Taking North Volt aspirations with a pound of salt is dead right IMO. I'd only add as further support of that view, that NV doesn't have a partner like Panasonic with proven and industry leading manufacturing capabilities. For all Teslas engineering brilliance, innovation and work ethic, I don't believe they could have reached 35GWh nearly five years after breaking ground on GF1 absent Panasonic's strengths.
Grading of GF1 site began June of 2014, so if they reach 35GWh by end of this year, that milestone would have taken them 4 1/2 years.
I agree with the total premise, but if some company with deep pockets was motivated, they could accelerate things by dumping massive amounts of money and building multiple factories at the same time. For instance, they could lease a very large building and start building out custom equipment and then just move it once the mega factory is built. With enough money they could accelerate things though that wouldn't exactly help the cost side of the equation, only the supply side. No company would do this because it would be insane and stupid.
I hate to keep harping on this, but some 40 automakers are coming out with 1-20 vehicles in the next 22 months. If each averages 50KWh packs and its 100 total vehicles and each is 20,000 for 2020-2021. That is 100GWh for what amounts to less then 1/2 the production for Model S on average for each model. All these things cannot be true without a 100GWh or battery capacity:
1) Competition is coming with a large and diverse numbers of models
2) Competition is going to have better cars because they are so innovative as shown by 100 years of tiny incremental improvements
3) Competition is experienced with manufacturing so they will build massive numbers of cars in months not years.
4) Competition is going to sell the same number of ICEv and then sell EVs only to people who would have bought a Tesla.
None of the above is even possible because there hasnt been any major planning or serious investment to accomplish that, though some has been announced. There is not a magical 100GWh factory out there waiting to spin up. I am not saying BMW and Daimler cannot innovate, I am saying that they wont because they dont believe its necessary, because if they did believe it, it would be happening. These are massively powerful companies with lots of money and smarts and if they wanted to do something they could. They only improve things incrementally because that is the cost effective thing to do and they only do the minimum they have to do to assure higher profits. They have smart people and they can hire smarter people, but they dont want to. Its not a lack of ability its a lack of will. Elon does not have some massive ability that no one else has, he has a massive will that is undeniable and he is on a mission that people have rallied around. I can assure you if the mission was to make the best ICEv, he wouldnt have so many people jumping on board. I know this is a fact because Elon cannot do every job at Tesla or SpaceX and he must will it into happening. This is why the goals are always so aspirational. Its why people want to work there and they will work harder then they would otherwise. Its why some people become burned out there and move on to kushier jobs and having children, I can totally understand that. The main difference between the old guard of the auto world and the new guard is the will to do what must be done. Even though Tesla and Elon are starting to force their hands a bit, they are still far from making the types of moves required for their long term survival. They have enough cash and enough government support to last decades, but they have peaked and its all down hill from here.
What could be true:
About half the planned vehicles will ever see the light of day. About half of those will be late by 1-5 years. Of those that make it by 2020, only a few will be built in quantities that would be considered something other then compliance cars. So about 10GWh of cars by 2020, which roughly matches supply. This is about the total for Model S/X production last year. Having stated all this, I do believe that Chinese manufacturers will do at least that much in 2020 in the Chinese market and battery supplies also are inline with that. Beyond 2020, I see all the major manufactures competing mostly in China and some of that capability bleeding into the other major auto markets, but the real battle ground will be China. This is mostly due to how serious the government is there about moving away from dirty fuels. This could also be a tremendous market for stationery power due to the massive amounts of solar and wind?? being deployed there. In ten years or less, China could be a trillion dollar market for EVs and storage. Can Tesla get a good chunk of that?
