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I've read a lot of this thread (not all) and I still haven't heard anyone mention:
1. Model S/X and Roadster are set up for performance not range. I don't know how many extra miles they could squeeze out if they had an "Eco" button or maybe even optimized the engines and batteries but still worth mentioning
2. I'm not an expert on the powertrain but from what I've heard the inverter on the performance Model S is what gives it the extra punch its known for. So smaller motor and smaller inverter would bring down price....Right?
3. I don't think Tesla will position the Gen. III against the Leaf. All of Tesla's cars to this point have been advertised as quick fast and sexy. Why would they shift to boring and mundane?
That's my evidence and my guess is that the Gen III will have 3 battery options (like the S and X) 30 kwh w/185mi range, 40 kwh w/225mi and 75 kwh w/310mi. I understand they have to cram them into a smaller package but i think Franz and Elon know this going in so they'll design around it. (If possible, again not an expert). I think they'll price them similar to how they've priced their current cars 29,500, 38,000, 50,000 (after tax credit). I'd expect a signature series and a performance version. And with size and weight reductions, I think i'll be faster than the Model S.
Basically I'm making these prediction based on what I've seen from Tesla in the past and what makes sense to me from a business side. Tesla has marketed their cars to this point to people who want the performance that an EV can offer I just don't see them shifting away from that.
1. Model S/X and Roadster are set up for performance not range. I don't know how many extra miles they could squeeze out if they had an "Eco" button or maybe even optimized the engines and batteries but still worth mentioning
2. I'm not an expert on the powertrain but from what I've heard the inverter on the performance Model S is what gives it the extra punch its known for. So smaller motor and smaller inverter would bring down price....Right?
3. I don't think Tesla will position the Gen. III against the Leaf. All of Tesla's cars to this point have been advertised as quick fast and sexy. Why would they shift to boring and mundane?
That's my evidence and my guess is that the Gen III will have 3 battery options (like the S and X) 30 kwh w/185mi range, 40 kwh w/225mi and 75 kwh w/310mi. I understand they have to cram them into a smaller package but i think Franz and Elon know this going in so they'll design around it. (If possible, again not an expert). I think they'll price them similar to how they've priced their current cars 29,500, 38,000, 50,000 (after tax credit). I'd expect a signature series and a performance version. And with size and weight reductions, I think i'll be faster than the Model S.
Basically I'm making these prediction based on what I've seen from Tesla in the past and what makes sense to me from a business side. Tesla has marketed their cars to this point to people who want the performance that an EV can offer I just don't see them shifting away from that.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
There is no way to optimize the batteries for range. I would expect a smaller motor and inverter for the smaller vehicle, but price reduction from downsizing those components would be small. Also, there seems to be stages of power electronics components, so to reach a certain power level they may need to stick with the same size IGBT's for example. To keep production costs down I can see them offering only two battery packs.
gjunky
Trifecta: Solar and both cars are EVs
Agreed, this seems likely as they are only offering the two larger batteries on the Model X.
I can't imagine this car to be that much lighter than the Model S as the bulk of weight is in the batteries (which I know can be smaller if the car itself is lighter). The 75KwH for the top version (mentioned earlier) with a 300+ range and a performance version seem reasonable as well. Hopefully we will get a next generation of cells in there which would lower the weight and/or extend the range. I think 400 miles for the largest size battery would be wonderful. The range went up from the Roadster to the Model S so there is a trend here
Agreed, this seems likely as they are only offering the two larger batteries on the Model X.
I can't imagine this car to be that much lighter than the Model S as the bulk of weight is in the batteries (which I know can be smaller if the car itself is lighter). The 75KwH for the top version (mentioned earlier) with a 300+ range and a performance version seem reasonable as well. Hopefully we will get a next generation of cells in there which would lower the weight and/or extend the range. I think 400 miles for the largest size battery would be wonderful. The range went up from the Roadster to the Model S so there is a trend here
About 20-25% of the weight of the car is the battery.
There is tons of room to make a lighter car than the S. The S is huge. It can be shrunk in every dimension.
If you reduce a box in length from 190" to 178", width from 77.3" to 71" and height from 56.5" to 54" the volume goes down 20%. No reason why those same dimension changes couldn't reduce the weight of the Model S body by 20%.
I you do that to a box and keep the walls the same thickness it will go down in weight by about 12% because the surface goes with the square whereas the volume goes with the cube.
I know they want a mass market car around 30K, but I imagine the vast majority of the people that buy and will be interested in a car around the 30K range do not have enough tax liability to take advantage of the credit. So, someone will look and see that the price says 29,500 and end up paying a lot more.
But being the mass market car, you need to appeal to as many people as possible. More options and choices give you access to larger buying group. Also, Tesla has a low price point to hit at $30K. I expect, like the S, that the smallest pack will be the least popular but will be there so Elon can say he hit the number he has always quoted as the starting price.
I'm going to bet the Gen III sedan follows the Model S marketing plan a lot closer than the Model X.
Not to be a Debbie Downer, but I don't think that the Gen III is going to price that low. Add about $10k to each of those and that will most likely be the price that the Gen III will sell for after the Fed rebate.
The fed rebate probably will have a finite life at 200k vehicles or as collateral damage due to budget negotiations. For GEN III to really have a wide market share it needs to be priced low and have 200+ EPA range. All those battery chemistries we've been reading and debating about for several years have to come to fruition eventually.
Remember Tesla was aiming for a 25% profit margin on Model S sales. It's possible that they'd be able to lower that for Gen III in order to price it more competitively.
If you guess the cells cost about $400 per kWh:
40kWh - $60,000 list, $48,000 target ($16k cells, $32k other)
60kWh - $70,000 list, $56,000 target ($24k cells, $32k other)
85kWh - $80,000 list, $64,000 target ($34k cells, $30k other)
Let's say that they aim for a 20% margin on Gen III models starting at $40k before credit (30, 50, and 70 kWh options):
30kWh - $40,000 list, $33,000 target ($12k cells, $21k other)
50kWh - $50,000 list, $42,000 target ($20k cells, $22k other)
70kWh - $60,000 list, $50,000 target ($28k cells, $22k other)
So, they need to reduce other manufacturing costs by around $10k to hit the ~$30k price point after the tax credit. Might be achievable.
If you guess the cells cost about $400 per kWh:
40kWh - $60,000 list, $48,000 target ($16k cells, $32k other)
60kWh - $70,000 list, $56,000 target ($24k cells, $32k other)
85kWh - $80,000 list, $64,000 target ($34k cells, $30k other)
Let's say that they aim for a 20% margin on Gen III models starting at $40k before credit (30, 50, and 70 kWh options):
30kWh - $40,000 list, $33,000 target ($12k cells, $21k other)
50kWh - $50,000 list, $42,000 target ($20k cells, $22k other)
70kWh - $60,000 list, $50,000 target ($28k cells, $22k other)
So, they need to reduce other manufacturing costs by around $10k to hit the ~$30k price point after the tax credit. Might be achievable.
gjunky
Trifecta: Solar and both cars are EVs
The cells for the GENIII better be much less than $400 per KwH or I don't think this car is going to exist. Elon has spoken about cells coming down, I believe into the $200 per KwH range (sorry, I don't remember the exact number). This would really change your cost breakdown a lot. The cells would be half the price and they could produce the rest of the car at the same cost as the model S. I doubt their manufacturing cost will stay that high though in the volumes they are planning for the GENIII.
Rifleman
Now owns 2 Model S's!!!
Does anyone with a greater knowledge of manufacturing than me have and idea what making the Gen III out of steel instead of aluminum would do to the price? Would the higher weight mandate more batteries to get the desired range, negating any cost savings?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Yes it probably would, as well as hurting performance.
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I think the cells already are. I paid less than that three years ago for non commodity large format lithium cells, delivered to my door from China. Tesla is buying millions of commodity cells, their costs must be much lower.
Aluminum's pretty cheap. $1-2 a pound. A better question is, Why are automakers still making cars out of steel?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
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