FSD Subscription

[S4WRXTTCS]

People continue to waste time discussing $50/month or less subscriptions...

Typically speculation is wasting time. Especially speculation on a feature that is no where close to what was advertised a great many years ago.

Now I do think there is a good argument for a long term owner not to do a subscription if the price is significantly higher than $50/month. Because with a subscription you NEVER own it, and you won't get anything for it when you sell it. If you buy FSD, and have it for 72 months you can probably get a non-trivial amount more for the vehicle because it has FSD. Especially if FSD gets a lot better than it is today.

The only way that a subscription would make sense would be around $50/month in that scenario. But, that doesn't make any sense for Tesla unless there a HUGE number of FSD holdouts. I don't know what the current take rate is or how many people would subscribe at various price points.

I'm expecting somewhere around $100 to $200 a month. Where it likely makes sense for Tesla, and some short time owners. At $100/month for 36 months it's basically a wash assuming 50% credit for FSD owners when they trade it in.

To be anywhere close to $100/month it has to be REALLY good. Because you expect to get something for that month every month. Auto-lane changes isn't going to cut it for most people.

 

[SlimJim]

I know I won't be wasting my money on a phantom braking road rage inducer.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I know I won't be wasting my money on a phantom braking road rage inducer.

That feature comes with the basic AP that's included in the car. So I don't know how you'll avoid that unless you get a used Tesla with AP1 or without AP at all.

FSD only adds some additional phantom braking. So I'm not sure its worth it.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

This is a really interesting thing to think about because when I see a used Tesla w/ FSD, I automatically subtract $7k to compare baseline price because my thinking is that the vehicle has depreciated but there effectively is no "depreciation" for FSD since it's replacement cost is still $7k.

My expectation is that FSD will have the normal 50% depreciation over 3-4 years as options typically depreciate. That's because the HW won't remain static. So HW4 (or beyond) will have capabilities that HW3 doesn't have.

If I'm buying a new car, and HW4 is substantially better than HW3 then I probably won't value HW3 FSD all that much.

 

[The_Observer]

My expectation is that FSD will have the normal 50% depreciation over 3-4 years as options typically depreciate. That's because the HW won't remain static. So HW4 (or beyond) will have capabilities that HW3 didn't have.

If I'm buying a new car, and HW4 is substantially better than HW3 then I probably won't value HW3 FSD all that much.

Then probably HW 3.0 car would be valued less in the beginning compared to a HW 4.0 car, without the cost of FSD included.

If you retrofit a HW 3.0 car to HW 4.0 (assuming if that's possible), then it would technically be valued about the same as a HW 4.0 car, assuming everything else also.

 

[PNWLeccy]

There is no HW 4.0, so there is no FSD depreciation right now. If we are doing theoreticals, if "HW 4.0" came out in 4 years, whats makes you think Tesla wont update my HW 3.0 to 4.0 for free if I purchase FSD just like they do now for 2.5->3.0?

 

[Rippin1Gear]

Yeah how can HW4 be any better than HW3 when HW3 it’s supposed to have FSD? I don’t see how it could be any “better” if my car drives it self already lol

 

[DrtyJrze]

So the expectation is that the features will improve, but Tesla will suddenly go against their history (and recent announcements) of price increases and drop the price significantly?

While someone does the mental gymnastics to answer that, can you also explain how the value of the improvements to FSD will not, idk, INCREASE the value of FSD to future buyers?

 

[cypho]

If Tesla wants to sell FSD to owners of older cars, their only option is to lower the price (or introduce a reasonably price subscription as they are hopefully doing).

Because the car will not last forever and you can't transfer FSD to another car. The value per mile/day may go up as FSD learns new tricks. But every day that goes by, the car is a bit closer to the grave.

Let's pick an edge case to make it obvious. How much would you pay to add FSD to a car that was 1 week away from being sent to the scrap heap? Way less than $7000 I bet, even if was greatly improved over today's feature set.

 

[jeremymc7]

While we’re talking theoretical.

Tesla goes against the industry buy offering hardware upgrades, new software features, improvements to the car as they come during the year instead of next year refresh.

I would love to see FSD actually being transferable from car to car. Even if you had to pay a $1000 fee.

Given the potential depreciation on resale and ripple would happy to pony up to transfers to their next car.

I can dream.

 

[MP3Mike]

$300/month for month to month or $2,000/year ($166/month).

 

[john5520]

All great points made already. Offering it as a choice between a subscription service and a loan would be appealing to a larger portion of their customer base. Those with HW 2.5 that prefer to subscribe would get HW 3.0, but be subjected to a cancellation policy to cover the cost of the upgrade. Those that prefer to own would go the loan route. One thing is for sure; the price is going to increase over time as long as demand is there.

 

[jeremymc7]

There’s a practical limit to the pricing. Musk can’t just keep raising the price indefinitely. At a certain point you’ll push people elsewhere, or they’ll just not buy. You can’t sell many $35k car’s with say a $15k a single software upgrade. Especially when other manufacturer’s eventually catch up.

 

[Giosan]

Here in the Netherlands, FSD is not really usable (I don't have it, but that's what I think). I like gimmicks like (smart) summon though and I would actually have use for it where I live. Would be great if they have different subscriptions, like 25,- m/o for summon only. Or even a 1 time payment per summon use Which will be paid the same way as supercharge sessions.

 

[Knightshade]

There is no HW 4.0

There is though. It was specifically mentioned as being in development during autonomy day. Was described as 2 years away at the time- so roughly 1 year out now.

Course that's Elon time.

It's LIKELY to be designed to be swappable in just like HW3 was, but don't think they officially said so.

Yeah how can HW4 be any better than HW3 when HW3 it’s supposed to have FSD? I don’t see how it could be any “better” if my car drives it self already lol

Lower power consumption was the only specific thing they mentioned at the time- the driving computer uses a decent amount of juice (and presumably will use more as more features are added)

If Tesla wants to sell FSD to owners of older cars, their only option is to lower the price (or introduce a reasonably price subscription as they are hopefully doing).

But there's always going to be more future buyers than older car owners without FSD.

So slashing the price makes no sense in that world.

A subscription model where older buyers end up paying MORE but over a longer period (like it's $X per month, but you're OBLIGATED to keep it for Y years) might make sense though- give older buyers a chance to get the features without a big initial outlay- but you still collect a decent amount of $ for it- potentially more than if they'd just bought it- and maybe they don't even end up owning it at the end.

There’s a practical limit to the pricing. Musk can’t just keep raising the price indefinitely. At a certain point you’ll push people elsewhere

Where, elsewhere, can I buy an FSD car?

Especially when other manufacturer’s eventually catch up.

When is that?

I ask because most haven't even been able to catch up to making a worthwhile EV without any self driving features.

And most aren't remotely close to even making ICE vehicles with such features of comparable quality.

Audi just recently announced they were abandoning their own efforts to push out L3 driving.


Folks have been insisting everyone else is gonna "catch up" to Tesla any day now for years and there continues to be no sign of it.

Hell VW claimed back in 2012 that by 2018 they'd be the leading seller of EVs in the world.

Currently, 2 years after VWs target for that, Tesla outsells them like 500 to 1 or something insane.





Now- all that said- I still don't believe Tesla is going to ever get to L5 (or even 4) with the current hardware so I agree they can't keep raising the price FOREVER... but there's another 1k bump promised in a couple months so we know they're going to 8k at least.... and if they got to actual L3 (which I think is possible at least on highways) then 10k wouldn't be at all unreasonable or unlikely to sell decently well.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

It's LIKELY to be designed to be swappable in just like HW3 was, but don't think they officially said so.

Correct. They haven't confirmed it either way.

If HW4 is a computer only upgrade then I could certainly see them upgrading people. But, I don't believe HW4 will be a computer only upgrade, and it will require new sensors like rear corner radars at the very least. Perhaps even a change to the driver monitoring away from the torque sensor (as we're going to be stuck with Level 2 driver assist for awhile).

I think Tesla learned a hard lesson on offering HW upgrades, and I don't think they'll repeat that mistake.

From a customer perspective I think it's pretty neat that an early AP2 owner can upgrade to not just HW3, but MCU2. Aside from how long an AP2 owner had to wait to do that.

I don't expect to be able to do that with my HW2.5 (which is now HW3) Model 3 in 2-4 years. I expect to be facing the "ugh, this sucks" because my car won't be capable of FSD, and yet I was promised FSD.

 

[Knightshade]

Correct. They haven't confirmed it either way.

If HW4 is a computer only upgrade then I could certainly see them upgrading people. But, I don't believe HW4 will be a computer only upgrade, and it will require new sensors like rear corner radars at the very least. Perhaps even a change to the driver monitoring away from the torque sensor (as we're going to be stuck with Level 2 driver assist for awhile).

I think Tesla learned a hard lesson on offering HW upgrades, and I don't think they'll repeat that mistake.

From a customer perspective I think it's pretty neat that an early AP2 owner can upgrade to not just HW3, but MCU2. Aside from how long an AP2 owner had to wait to do that.

I don't expect to be able to do that with my HW2.5 (which is now HW3) Model 3 in 2-4 years. I expect to be facing the "ugh, this sucks" because my car won't be capable of FSD, and yet I was promised FSD.

Well- that's why they changed the definition of FSD IMHO.

For pre-march-19 buyers Tesla will have to upgrade them as far as it takes... or give them all $3000-4000 refunds for being unable to deliver what was promised.

The post march 19 buyers? some L2 version of NoA in the city and they're covered if it turns out they can't give them more than that.... (and hell, the FSD buyers after last weeks change, even a bit less than that)

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

So the expectation is that the features will improve, but Tesla will suddenly go against their history (and recent announcements) of price increases and drop the price significantly?

While someone does the mental gymnastics to answer that, can you also explain how the value of the improvements to FSD will not, idk, INCREASE the value of FSD to future buyers?

It's FAR easier for me to justify spending $7K upfront on the excitement of things to come than it is for me to spend even $100 a month on something lame.

It's a psychology thing. When you give people fine grained monthly control of their expenditures they're going to tighten down on things that don't make sense unless they're trivial in cost.
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If FSD was only a subscription thing for $100 a month I would have canceled within the first month. This is assuming my car had basic AP.

I have no disagreement that people would be willing to spend hundreds a month on a car that's actually capable of FSD.

For a HW3 vehicle I think the price of FSD will peak at $8K, but that's basically what I paid ($5K for EAP, and $3K for FSD). I expect FSD to be far higher on HW4+ vehicles.

 

[ElectricIAC]

I’m going to say it will be based off your typical Tesla loan of 72mos and put it between $97-120/mo. Even better if it’s a rolling balance that eventually adds up to the $7,000 current price. It honestly costs Tesla nothing (let’s be real, it’s a software suite for those already on HW3) to offer the product as an “interest free loan” as it is money that in many cases people would decline to part with (at least in current iteration)

In fact, it’s a benefit as it lets them tap into that money *now* unfettered versus in portions based on promised features delivered. Now, for those with HW2/2.5 there perhaps should be a required holding period to recover money spent on the upgrade to HW3.

To those that disagree because you forked over the big bite from the get go or at some point down the line: (I am part of this group on my P3D+, btw)

Get over it, Tesla is known for screwing over early adopters.

 

[MP3Mike]

I’m going to say it will be based off your typical Tesla loan of 72mos and put it between $97-120/mo. Even better if it’s a rolling balance that eventually adds up to the $7,000 current price. It honestly costs Tesla nothing to offer the product as an “interest free loan” as it is money that in many cases people would decline to part with (at least in current iteration)

That isn't going to happen. They've already said it is going to cost more than rolling FSD into your loan/lease. (Which isn't interest free.)