Gen III - reservation speculation

[ElSupreme]

IDK, but I am going off of Zeroto60times.com website.

A $27 Subaru WRX will do 0-60 in sub 5 seconds, so an EV really should be able to do better. You need to make a compelling car in order to convince people that EV's are better. Yes, 0-60 is 6s is plenty fast for most people but you have to "convince" most people that EV's are better. In order to do that, you have to make things "better" than ICE equivalents.

A Impreza WRX STI might do sub 5 seconds (with perfect launch, and good turbo spool before launch) with perfect driving. But that car isn't $27k it is $35k. Is good but not great on the inside. And SUCKS down PREMIUM FUEL. And with a direct cost comparison, you are spending way more on the Subaru when you factor in gas. Plus IMO turbo lag in that car is awful, at least it was for 2012 models. I would take my GTI over one in a second, as I don't need AWD.

Honestly anything under 6 seconds is quick. Unless you have been rolling around in a Model S Performance, or Corvette Z06, or 911 constantly for a year or so will a 5.X 0-60 seem slow. Or you aren't actually pushing the car to what it can do.

But as to the original post I would think Gen III reservations go REALLY quickly. With as much exposure as Tesla is getting at the moment. I am sure there will be thousands of reservations in the first 48 hours. But it really depends on how well Tesla publicizes it. I would expect some sort of party (Sig and Roadster owners invited) with a sign up sheet, much like Bonnie did with her X reservation. Then probably a week(end) long reservation block for all Tesla owners. Then an open to the public reservation. I fully expect to put down a reservation on a Gen III as soon as I am able. I expect a lot of Model S owners will feel the same. I bet there are a thousand reservations before it even really opens to the public.

I think 3-5k within 48 hours of a public press release about reservations being open for Gen III. Assuming pricing is ~$45k (~$37k advertised price) or less before income tax rebates.

 

[ipdamages]

Just please don't make it prohibitively expensive. I would rather get a $27k WRX or even a $40k BWM than a $60k - $70k Tesla equivalent. If they can price a performance model, that does 0-60 in around 4s with 250 miles of range, starting at $50 - 55k; I would be all over it. Spec it out to $60k and back to $52.5k after tax incentive is about as high as I will go.

I think that you will find that the Gen 3 is in this range.

Also, a 5.0 0-60 in an EV feels a lot faster because of the low end torque. That said, people read statistics and develop interest to the point that they are willing to test drive a car (unless they get a ride in one first). So having good stats is important.

But as others have said, the Gen 3 is going to very likely have a lot of word-of-mouth - even if the base model has a 0-60 of 6.2, assuming it is priced in the low 30s after incentives. Meeting demand will be like drinking from a firehose.

 

[Grendal]

With as much exposure as Tesla is getting at the moment. I am sure there will be thousands of reservations in the first 48 hours. But it really depends on how well Tesla publicizes it. I would expect some sort of party (Sig and Roadster owners invited) with a sign up sheet, much like Bonnie did with her X reservation. Then probably a week(end) long reservation block for all Tesla owners. Then an open to the public reservation. I fully expect to put down a reservation on a Gen III as soon as I am able. I expect a lot of Model S owners will feel the same. I bet there are a thousand reservations before it even really opens to the public.

I think 3-5k within 48 hours of a public press release about reservations being open for Gen III. Assuming pricing is ~$45k (~$37k advertised price) or less before income tax rebates.

I totally agree with your assessment. That feels about right for the current demand. Also, I reiterate that if Tesla does just 1000 Signatures for the G3 then you can expect them to be completely sold out within the first month. I think Tesla will go for a much higher number of Signatures for the G3.

And maybe Tesla can have two Performance packages: Performance and High Performance. With the basic G3 having a 0-60 of 6 seconds, performance version of 5 seconds and the high performance model getting 4 seconds. Just a thought....

Another thought...How many reservations will be in place before we see the first production car leave the factory?

My guess is over 50K.

 

[Iz]

My guess is over 50K.

That would be quite unprecedented. A large percentage of that group would be more interested in price (~ $35k) & range (~ 200 mi) than 0-60 performance.

 

[DaveT]

But as to the original post I would think Gen III reservations go REALLY quickly. With as much exposure as Tesla is getting at the moment. I am sure there will be thousands of reservations in the first 48 hours. But it really depends on how well Tesla publicizes it. I would expect some sort of party (Sig and Roadster owners invited) with a sign up sheet, much like Bonnie did with her X reservation. Then probably a week(end) long reservation block for all Tesla owners. Then an open to the public reservation. I fully expect to put down a reservation on a Gen III as soon as I am able. I expect a lot of Model S owners will feel the same. I bet there are a thousand reservations before it even really opens to the public.

I think 3-5k within 48 hours of a public press release about reservations being open for Gen III. Assuming pricing is ~$45k (~$37k advertised price) or less before income tax rebates.

Agreed, there's a ton of pent up demand for the Gen III right now. Imagine what it'll be like three years?

If Tesla opens up reservations at the end of 2015 and starts production at the end of 2016, I can see there being 100-200k reservations by production start. (Originally I wrote 50-100k by production start but I think that's way too conservative.)

 

[EVNow]

I think 3-5k within 48 hours of a public press release about reservations being open for Gen III. Assuming pricing is ~$45k (~$37k advertised price) or less before income tax rebates.

To give some perspective, Nissan got 2,700 reservations in 3 hours (and 6.6k in 3 days).

I think Gen 3 reservations will be higher than 3 to 5 k in 2 days. Esp. if the 1/2 price of Model S actually happens ($35k before tax credits).

 

[ElSupreme]

To give some perspective, Nissan got 2,700 reservations in 3 hours (and 6.6k in 3 days).

I think Gen 3 reservations will be higher than 3 to 5 k in 2 days. Esp. if the 1/2 price of Model S actually happens ($35k before tax credits).

Remember that those reservations were only $99. I expect Gen III to be ~$2-5k each. A big barrier to a lot of people. I got one in the first two days, but never got a LEAF.

Some real swag numbers here:

There are roughly 320M people in the USA. About 60% will have a personal car (too young to drive, too old, doesn't need a car ...). About 1/2 of them will buy new cars (the others buy used). And about 2/3 of them could afford a Gen III.

That leaves us with a potential pool of about 63M people. Assume about 2/3 of them have a place to charge an electric car. And about 50% are even open to an electric car (which I think will be generous even in 5 years).

This leaves us with about 21M people as a potential market for Gen III. Now just about every single one of these people already have a car. So assuming the average life of new car for the original owner is ~5 years only about 20% will be looking to buy a car.

That leaves us about 4M people. Assuming that Tesla is known by 1/2 of those remaining people, and that of those 1/2 of them know when reservations begin. You are down to about 1M people. 5k people is 0.5% of that group. I think that is a LOT for the first 48 hours of a reveal.

And we are assuming that Tesla is going to have a ~2 year wait period initially I think a lot of people won't go in immediately, even if they plan on getting one early.

 

[sleepyhead]

I am going in early because I want my tax credit I estimate that 15k Model S will be sold in US in 2013, 20k in 2014 + 5k Model X; 40k units by end of 2014. In 2015 and 2016 I would expect about 50k S&X sold in US in each year for a total of 140k by end of 2016 when Gen 3 arrives. That will only leave about 60k units left for the max tax credit. It might be really close if S&X can sustain demand. That's why you have to be first to reserve.

@El Supreme. The $27k WRX actually does 0-60 faster than the $35k WRX STI. The latter has 6 gears and can only get up to 58 mph in second gear and will require a second shift into 3rd gear; the WRX has only 5 gears. The $27k WRX has 265hp, with 240? lb-ft of torque. It has plenty of power. The key is that Tesla has to show great numbers (0-60, HP, Torque, Top Speed, etc.) just to get people into the door. It doesn't matter that it handles 10x better than a WRX or even a BMW, because you can't quantify that and sell it to the masses. Lots of magazine racers out there.

I still drive my 7second 0-60 car, because it handles great and is so much fun to drive. Not many people buy a car for handling though, and that is why you need to show raw power on the stat sheet - to convince people to test drive it; which will turn into a sale.

 

[kilpatds]

A Impreza WRX STI might do sub 5 seconds (with perfect launch, and good turbo spool before launch) with perfect driving. But that car isn't $27k it is $35k

For the past several years, the WRX has been just as fast 0-60 as the STi. If the STi has an advantage, it's only on tracks where the better brakes are relevant.

Also: since that's my wife's car (STi), it's not that hard to do a sub-5 second 0-60. Thing goes like a roadrunner. Feels faster than the P85 I recently test drove, at least for the first second before you hit the Rev Limiter in 1st. (Ride's no where near as good in the STi, and on a test drive I didn't really feel like testing out the handling well enough to comment fully. The P85 was more neutral than the STi, the STi understeers pretty badly.)

Honestly anything under 6 seconds is quick. Unless you have been rolling around in a Model S Performance, or Corvette Z06, or 911 constantly for a year or so will a 5.X 0-60 seem slow. Or you aren't actually pushing the car to what it can do.

Shoot. My daily driver's still a Corvette, and my wife's is the STi.

Right now I'm hoping for a Gen III that's more in the STi class, to be honest. Sub-5 0-60. Low 13s QM. 300 mile range (so that it will still have a 200 mile range when I'm driving it). And I'd pay (but wince) Model-S class pricing for that. Doing crazy things with the AWD options (IE: improved turn-in and stability control via applying power to the relevant wheels) would be a bonus but not necessary. The main reason I didn't put in an order, is that the Model S was a hair larger than my preference. (It's also a more expensive than my preference, but I don't think that's a reasonable thing to ask for yet)

I'm not sure that going for the 35k price point is a good idea, to be honest. That price point will force a lot of compromises (or way lower profit margins) that will bug targeted shoppers. 50k (200mile, slow version) - 75k (300 mile, fast version) seems more reasonable. And yeah: at that point I'd be trying to sign up instantly.

 

[EVNow]

Remember that those reservations were only $99. I expect Gen III to be ~$2-5k each. A big barrier to a lot of people. I got one in the first two days, but never got a LEAF.

True - but so few were open to EVs.

There are roughly 320M people in the USA. About 60% will have a personal car (too young to drive, too old, doesn't need a car ...). About 1/2 of them will buy new cars (the others buy used). And about 2/3 of them could afford a Gen III.

An easier way to figure this out is to assume 15M new cars sold in the US per annum. I think far fewer than 66 % of those would think of buying a $40k car (average price is $30k).

Anyway, I don't think that matters. # of orders would be a "hockey stick" - with large # of orders in the beginning. If we assume a lot of current plugin owners would reserve quickly, we get a set of some 300k people in couple of years. Then you have a large number of Prius owners waiting by the sideline. How many of those would plunk down $2k to reserve Gen 3 ?

 

[DaveT]

I am going in early because I want my tax credit I estimate that 15k Model S will be sold in US in 2013, 20k in 2014 + 5k Model X; 40k units by end of 2014. In 2015 and 2016 I would expect about 50k S&X sold in US in each year for a total of 140k by end of 2016 when Gen 3 arrives. That will only leave about 60k units left for the max tax credit. It might be really close if S&X can sustain demand. That's why you have to be first to reserve.

Sleepyhead, that's also why I want to be one of the first to reserve Gen III. Got to get the tax credit before it runs out. After Tesla sells 200k units in the U.S. the federal tax credit significantly drops and then soon after that it goes away.

But we might need to get a signature if we really want to be sure to get the tax credit, but the signature will require a bigger deposit. And hopefully it's not sitting there for 2 years when it could be better used invested in TSLA stock.

 

[aronth5]

Agreed, there's a ton of pent up demand for the Gen III right now. Imagine what it'll be like three years?

If Tesla opens up reservations at the end of 2015 and starts production at the end of 2016, I can see there being 100-200k reservations by production start. (Originally I wrote 50-100k by production start but I think that's way too conservative.)

And of course TMC members should get special consideration especially anyone who joined in 2010 or before:wink: Seriously it is going to be nuts trying to get an early delivery unless you order a Sig.

 

[igotzzoom]

Don't get me wrong, I'd love a sub 5-second 0-60 as much as anyone. But if you start benchmarking like 4.0 0-60 and 300 miles range, then the price is creeping back up into Model S territory, which kind of defeats the purpose of the Gen-III in the first place. I'm not saying my Sonata is all that, but with a rated 0-60 of between 6.2 and 6.5, it's plenty quick for me, and I imagine for the majority of potential buyers, 6 flat would be more than quick enough. Sure, offer a performance upgrade for those willing to pay, but I don't think it's necessary to make a sub 5-second "base" model.

In terms of a reservation deposit, I think the most I'd rationally be willing to put down is about $2,000. Some might be willing to cough up $3,500 for a "signature" limited-edition first run model. I'd like to be one of the "first" to have a Gen-III, but not the point where the finances start getting irrational.

 

[Kevin Harney]

If they are targeting the BMW the sport edition needs to be at least sub 4.0 and the base model should be sub 5.5. I think this is totally doable and the new Roadster eeds to compete with the Veyron and get sub 2.5.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

If all it gets is 0-60 in 6.0s, then count me out. The "entry" level 3 series (not counting crappy 320) 328 does this in 5.5s and the 335 in 4.6s. If you want to get people away from ICE and into EV's you need to build "better" cars; as in faster, quieter, more reliable, better torque, etc. The base model has to have at least 260 hp and 280 lb-ft of toque. 0-60 has to stay under 5.5s. The performance model should have no trouble competing with model s, since it is smaller. 0-60 in 4s.

In order to get people on board, you need to show that EV technology is superior to ICE. You can't build cars that are slower than ICE and cost more than ICE. Gen 3 has to be in every aspect better than a 3-series for a similar price; and significantly cheaper than a 3-series when it comes to TCO.

Cars I have driven: Nissan Sunny, Nissan Micra, Mercury Sable, Honda Civic LX, Toyota Prius, Kia Rio.

Thank you for shortening the wait.

More seriously, I would exoect that to minimize cost they'd be willing to release a base model with a downsized motor and inverter and possibly cell mix that would have "slow" acceleration, and then offer higher performance at a higher price. 7.5s EV-stylee would be more than good enough to attract mass market buyers and then the performance upgrades from there can pull in the Beemer drivers.

 

[Kevin Harney]

They are NOT targeting Nissan, Honda and Toyota. They are targeting BMW, Audi and Mercedes. HUGE difference.

 

[Grendal]

I think it will be somewhere in the middle of all the speculation and the numbers for the Model S make sense for the Gen III. Base level is 5.9-ish, larger pack is 5-ish, and performance is low 4's. That leaves sub 4 for the new Roadster and sub 3 for the Performance Roadster.

That makes sense to me and it also makes a lot of strategic sense for Tesla.

Gen III will be a family car so you can't go too crazy. You don't want to give whiplash to your children

 

[kilpatds]

To change the world, they have to eventually target Honda and Toyota. The only question is "when" (and "will it still be necessary to target them by the time they get there")

I personally hope that the Gen III is aiming more for the M3 than the Prius. That's my preference, see prior references to "The Homer" for a good opinion on how much credence Tesla should give my preference. But that's the GenIII I'm holding out for. If that's not the GenIII they build, I'm not sure what I'll personally do: 100k is too much money to spend on a car that's not exactly what you want, and the Model S is not exactly what I want (too big).

Tesla has to figure out the right balance of "using high margin cars to pay for designing lower margin cars", "avoiding death from success", and "expanding from a niche player to a volume player". Maybe I'm wrong, and that path is to go straight from a 70-100k Mercedes S-class / BMW 5-series / Audi A8 to a 30k honda accord. My feeling is that it's not, that there should be a mid-step in there through a BMW 3-series.

Part of that may be my personal desires, but I also think that it's important from an expectations perspective. There are a lot of "common features" that the Tesla doesn't have... One way of handling that is to go after them, paying the "table stakes" for the market. That's expensive. IMHO, a better approach is to knowingly ignore many of them. This is a disruptive technology: sell people on that. You're not doing things the way everyone else did, and that means that you don't get all of the normal features. Instead, you get [thing that's different, harder to compare, but better in some way].

As an example, current "state of the art" for cabin controls are vast fields of dedicated dials and knobs. The Tesla model S replaced that with an embedded tablet PC. State of the art is a 7-gear automatic. Tesla instead has a one-speed that's by definition always in the right gear. State of the art involves a limited slip differential. The tesla has a really low CG so that you get excellent handling anyway. State of the Art navigation includes a birds-eye 3d view with north always being up: for the Tesla, you've got the display next to the speedometer.

State of the art reliability is excellent: I don't have metrics to back this but from these forums I'd say I don't think the Tesla is as reliable yet. But they've instead gone for the disruptive approach: take the "time" costs out of getting your car fixed via Rangers/improved service/loaners. Take out the time costs of filling up and/or most routine maintenance as part of the core features of the car.

The point that I'm getting at is that the Tesla is going to not be feature compatible with comparably expensive cars for quite a long time. They should try and arrange their strategy so they don't need to be... which means spending a bit more time at the higher end of the market, where the expected features they're skimping on to keep a semi-realistic price point are still on the sillier side (adaptive cruise control, park assist) instead of having to skimp on features like "power seats" or "air conditioning" to make a 30k price point with acceptable profit margin.

And at that 50-80k price point, the expected features are things like "performance", which we know Tesla can do. Well.

 

[ipdamages]

I think it will be somewhere in the middle of all the speculation and the numbers for the Model S make sense for the Gen III. Base level is 5.9-ish, larger pack is 5-ish, and performance is low 4's. That leaves sub 4 for the new Roadster and sub 3 for the Performance Roadster.

That makes sense to me and it also makes a lot of strategic sense for Tesla.

Gen III will be a family car so you can't go too crazy. You don't want to give whiplash to your children

I generally agree with Grendal - again.

In order to get to the low price point target, they will have to make some compromises. So I wouldn't get too caught up in what the base model does or doesn't do. If you want a car that goes low 4s for 0-60 and has bells and whistles, then get the Perf with options, and pay for it ($55K-$60K after incentives?). If you want a mass market car that will displace low end A4 and 3-series ICEs, then 5.9 or even a little slower will be fine. With the low end torque, it will still jump off the line like no other $30,000* car. And the A4 and 3-series aren't $30K.

The 2013 A4 has an MSRP of $32.5K-$49K (2013 Audi A4 Reviews, Pictures and Prices | U.S. News Best Cars)

The 2013 3-series has an MSRP of $37K-$69K (2013 BMW 3-Series Reviews, Pictures and Prices | U.S. News Best Cars)

And you know those aren't coming down in price between now and 4Q2016, so a 2017 3-series is almost surely going to start at a price over $40K. As a result, if they can get the price way down there, they don't need to be pocket rockets to sell cars. As I understand it, they aren't trying to compete with Scion or Subaru - though if I was 25 years old and only had $28K to spend, I would consider a BRZ! 2013 Subaru BRZ Review: It's Thinker Than You Fast It Is | Rumble Seat by Dan Neil - WSJ.com

 

[Kevin Harney]

All good points and I agree. But I want the gadgets too LOL