about 180k. Thus, Tesla could climb above 13.3%. If Tesla could magically ramp to 10k Model 3 per week for in the next month, it would capture 28% market share. I just point this out to show an upper limit to how much share the Model 3 could gain Tesla. Naturally, but the time Tesla realizes the 10k weekly rate, many other EVs will be selling more EVs too. So it is not really likely that Tesla will see 28% anytime soon, but the more quickly it ramps the M3, the more share it gains. My hope is that Tesla could capture 15% market share with the M3 added to MS/MX.

    [​IMG]
     
  4. renim

    renim Active Member

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    yeah but,

    China has a strange sawtooth pattern to NEV sales, starts year slow, ramps up to december, then plummets to start again
    [​IMG]

    so i expect 2nd half 2018 to be liftoff for Chinese manufacturers yet again.

    but it could easily be shared by new entrants so byd, baic, saic, geely, so not mere brands but the oems.

    speaking of oem, RNM could go either way, will there be an Osborne effect with LEAF 60kWh (definitely for USA, not for ROW) what about Kangoo upgrades? i think ZOE is maxxed out for now (both supply and demand) but there is change for kangoo and LEAF

    i wouldn't be surprised if we had 8 oems at 7-9% for 2018, but none above 9.5%
    ie
    RNM
    Tesla
    BYD
    BAIC
    BMW
    VW
    Geely
    SAIC

    honestly Geely is well known in the media, but SAIC is the real powerhouse.

    we haven't seen too many entrants from the China's SOE automakers, but its coming.
     
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  5. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    FYI Jaguar Cars is part of JLR(Jaguar Land Rover).

    JLR is a wholly owned subsidiary of Tata Motors ($12B market Cap)

    Tata Motors is a subsidiary of Tata Group, Market Cap ~$130B 2017 Revenue $100B.

    So a deal with Jaguar is really a deal with Tata Motors/Tata Group.

    I think a dose of "not invented here syndrome" would be evident and would wound Tata Group pride to become part of Tesla ecosystem.

    They purchased JLR to be the crown jewel in the empire, to show they are a world class company that can compete head to head with the world's best, not that they need a crutch to compete.
     
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  6. renim

    renim Active Member

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    upload_2018-8-1_12-50-42.png

    considering the manufacturer's revenue on the vehicles above, the tesla m3 entrance as a $50k (sales price) at 20k (production) per month places it above all SUV/sedans for the q3 2018 on a revenue basis. that gotta get the entire USA auto industrys attention. not quite pickup truck level, but ram pickup is vulnerable to 4th place.

    yet Toyota could so easily make a Toyota RAV4 PHEV, if Mitsubishi can do it, Toyota could do in their sleep. but I predict the Toyota will wait until after the federal rebates are long gone, before bring a RAV4 PHEV to market.
     
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  7. renim

    renim Active Member

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    the 3 month production break will stop it being the world best selling EV this year, but watch out for next ha ha upload_2018-8-6_9-51-37.png
    if they hold price steady while increasing range by 22%. then there is a good chance that the global best selling EV for 2017 (and first 5 months 2018) will come back with a vengeance.

    of course competition in china in 2019 will be blood thirsty, so lots of cars, little profit.
     
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  8. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 Porsche 918 Hybrid

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    Here are a few charts from a blog that put things in perspective for the US EV market share :cool:

    Tesla July 2018 Market Share BEV.png Tesla July 2018 Market Share .png
     
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  9. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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  10. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    Tesla, An Uncomfortable Wake-Up Call For Germany. All Hands On Deck! | CleanTechnica

    This article demonstrates how compelling a market share strategy is. For the author, all the debate around EVs ended when the Model 3 began to outsell any offering from Germany automakers. But of course, the recognition comes easily 6 years too late. The author laments that specs for models to come out in 2020 to 2025 are already behind the specs that Tesla is already delivering. So Germany is simply behind the tech learning curve and it is uncertain that it can catch up. Massive market share will continue to be lost to Tesla.

    But let's go back to the market share strategy. Go back to 2014 when Tesla was struggling to ramp up 20k Model S per year. At this point in time, the whole auto industry ought to have set itself to developing a challenger to the S and attempt outsell it. At that point, OEMs had a much better chance of being able to catch up and even surpass Tesla in its share of the BEV market. They could have afforded to lose money on these models as they were gaining critical experience and perspective on how to deliver a compelling EV. It's one thing to catch up to Tesla when it was building 20k to 40k, but quite another thing as Tesla is approaching 200k to 400k, nearly tripling in a single year. Ironically, had a BMW or Audi kept pace with Tesla, they would actually be gaining massive market share today, rather than losing it. Tesla is outselling BMW in the US now, BMW could have shared in the explosive growth of EVs at this time.

    So the race is on. Tesla has done a couple of laps while others try to figure out how to get off the starting block. Good luck.
     
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  11. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    You realize the author is our very own TMC Investment Forum well known member Alex Voigt?

    He has been lamenting the slow motion crash that is the ICEv dependent German Economy for quite a while now.

    German total Workforce 38M Directly Employed by Auto Industry 800k Indirectly Employed by Auto Industry ~4M.

    Germany exports 38% of GDP. Its world renowned reputation for quality and engineering prowess is based on the German Auto Industry.

    Without Mercedes, BMW,Audi, and Porsche

    Miele would not be able to sell $2k dishwashers. A large part of the reason consumers around the world are willing to pay such a premium over South Korean dishwashers is Hergestellt in Deutschland.

    A former Miele CEO once noted that he evaluated potential new markets by going there personally and noting how often he saw German cars. If local consumers were willing to pay a premium for German over American,Japanese, and Korean cars they would do the same for Miele Appliances.

    This is deadly serious for Germany. And Europe. Without the a strong German Auto Industry there is no bailouts for Ireland, Portugal,Spain, or Greece.
     
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  12. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Let me drop this here so it does not get lost in the market action thread.

    Basically Tesla's share of the global market is at about 0.4% and fast approaching 1%. I think this is at a scale where Tesla become a highly valuable acquisition target for any automaker the hopes to survive the next decade. To be sure, I do not want Tesla to be acquired. The point is simply that the value of Tesla as an acquisition target is very high. This should actually boost the market valuation of Tesla for many years well above what a conventional DCF model might suggest.

    For example, WhatsApp was acquired at a huge premium by FaceBook. This is because it represented a huge market share risk to FaceBook, not because it was intrinsically valuable. The situation with Tesla is of course not completely analogous. My point is simply that acquisition value can be substantially higher than intrinsic value. As shareholders, we need to understand the sort of premium that an potential acquirer would be willing to pay.

    With all the crazy surrounding the stock, we need to recognize that sitting on nearly 1% with the potential to take that to 20% by 2030 commands huge acquisition value. Indeed some of the bear activity going on may be motivated to soften up the price, oust Musk, and make Tesla obtainable. It's shorting not because Tesla is worth so little, but because Tesla is worth much, much more!
     
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  13. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 Porsche 918 Hybrid

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  14. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    Wow, and September Model 3 deliveries could almost double the year to date total.
     
  15. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    Yeah. Mongo, if you conflate quarterly numbers (60k) and Monthly (20k)...
    :oops:
    So will Q4 double year to day?
     
  16. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    Nice to see Model 3 sales ytd finally pull out ahead of Nissan LEAF. As Plug-in Car Manufacturer, Tesla pulled out ahead of BYD ytd ending July.

    Tesla will seriously pull away from BYD and the rest of the pack in the September results. I think we'll see this race heat up as the front runner speeds away.
     
  17. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 Porsche 918 Hybrid

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  18. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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  19. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 Porsche 918 Hybrid

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    I agree... BMW is in deep trouble in the US Market.
    They sold less than a third of the 3 & 4 series compared to the Model 3 sales in August :cool:
     
  20. winfield100

    winfield100 Active Member

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    upload_2018-10-7_9-1-14.png
     
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