Yes, I agree with that. Over time the higher cost you paid gets eroded by the running cost savings, not just fuel, but tax and servicing too
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Finally a mostly correct and unbiased EV article
- Thread starter Mr H
- Start date
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
History no predictor of future price, of course, but I'm happy ...
First 2015 MSP I had was circa £100K - for a former a VW Golf BlueMotion buyer - shafted by DieselGate - that was a big step up.
£100K cars are not renowned for strong residuals! at 3.5 years and 95K miles I traded it in for another and got a 50% trade in.
The M3 I swapped for an MY in February had a strong trade in too - the market was crazy for used cars then of course ... but my perception was that my EV trade-in was better-still than an ICE trade-in.
My crystal ball gazing suggests:
In, say, 3 years time when a new-today EV is sold it will be much in demand. Price of ownership of ICE will be tanking (either increased tax on Carbon Fuels, or everyone saying "ICE is a dead-end" or "How come my neighbour got an EV first"
)Between now and then the number of new EV sales will increase dramatically.
So I think at sale time it will be the perfect-storm of more-buyers-than-sellers. Today's number of sales of new EVs will be tiny, compared to then, so current owner will be one of very few to have that model / age / mileage that 2nd hand buyer wants
It is possible that Tech will Leapfrog and cause plunging new car price - e.g. a breakthrough in battery tech (unlikely, but) - but that would mean that the replacement new is much lower, so 2nd hand resale will be lower too, but "make-up differential" will be equivalent
See you in 3 years to see how the predictions went
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One other imponderable for the great depreciation crystal-ball gazing session is whether of not EV's apparent coping with age/miles better than ICE powered cars enters the public consciousness and displaces the current fear of battery's fading / failing.
Jason71
Well-Known Member
If my trade in of my 2019 M3 had gone ahead in May as planned ( damn you Shanghai Covid) mine would have been tyres
Jason71
Well-Known Member
the info I have read suggests the figure is actually 1/3 of drivers who don't have off street parking though that is still a lot and some of the 2/3rds may be communal rather than individual driveways which can still be a problem.
I have a friend with a privately owned flat that has theoretically allocated spaces but plenty of them so no one bothers who parks where. Don't think he even knows which is his. But from an EV standpoint he might as well be parking on street unless he can get the management company to start installing chargers and thus far they have shown no interest. if he was renting it might be even harder since he would have to convince his landlord to try to progress it before even going to the management company probably.
If looking secondhand then I don't believe Ice seconds will tank that soon. Repairs on EVs are £££ and specialist garages. ICE cars last some 12yrs and electricity prices aren't going down. Hybrids might be the safe compromise. You might buy a 3yr old ev but a 6yr old? Whereas a 6yr old ice could be a decent buy. Fuel cars will be around to at least 2040 and hybrids probably longer. I'd put money on it but doubt I'll be around to claim the winnings....
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
After writing I stumbled over a "50:50" on a probably-unchecked site. The point that site was making was that charging might be "50% off-road parkers" during the night and then others during the day "at work or when shopping" ('coz they aren't going to drive to a charging location and sit in the car for 30 minutes in the middle of the night, Natch!) and that that would even out the grid usage.
1/3rd : 2/3rds works for that too of course, and with the growing North Sea Wind turbine forest presumably 2/3rd charging overnight is better than only 50%
EVer Hopeful
Active Member
You do now
in so far as I have 210L of red on site with a hand pump and 2"20L jerry cans of petrol for my farm stuff. It'd be easy enough to add another 220L white diesel if I could be bothered.. it's hard to keep a spare can if sparks in the boot.
EVer Hopeful
Active Member
Fair point,
Mind you if 2/3 of drivers have the capability of charging at home, but 0/3 (not counting pgkevet of course
) have the ability to fill up at home, then overall it's getting closer to being a reasonably even comparison, time wise and convenience wise, between ICE and EV
Jason71
Well-Known Member
In the (not) words of Henry Wadsworth Longfellow:Fair point,
Mind you if 2/3 of drivers have the capability of charging at home, but 0/3 (not counting pgkevet of course
When charging is convenient it is very good indeed
But when it is bad it is horrid
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
Hmmm
EV public charging:
Plug in car, walk away and do something else. Have to have something else (productive) to do of course ... Supermarket shop, be "At work", sit in car and do Work Emails, Sleep, Read a book ... varying degrees of "productive time" of course.
Forecourt:
Stand there and pump, then queue to pay. 5 mins at best, more if buying cheapest at Supermarket as probably have to spend 5 mins queuing for a pump, and maybe spend another 5 mins on Detour to get to that pump.
When I did 35K miles p.a. it was around 10 mins a week - that's 8 hours a year. Doing nothing.
My first EV was out-of-range 2x a month. So 2x 20 minutes, x 12 months = ... <DrumRoll> ... 8 hours
Although my Wife says "It is NOT the same" so there is that
Cnixon
Member
Manufacturers also have been artificially inflating the EV price to make the ice cars more appealing. Engines are the bread and butter of the big manufacturers and differentiates them for some owners. An electric motor is er um boring! I personally think motor/batteries could be a fraction of the cost of what they replace.
Ev motors will be held to ransom for their neodymium. Time will come when they are less efficient and have to use electromagnets. Nothing boring about the speed controllers.
Cnixon
Member
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