First quarter 2018 deliveries

[ValueAnalyst]

Those new VIN's will not be produced in Q1. I think schonelucht nailed nailed the numbers on the first try. And I have to agree with AlMc's production assessment.

"those new VIN's will not be produced in Q1" - we don't know this, and they wouldn't need to be for 7k to prove too conservative.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Worldwide search interest levels for Model S (blue) and Model X (red) were almost exactly the same in the last 90 days.

 

[schonelucht]

"those new VIN's will not be produced in Q1" - we don't know this, and they wouldn't need to be for 7k to prove too conservative.

Correct. If every single VIN below 10k gets delivered then surely my guess is way too conservative. The new VINS don't really change the equation. Either nearly all VINS issued prior get produced and delivered and then I loose. Or Tesla has the usual amount of cars held up in quality control, transport and refused on first delivery due to small needed corrections and then my guess has a shot at being correct.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Correct. If every single VIN below 10k gets delivered then surely my guess is way too conservative. The new VINS don't really change the equation. Either nearly all VINS issued prior get produced and delivered and then I loose. Or Tesla has the usual amount of cars held up in quality control, transport and refused on first delivery due to small needed corrections and then my guess has a shot at being correct.

Not exactly, because only 1,550 Model 3's were delivered by Dec 31. You are betting that no VIN registered in 2018 will get delivered by March 31.

 

[schonelucht]

Or that are sufficiently large numbers of undelivered VINs registered in 2017. I am fully prepared to be wrong. (Well, wrong only on the upside really)

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Or that are sufficiently large numbers of undelivered VINs registered in 2017. I am fully prepared to be wrong. (Well, wrong only on the upside really)

You previously mentioned NHTSA registrations as a factor in your low estimate, but when new data emerged, you did not revise your estimate. The problem with the "only on the upside" approach is that you have set the stage for anchoring bias, which invalidates this poll.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

9 468 Model 3
12 641 Model S
11 876 Model X

Yours will likely prove most accurate, not only the 33,985 total, but also by product.

My 11k & 36k assumes activity pick-up, so I may revise down later if that doesn't happen, but I think it will.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Or that are sufficiently large numbers of undelivered VINs registered in 2017. I am fully prepared to be wrong. (Well, wrong only on the upside really)

Bloomberg is at 9.5k cumulative units produced through March 8, so 7k+ in 1Q18, with 3 more weeks to go. Add on the in-transit number, and we're already at 8k. Even if Tesla only delivers what is produced so far, which is an unreasonable assumption, that's 8k. Combine it with this tweet, which basically says their tool is a lagging indicator.

Tesla will probably say some B.S. like: "In the last seven working days of the quarter, we made 1,500 Model 3's, and in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 2,000 Model 3's per week."

I think 10k is reasonable, my 11k depends on a couple of more NHTSA's and significant pick-up in assignmnts, which may happen this week.

 

[techmaven]

12,000 Model S
10,500 Model X
9,500 Model 3

32k total

 

[sweter]

My "Model 3 Ramp" spreadsheet tells me this so far. I've been revising it from time to time and recently tried to keep it on the pessimistic side. 3rd column is weekly rate, 4th is total produced so far, 5th is total produced in the quarter. The total produced column loosely matches up with VINs spotted/assigned, which actually wasn't on purpose.

This is obviously production so deliveries would be 11279 minus last 3 weeks of production, so around 7-8k. But who cares about delivery numbers at this point?

No idea about S/X, but I'd bet slightly less than 25k.

So ~32k S3X deliveries.

EDIT: I don't see a way to change my vote, which was done days ago on a whim and now should be different Which is kind of bugger to have such poll so early in the quarter when a lot can change on a week to week basis.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

12,000 Model S
10,500 Model X
9,500 Model 3

32k total

10,500 Model X? 10% less than 2017 quarterly average... with rolling 90-day search interest at record.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

so deliveries would be 11279 minus last 3 weeks of production

Why, when majority of deliveries still on the West Coast?

Which is kind of bugger to have such poll so early in the quarter when a lot can change on a week to week basis.

I was wondering the same...

 

[RobStark]

10,500 Model X? 10% less than 2017 quarterly average... with rolling 90-day search interest at record.

Tesla emptied the pipeline. Sold everything not nailed down to reach almost 30k units in Q4 2017.

Then you have Fremont shutdown in Q1 plus shifting of labor from S/X to all hands on deck to get Model 3s out the door.

The most searched automotive brand in Pakistan is Lamborghini.

Doesn't mean they sell a lot of Lamborghinis in Pakistan.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Tesla emptied the pipeline. Sold everything not nailed down to reach almost 30k units in Q4 2017.

Then you have Fremont shutdown in Q1 plus shifting of labor from S/X to all hands on deck to get Model 3s out the door.

I don't think the pipeline went down to zero, and why would you expect it to increase? It was unusual that it went up in 1H17 in the first place.

The most searched automotive brand in Pakistan is Lamborghini.

Doesn't mean they sell a lot of Lamborghinis in Pakistan.

Search interest has been a solid indicator for Model S and Model X in recent quarters, which is what allowed me to call the surprisingly high Model X deliveries last quarter, while nailing the total.

10,500 for Model X and 7,000 for Model 3 are both unreasonably low estimates.

I like @EinSV and @Starno totals but @EinSV's S/X mix is way too skewed. I don't know how Tesla can deliver 14.6k S, seems too optimistic.

 

[RobStark]

I don't think the pipeline went down to zero, and why would you expect it to increase? It was unusual that it went up in 1H17 in the first place.

What was emptied needs to be refilled plus there are ever growing number of outlets.

Search interest has been a solid indicator for Model S and Model X in recent quarters, which is what allowed me to call the surprisingly high Model X deliveries last quarter, while nailing the total.

Searches can, at best, be indicative of demand. Demand is not the issue for Tesla Gen II vehicles. It is production.

10,500 for Model X and 7,000 for Model 3 are both unreasonably low estimates.

They are not. They may turn out to be wrong, like any of our projections.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

They are not. They may turn out to be wrong, like any of our projections.

We'll have to agree to disagree. With close to 10k already produced by March 8, I don't see how Model 3 deliveries can be below 8,000 at worst.

 

[RobStark]

We'll have to agree to disagree. With close to 10k already produced by March 8, I don't see how Model 3 deliveries can be below 8,000 at worst.

10k produced is an estimate. Tesla did not say they produced 10k as of March 8.

And that is from July 2017 not 10k produced in Q1.

There will be some in transit. A few for demonstration.

Not all Model 3 produced in Q1 will be delivered in Q1.

Q1 overhang should be much larger than Q4 overhang.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

10k produced is an estimate. Tesla did not say they produced 10k as of March 8.

And that is from July 2017 not 10k produced in Q1.

There will be some in transit. A few for demonstration.

Not all Model 3 produced in Q1 will be delivered in Q1.

Q1 overhang should be much larger than Q4 overhang.

10,000 produced so far (estimate yes, but likely trailing estimate as indicated by its creator) PLUS three weeks of increasing production so 5,000 more produced by end-1Q with the usual quarter-end push MINUS 1,550 delivered through Dec 31 MINUS one-to-two week production in transit since majority of deliveries still on West Coast MINUS say ten units for your “demo” = 10,000 reasonable; 8,000 worst reasonable case; 7,000 unreasonably low.

Your third, fourth and fifth points are basically the same thing said in different words.

 

[RobStark]

10,000 produced so far (estimate yes, but likely trailing estimate as tweeted out by its creator) PLUS three weeks of increasing production so 5,000 more produced by end-1Q with the usual quarter-end push MINUS 1,550 delivered through Dec 31 MINUS one-to-two week production in transit since majority of deliveries still on West Coast MINUS say ten units for your “demo” = 10,000 reasonable;

Estimates. Projections. To justify your high Q1 deliveries estimates.

You might end up being right.

Doesn't mean 7k is unreasonably low.

The consensus here has been about 20% too high for some time.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Estimates. Projections. To justify your high Q1 deliveries estimates.

You might end up being right.

Doesn't mean 7k is unreasonably low.

The consensus here has been about 20% too high for some time.

This poll’s consensus will have been grossly skewed due to anchoring bias from the first few posters who have previously proved overly conservative. Pollster should have been more careful... lost opportunity.