2virgule5
Member
It seems realistic that they are doing their best to align cell production to its use in packs (either TE or M3 pack), with not more than say a couple of week of cell stock, so I would not expect the 2 numbers to be very different anyway.Do you expect GF1 production to reach 35 GWh/year at the cell level by any definition?
There won't be any cell made for the Semi in 2018, apart maybe for few more test mules.The revised M3 ramp means much less need than 35GWh, and even if TE is finally ramping up it will take a while for it to reach the level of use we currently have in Tesla cars.
So the only reason I would vote yes is with definition a) above, that is they may reach peak production that would equate to 35GWh towards the end of the year. But then again it would only make sense if they can produce products using these cells in a timely manner, so to me it is more a consequence of the capabilities of rest of the production lines.
Now there is another possibility that I haven't though about until recently: maybe some of the next bottlenecks in 2018 (for M3 and the rest) are also at the cell level, hence maybe the push for hire in GF we've seen few days ago as been one of the contributing factor.