JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I don't really want to speculate too much on an open forum at this time. Let's just say I don't see the delays in any positive light.
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X delays to me is just over optimistic assumptions about getting the S line in place and designing the X for production in tandem. They HAVE to show a profit this year and my guess is they are not getting the gross margin's they were expecting so they are delaying some of the investments for X so their quarterly results look a little better.
The Gen III delay is another story and a longer delay tells me there may be a couple problems. My speculations are more of gut feel so ill hold my tongue until more facts come out. The only way it would be really good news is if Tesla intentionally delayed GenIII to give some breakthrough battery technology time to be developed and tested. If that is not the case then the delay is either a resource, investment capital or pessimistic/risky sales estimates. All I know is the longer the delay, the higher the chance a larger manufacture wakes up and copies Telsa's strategy.
The Gen III delay is another story and a longer delay tells me there may be a couple problems. My speculations are more of gut feel so ill hold my tongue until more facts come out. The only way it would be really good news is if Tesla intentionally delayed GenIII to give some breakthrough battery technology time to be developed and tested. If that is not the case then the delay is either a resource, investment capital or pessimistic/risky sales estimates. All I know is the longer the delay, the higher the chance a larger manufacture wakes up and copies Telsa's strategy.
Norbert
TSLA will win
IIRC the assumption had been, until now, end-of-2015 or 2016. (2015 was often considered unrealistic in any case.) To go from that to 2016/2017 is not necessarily a change of more than half a year. So, given the delays in Model S ramp-up, there doesn't have to be a big reason other than that. The advancement of battery technology will probably make a later introduction easier, but that would be perhaps just a positive side-effect in an otherwise unfortunate delay, I guess.
I wonder if it is possible that they are keeping a Gen III super-secret, ready for a big reveal. Seems like Musk and Tesla obviously plan far ahead. In terms of Tesla as a company, I'd almost rather see them just set the X aside for a while and get the Gen III to market asap. But then again part of being able to do a good Gen III is dependent on battery prices going down which won't happen overnight. Can't remember, did they talk much about the X before they announced it last year?
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A glider + wheels + brakes + dashboard + seats + lights, does it really cost that much?
In an interview, Mr. von Holzhausen said the small car, which could be a volume leader for Tesla, is in the early design stages. “It’s still a doodle on a napkin,” he said. During the news conference, he said that the small car would appear in “three to four years.”
Finally found the napkin Mr von Holzhausen was doodling on. Amazed I found it before TEG did. I think it is a knockout:wink:
Finally found the napkin Mr von Holzhausen was doodling on. Amazed I found it before TEG did. I think it is a knockout:wink:
Norbert
TSLA will win
Snowdog
Member
I would lump you in with those who are wildly optimistic. 200 EPA minimum range is pure, pie-eyed wishful thinking IMO.
This is base of their Entry level cars. The most obvious solutions to meeting price reduction goals, is reducing the cost of the most significant item on board: The battery pack. The 7%/annual improvement in battery tech isn't going to change a $60K car into a $30K car, there will need to be serious cost reductions across the board. Even if battery comes in cheaper/KWh, they will likely still reduce packs size.
$29 999 gets you a 35KWh pack good for 125 miles is much more likely. I also expect it will have a steel body.
It is going to be significant challenge to actually build a profitable EV with 100+ mile range, for $30K, doing 200+ mile range moves it from challenging to impossible.
$39,999 is more likely. The average new car price in 2012 was just under $31k and by the time Gen3 is out the average price will be creeping up another thousand or two. I expect it will be competively priced with the BMW 3 series so it will more likely be in the $39,999 to $59,999 range.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
BMWUSA lists the 328i with a starting MSRP of $36,850, and a larger 528i at $47,800. Of course, this base price includes hardly any equipment, and luxury options quickly raise the cost.
So I agree that the BlueStar will likely start at around 40k with a top end of 60k.
The question is what battery capacity and range will this buy in the 2016/17 time frame. A 35-40 kWh battery on the Model S will probably rate somewhere around EPA 140 for the Model S, but a BlueStar will be lighter and have a smaller frontal cross section. My guess is that such a car could earn 160 miles on the EPA cycle, and a bigger 60 kWh pack could earn 240 miles. Figure with battery costs going down, the upgrade from 40 to 60 kWh will go down from 10k to 7-8k, so for a nicely loaded BlueStar, 60 kWh, metallic paint, tech package, I'm going to guess 53-55k incl. fees, minus tax credit.
charliestyr
EVangelist
Elon is still pushing for $30k, and seems to be suggesting that at that price point we'll see 200mi range.
Alongside some "really cool tech" ;-)
Alongside some "really cool tech" ;-)
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
I made a guess of this kind in a post some days ago. Nice to know that I was right. I also think that at least the starting version should cost 30K. Then for more options the price could raise of course.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
He really should avoid over-promising, $30k esp. with 200 miles of range (I assume ideal range) is very aggressive. I was expecting the base Gen III to have 160 miles of ideal range (same as current Model S) with a slightly smaller battery (since the car should be more efficient). Maybe if they keep the current 40kWh base pack the car could get 200 miles of ideal range.
Norbert
TSLA will win
Such a number is probably also a target for Tesla's engineers and others, a challenge for them to meet this goal. 200+ miles range at $35k would still be great, although I'm sure $5k, at this price level, will make a noticeable difference in resulting sales volume. Over time, of course, battery prices will go down further and further.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I'd hedge too, because nobody knows for sure what the inflation rate will be in the next 3-4 years. I don't expect inflation to go beyond the 2-3% range for the foreseeable future, but I'm not enough of an economics expert to say for sure.
Today, a base Model S (40 kWh) is $61,070 including fees, before tax credit, and $53,570 after tax credit.
If hypothetically, Tesla built a 200 mile range EV for $30,000 after tax credit, the initial upfront cost would be: $37.5k for the base car + $1.2k delivery & prep, total of $38.7k before credit. That's still a lot for a car, but taking into account fuel savings, it would be worth it for a lot of drivers. For a hypothetical BlueStar, I would add Metallic Paint (hypothetical +$700 since it is smaller than the S), Tech Package (+$3000, less expensive from greater economies of scale), and Supercharging (+$1500, economies of scale), total of $43,900. Minus the $7500 credit, if it still exists, and that brings the cost down to $36.4k. That's more than I've ever paid for a car, but it's well within my reach. The Model S is something that I could buy, but it would be a huge stretch and arrive only at the cost of putting all my other goals on hold.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I didn't notice it before, but he also mentions some "cool tech" that he can't talk about yet. I wonder what he is referring to (battery related or is it feature related).
Has to be battery tech advances. I've given rides in my MS to co-workers and discussed GEN III. I have the 60kWh and indicated GEN III will have similar range, will be smaller and in the $30k price range. Some of them said they would most likely purchase one and it would be a game changer.
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