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Factory 12v Li-ion Life Expectancy?

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Yeah only time will tell but if you think about it its made out of the the same cells* as the battery pack itself I can’t find a tear down where they actually get to the cells but sounds like it has 8(4 pairs of 2 per some videos i saw) 18650s or 2170s in it to make it 16v so as long as its maintained at proper charge and not drained too Much then i don't see why It cant last the life time of the car.

*Excluding the RWD M3 where its a lithium iron phosphate in the man pack
 
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Lets put it this way;

IF Tesla has the charging and maintenance profile programmed properly, kept at a good state of charge (not full and not empty, ideally around 50%), that battery could easily last 20+ years. If they have poor programming like they do with the Lead Acids (Tesla is quite literally cooking the lead acids), that battery will not last long at all.


Just to give one example how charging profiles, state of charge and storage, play a factor.
I got my first laptop, October 21, 1998. It is currently sitting on my shelf behind me. It is old, yes, but it has lots of old school ports, and lets me program some more archaic equipment that is otherwise a nightmare to do with a more modern computer + adapters & outdated incompatible drivers.
Now, that laptop, that is now 25, yes, 25 years old, STILL has it's ORIGINAL Lithium Ion Battery. That Lithium Ion battery, when the laptop was new, provided a run time of about 3 1/2 hours.
Right now, after 25 years, ok, actually 24 1/2 years, STILL provides a run time of about 2 1/2 hours. Not too shabby..... I know not quite the same, but the importance of proper storage, I don't use it every day, so I keep it stored around 50%, is very important.
 
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