Fiat can do it in 12!

[CHG-ON]

"If he can show me that it can be done, I will do it as well, copy him, add Italian style to it and put it on the market within 12 months," he added.

Hey Tony! My car needs a fixin'.

 

[voip-ninja]

I typically ignore posts that include the phrase 'I don't see', so as to avoid using a sarcastic line about someone's apparently obvious blindness... But this is another opportunity to educate rather than ridicule, so I'll try that once again (despite your reluctance to the tactic)... Please take the time to watch some videos online that feature the Chief Technology Officer at Tesla Motors, JB Straubel.

He explains that the energy density of battery cells typically doubles every ten years or so. Thus, the amount of battery cells needed for a given capacity drops over time. Which means the weight goes down for that capacity, increasing range. Likewise, for a given weight, there will be more energy stored, also increasing range. He also believes it will be possible to increase charging speeds by a wide margin, and likely within the next five years.

Here are two of them for your edification:

Here's something for your edification, not everyone who disagrees with you or disagrees with everything that comes out of Tesla motors is a pedantic idiot. Your posts in which you deride anyone who disagrees with you and imply that they are a moron are, frankly tiring.

Yes, battery technology is improving over time, there is actually an interesting discussion on the chemistry specifically as it relates to Straubels claims here;

Is it true that battery energy density improves 5-8% per year? - Quora

As pointed out, what causes large jumps in battery energy density are not incremental improvements in battery cell manufacturing technology but rather jumps to new chemistries that include big gains.

These changes are sometimes easily adopted in existing manufacturing techniques and other times they are not and require major changes in manufacturing in order for the improvements to be realized.

It is my personal opinion that some of the more promising improvements in battery technology will not be easy for companies like Tesla to implement in large scale manufacturing at least in the near term. There are many legitimate reasons to have this opinion beyond simply disagreeing with something Musk or one of his engineers states and it does not make someone a moron, despite what you imply.

Lithium batteries were invented in the 70s and it took almost 20 years for them to make their way into consumer devices, despite their many advantages. They initially also had some major drawbacks such as very fast degradation after a relatively low number of duty cycles.

The idea that Tesla will consistently realize continued battery improvements of 5% every year is highly optimistic in my opinion as many of the newest improvements to the technology are difficult to implement and have manufacturing hurdles that will take time to overcome.

Will batteries 5 years from now be better? Of course they will, but I don't think they will be 25% better in energy storage density and Tesla has not demonstrated this 25% density improvement between Model S battery versions in 5 years that I am aware of.

There is no Moore's law for batteries and even if there were it is not a realizable continued improvement as even Moore's law for transistor improvements is officially dead. Someone like yourself would have been making similar claims about transistor improvements 7 years ago because it did not seem at the time that we would run out of road as soon as we did.

If the forum has an ignore feature I will use it for your posts, because I don't like you very much even though you share some pretty good information.

 

[voip-ninja]

And, unsurprisingly, the goal posts start to shift. You said 'pollution' not fossil fuel pollution. The EPA budget has gone down, due to a reduction in pollution (i.e. because they did their job). Why make such a statement if you never under any circumstances would follow through?

Thank you kindly.

No, you said my taxes, etc would go down if there were less pollution and that has never happened. Showing that a government agency budgeted less from one year to the next doesn't have anything to do with my taxes and never will until the government learns to live within its means and stop spending a great deal more than they are taking in.

 

[Red Sage]

However, if you look at subsidies per capita, the amount spent subsidizing fossil fuels is nothing compared to what is being spent on alternative fuels subsidies. The problem with doing this is that we build an industry to replace fossil fuels that must be subsidized at a very high level per capita to compete.

Using 'per capita' as a ranking is a complete red herring (unless you apply it to hydrogen fuel cell cars, then I agree wholeheartedly -- because that is just another part of the petroleum industry) if you mean by individual owner, or driver of the vehicles. Because tax dollars are spent to benefit the entire nation -- all citizens. So, if you are going 'per capita' you must use the WHOLE population, and ALL the dollars that are spent on a particular endeavor. Thus, if you divide a lower number (funds spent on alternative fuels) by the population, then divide a higher number (funds spent on supporting fossil fuels) by the population, guess what? The number spent per capita on petroleum products is HIGHER!

The subsidies can never stop or the industry will collapse.

This presumes facts not in evidence. Whatever INCENTIVES are in place for the propagation of Electric Vehicles were all instituted with the caveat that they MUST COME TO AN END at some point. Not some, not all, but every single [GOLDURNED] one of them! There are specific limits to every single program that supports EVs. There are exactly ZERO limits to any of the SUBSIDIES that have continuously supported the Petroleum Industry since World War II. Just because the support of oil has been deemed an eternal necessity does not mean the same will be true for electric vehicles. Tesla Motors has already shown that with desirable electric vehicles the need for subsidy, incentive, and external support diminishes to nonexistence.

Does that mean we shouldn't try? As long as it doesn't put the US at a competitive disadvantage for jobs, we should do all that we can.

All evidence available shows that the move toward alternative fuels and energy sources has continually CREATED new jobs. Each company that Elon Musk has formed since PayPal has employed more and more people. Certain positions that only were available for vehicles supported by the petroleum industry are now co-opted to create jobs for electric vehicles instead. Tires, wheels, seats, and headlights don't give a flaming fig what the drivetrain may be. Mechanically oriented individuals may well find it much easier to do remove & replace maintenance and repairs on electric cars than it ever was with even the simplest ICE. Car designers probably find their lives less stressful by not having to figure out a way to package and conceal several hundred pounds of heat generator and assorted accessories within the bodywork.

Now it would appear from your abundance of long bloviating post in which you speak down to all with an opinion that you have plenty of free time on your hands. Unfortunately, as a middle class, working class or however you choose to define me class, I do not so you will have to excuse me for not responding to your next pretentious post.

Wow. You are the one that believes in maintaining the MYTH of there being a 'Class System' in the United States of America, but you refer to my posts as being 'pretentious'? C'mon, MAN!

I grew up on a working farm and have been on my own since leaving home thirty-plus years ago. It is not for YOU to determine MY worth as someone that contributes to the American economy. I don't look down on YOU or ANYONE ELSE! And similarly, I will NOT allow anyone to treat me as if I do, or should.

Sure, I learned how to type, and I'm pretty good at it. So, yeah... I can actually write at length about subjects for which I am passionate about. There's a line from a movie I really enjoy...

"I'll tell you right out, I am a man who likes talking to a man who likes to talk!" -- 'The Maltese Falcon' (1941)​

There's your warning if you want to have a conversation, engage in debate, or have a discussion with me. I actually have things to say. And I will say them. When time allows, I will say them at length.

 

[Red Sage]

Here's something for your edification, not everyone who disagrees with you or disagrees with everything that comes out of Tesla motors is a pedantic idiot. Your posts in which you deride anyone who disagrees with you and imply that they are a moron are, frankly tiring.

I would suggest that perhaps you go back and read your own posts in this thread, in which you deride EVERYONE.

Assuming you haven't placed me on your IGNORE list yet... It's pretty easy. Just click the link to my name on the left. That will take you to my Member page here. On the right side of that page, directly across from my name should be the options to 'Report | Ignore | Follow'. Click the one that best suits your interests. Goodbye.

By the way, I'm just some guy on the internet. I would invite anyone and everyone that doesn't enjoy my posts or my writing style to IGNORE them entirely. Thank you.