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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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When Daimler says batteries they mean battery packs not battery cells.

They are investing in battery pack lines in 6 locations around the world.

They are not investing in producing battery cells anywhere around the world. In fact they just sold a small battery cell production facility they had in Germany.

They are planning to buy battery cells on the open market like everyone else.

Thats correct and sorry for not being precise.

I believe its clearly the more important part to build the pacs although there is IP in the batteries as well and without supply your packing line will just be an investment that does not pay back ...... Packing makes a difference though however they will tumble in the same issue that has been mentioned: Battery cell production is constrained and it looks like that will continue.

Can't imagine that they don't factor this in and try to guarantee the cells but still wait to hear from whom.
 
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Yes, and micro-managing is what happens when someone keeps underperforming their own revised-revised-revised projections.

Do you rather have all of us spend countless hours trying to dissect what our management is trying to communicate to us?

But if we didn't do that, what would we do? We need something to debate to help kill the time while waiting for our Model S/X/3 or Power Wall and what better vehicle than Tesla management and the corresponding financials. One thing I've definitely seen from watching the board for that last 6 years is that we really, really, really love numbers and getting to dissect, theorize and debate over them is our heaven. Whether it's the horse power of a Model S, the range of a Model 3, sales numbers in Norway, the difference between 1.9 vs 2.1 second 0 to 60, production vs deliveries, or the gigawatts in a gigafactory, throwing any numbers into a post is a surefire way to provoke 5 pages of discussion. And don't even let me get started on VIN numbers. Fortunately, financials have lots and lots of numbers, oodles of numbers, worthy of hundreds of pages of discussion. Hence these threads. If we didn't have these things to debate endlessly, this site would become boring, the level of interest in Tesla would drop, therefore sales would plummet, and the death spiral would begin.

But seriously, do other companies all give out the level of detail that investors would like to have or are we just picking on Tesla because we are heavily involved (financially and emotionally)? I honestly don't know because I haven't spent nearly so much time pondering the inner details of other companies, but my guess would be that no matter what company you look at there will be additional information and clarification that you'd like to have. We just have to suck it up, Buttercup, and make our own smart or stupid investment decisions based on what we've got.

But if the SEC would just turn away for a couple minutes and let Elon tell us "Next month would probably be a really good time to buy as much as you can" vs "You may want to hold off for a couple months" vs "We are so screwed, you might want to consider getting out for now and coming back later", that would make this all a lot easier. Oh well.
 
Yes, and micro-managing is what happens when someone keeps underperforming their own revised-revised-revised projections.

Do you rather have all of us spend countless hours trying to dissect what our management is trying to communicate to us?


They only revised 2 times their own projections now. Once in November, second end of 2017.
Since then, they kept the same projections so ...
 
Hey Coal is good for electric cars. Cheap electricity. Trump is fairly single minded in this stuff, its all about the jobs. It has nothing to do with hurting Tesla. If solar tariffs hurt jobs, I promise they will go away. My guess is that they are a bargaining chip. You can have a bargaining chip if you are unwilling to actually use it. I mean washing machines and solar. Mexico and China. There are many many products from many many countries, why those? Trump either hates Tesla and Solar or Clean clothes or both. Time will tell.

maybe koch brothers is larger than life in my brain, but i worry that solar tariffs will hurt jobs but they will do it anyway. cannot admit there is any solution other than fossil. as for tesla, i'm super impressed with something i heard the other day. rocklin (cali) superchargers before recent expansion was achieving 84% off-grid. the disruption isn't just trucking...
 
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Great find, but this chart proves my point. For 2018, Sans China and Panasonic leaves 21GWh and Panasonic which is mostly Tesla is at 40GWh. By 2020, Its 73GWh for all besides Panasonic, which is 65KWh (which is probably low by 35GWh). 73GWh is about a million long range EVs, split between 120 models. So Tesla is going to sell a million vehicles and the rest are going to sell a million vehicles.

A chunk of the CATL capacity will go to support European OE's (assuming their IPO goes through). The chart shows where the company is based, not where the batteries are going. But yes, China is clearly leading the charge with respect to near term EV adoption.

NorthVolt doesn't plan on hitting 32 GWh until 2026 not 2022. And I think that is optimistic.

That table is interesting, but could an not be correct / complete.

Yes, the numbers are not definitive, just estimates. Accuracy will decline as the forecast period extends. The 2018 and 2019 estimates seem pretty reasonable. I merely put it out there to frame the battery capacity trend - there is significant investment in battery capacity any way you slice it and that should factor into the competitive equation.
 
Mod here: I moved a lot of posts into a new thread discussing General Motors mostly. Many were bordering on snippiness. You can continue the conversation there, or not.

I moved a few others to Politics quarantine (yes, the real quarantine... not even the market politics thread). That is what happens when the soi disant discussion devolves to partisan shots.
 
Mod here: I moved a lot of posts into a new thread discussing General Motors mostly. Many were bordering on snippiness. You can continue the conversation there, or not.

I moved a few others to Politics quarantine (yes, the real quarantine... not even the market politics thread). That is what happens when the soi disant discussion devolves to partisan shots.

Damn, I got busted twice in the same day. Sorry grr, and thanks for efforts with this unruly bunch. Which is usually me apparently.
 
Hey Coal is good for electric cars. Cheap electricity.
This is quite false. Electricity is plenty cheap without coal, and coal simply gives those opposed to EV's another talking point about the "dirty power grid", even though the grid is mostly not powered by coal. Coal can't go away fast enough for a number of reasons. Any entity trying to promote coal is doing a disservice to humanity on a number of levels.
 
Great info. It appears all OEM's are securing their battery needs. Will there be enough demand for all the batteries? Tesla seems to be currently using heroic means to stimulate demand on on S and X.

H-E-R-O-I-C !!!!

If only Tesla would use the low cost SuperBowl / Olympics / Car Magazine/ Fashion Magazine & Rebates like other luxury car companies they would save hundreds of millions & maybe the S & X would be top selling $80k plus vehicles.

Oh wait...
 
We need an 8-K to explain Friday’s 8-K, which literally contradicted what Elon said on Wednesday, which contradicted what he said in November.

I didn’t read it that way at all.

To me the follow up was a clarification on what was the pack capacity between now and when the automated lines are up and running. Which Elon didn’t really address on Wednesday.
 
I'm not supposed to care about how many cars Tesla will produce in the coming year?!

I'm getting really tired of this "just believe" stuff. Tesla is not a charity. It would not have been where it is today without capital from those some of you look down upon with nonsense like "armchair quarterbacks" that "crunch numbers" and "make money off of others' hard work." Shareholders are the owners of the company and we should encourage more shareholder participation across Corporate America instead of index funds voting for anything any management ever wants. Shareholders are responsible for keeping management pay in check. Shareholders are responsible for holding management accountable. We can't flamethrow our way to next five Gigafactories.

Elon gives lots and lots of caveats in his discussions. The 8 & 10-K list all sorts of risk factors on why they may not hit guidance.

Telsa’s track record for producing EVs is far and above any other company in existence.

Tesla’s track record for producing EVs tends to initially lag it’s internal and external guidance.
 
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