FSD worth now and future?

[Daniel in SD]

Except that TSLA stock reflects an awful lot of other factors other than FSD software capability.

Cruise is valued at $19 Billion. The claim is that Waymo is valued at a few times that (it's entirely owned by Alphabet right now). There are a bunch of other self-driving startups that I'm sure have crazy valuations. Tesla has by far the cheapest hardware cost. The point is that the value of working FSD would be many multiples of Tesla's current valuation.

 

[afadeev]

Cruise is valued at $19 Billion. The claim is that Waymo is valued at a few times that (it's entirely owned by Alphabet right now). There are a bunch of other self-driving startups that I'm sure have crazy valuations. Tesla has by far the cheapest hardware cost. The point is that the value of working FSD would be many multiples of Tesla's current valuation.

Not of Tesla can't monetize FSD outside of its vehicle fleet.

GM (Cruze) and Waymo (partnered with Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi) can monetize their tech across tens millions of vehicles sold every year.
Tesla is still spinning up its manufacturing capacity, currently aiming for ~500K vehicles produced annually. Unless Tesla partners with other large-scale OEMs (no sign of that), its tech monetisation prospects will remain constrained by its own manufacturing capacity limits.

And that all assumes FSD works, is legally cleared to operate, and liability concerns get ironed out. Lots of IFFs.

a

 

[Knightshade]

Not of Tesla can't monetize FSD outside of its vehicle fleet.

GM (Cruze) and Waymo (partnered with Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi) can monetize their tech across tens millions of vehicles sold every year.
Tesla is still spinning up its manufacturing capacity, currently aiming for ~500K vehicles produced annually. Unless Tesla partners with other large-scale OEMs (no sign of that), its tech monetisation prospects will remain constrained by its own manufacturing capacity limits.

And that all assumes FSD works, is legally cleared to operate, and liability concerns get ironed out. Lots of IFFs.

a

If Tesla got no-lidar FSD fully working, vision/radar only, they'd have no trouble monetizing it- all the folks who wasted billions on lidar solutions that still don't fully work would be banging down their doors begging to license it.


(that is, of course, a very massive if)

 

[1ton]

I just want the car to pick me up when I’m at the mall shopping and it starts to pour.

Also, what’s the price for FSD if you don’t have AP software? I’m assuming the $6k is for new purchase? I just got my (2018 used) car and don’t have it registered on my app to see yet.

 

[Knightshade]

I just want the car to pick me up when I’m at the mall shopping and it starts to pour.

This feature already exists (so long as you're parking less than 150 feet from the pickup spot) but is only available to early access software folks right now- the "finished" version for general release is coming soon (and has been for over 6 months now...)

 

[1ton]

This feature already exists (so long as you're parking less than 150 feet from the pickup spot) but is only available to early access software folks right now- the "finished" version for general release is coming soon (and has been for over 6 months now...)

Curious why it is not rolled out to everyone yet. I assume it was only available to early adopters for BETA testing?

 

[Knightshade]

Curious why it is not rolled out to everyone yet. I assume it was only available to early adopters for BETA testing?

Yup... Elon has said when asked it's not good enough yet for mass deployment so keeps getting pushed back- the few videos showing it working mostly seemed to work fine, but very very slowly- so it's unclear if they're trying to speed it up, or there's cases where it's not working fine that we haven't seen video of.

 

[patrick80132]

Is 6k for the FSD worth with the current available features?

OR

Is it wise to add it later when all the features are available? If so, will it be expensive to add later?

I'm leaning towards waiting. $6000 now but frankly I don't think they can raise the price until it is a proven item.

 

[Austindude]

Elon Musk thinks so, and many others do also.
Is a $400K condo in downtown Seattle worth buying it? Certainly, but not everyone needs one or can afford one.
Is a Model 3 SR a good deal at $35K? I think so. But why aren't my neighbors buying one? They don't think so or they don't need one.

If you think you will need FSD and if you can afford to leave $6K buried until it becomes useable, you should probably buy it now. Elon said he will keep raising the price.

You can really buy a condo in downtown Seattle for $400K? Wow, doubt you could touch one for that in downtown Austin! But your point is well taken.

 

[Leighpaulo]

I'll be holding off until 1). it becomes a reality and 2). until the complete refresh on the S comes out. Be a shame to put down $6k on on a car that someone might sell in the the next X years. *hint* - you don't get your money back on software enabled features.

What makes you say this? Surely if there are 2 identical cars and one comes with FSD already enabled it’s worth more money in the open market right?

 

[MacGreiner]

From past trade in experience. Unless the potential new owner is someone who posts on these forums, the value of software is way undervalued on the general market.

 

[hlin07]

The remaining usage life of the vehicle is also a big factor in this.

Assume 200k lifetime mile on the model 3, and assume FSD becomes available end of next year (Elon was probably smoking a joint when he tweeted end of the year roll out). If you buy FSD today at 6k, you'll likely be driving without FSD features for the first 20k or so miles. That means you paid 6k to drive 180k on FSD, or 6k on 90% of vehicle's life.

As far as increasing price on FSD in the future, common sense says it ain't happening. The only exception is if Elon doesn't want his Robotaxi to come to fruition. Printer companies seller printers at or below cost, they make money on cartridge. Robotaxi will only flourish if enough owners sign up for it, would increasing price on FSD entice owners to sign up? I'm willing to bet if anything, price will drop as long as you agree to sign your car up for Robotaxi similar to the promotions Uber and Lyft run to sign up new drivers.

 

[patrick80132]

Is 6k for the FSD worth with the current available features?

OR

Is it wise to add it later when all the features are available? If so, will it be expensive to add later?

I would hope the FSD would be transferable from one car to another. So if I purchase an M3 and later get a Y it would come with me.

 

[Knightshade]

I would hope the FSD would be transferable from one car to another. So if I purchase an M3 and later get a Y it would come with me.

Nope. It's an option you add to the car, not the owner.