It's because the invites that went out are only so they can say without it being a COMPLETE lie that they started non-insider customer deliveries in 2017. It's a PR/wall street gambit, nothing more.
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Grumpiness and off topic discussion from the configuration thread
- Thread starter run-the-joules
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It's because the invites that went out are only so they can say without it being a COMPLETE lie that they started non-insider customer deliveries in 2017. It's a PR/wall street gambit, nothing more.
ElecFan
Member
Which is important with all the eyes of the (nay sayers) world focussed on them.
As an investor, a reservation holder, and a cynical jerk, I'd rather have them be forthcoming and honest about the status than having them pull BS like this to skate by on technicalities.
ccutrer
Active Member
While there is no evidence to the contrary, do you have insider information that this is actually their intent? If not, please qualify such assertions with "I think", or "probably". Stating it as fact is likely to cause many forum members to label you as a troll/short, which does not improve the chances of a productive conversation.
McHoffa
CyberOwners
Bets on December deliveries? I'm betting around 500 or so, or 1000-1200 for the quarter, not "thousands per week" by the end of December that Elon referred to on the last call.
I've very quickly turned from ultimate optimist (I told everyone for the past 18 months that I was sure I'd have my car this year) to cynic in the past couple months. Still excited, but not "I want my invitation NOW!" excited... I can wait, especially is the tax credit is killed off completely.
In the absence of evidence to the contrary, it's the logical conclusion to draw. Troll… maybe. Short… definitely not.
I think those numbers sound about right. I'd kill a man in an alley to get my invite now, because my lust for the car hasn't changed, but every day I'm less certain I'm actually going to get my "First Production" before the window they're currently claiming for AWD.
Ironically, although masquerading as a potential Model 3 customer, the guy who initially made this suggestion on this thread a few pages back under the handle @beachbum77 IS a prominent TSLA short seller.
His name is Donn Bailey, and he has published 44 anti-Tesla articles in just the past 7 months on Seeking Alpha. According to his disclaimer on Seeking Alpha he is short Tesla (through stock options).
I haven't checked but doubt any other Seeking Alpha TSLA author has been so prolific in the past few months -- in any case he has authored so many anti-Tesla articles that he is the top author on all of Seeking Alpha for "short ideas."
Big surprise that he doesn't proudly link his Seeking Alpha articles and short position in his TMC signature.
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but Elon referred to production, not deliveries. It's believed by many that deliveries lag behind production by a week or two. So, it's entirely possible to only deliver 500 this month and still hit 1000+ weekly production rate. Once they flip the switch on the part of the battery line that was the bottleneck, they will pretty much be there.
It is too soon to rush to that judgement. If we get a few more tranches of non-employee orders in December, then it is NOT a stunt, it is a transition from employees to regular customers. We all know it is going slower than we'd like, and I'm sure nobody feels that pain worse then Tesla management and employees. I urge patience and "holiday spirit"... not venom and suspicion.
I'm sure they're comforted by the fact that they can get a car if they want one. Patience and holiday spirit don't make my commute any less awful… but a Model 3 could.
The fact that they haven't sent out more invites in the last two weeks tell me everything I need to know: They're doing a few for publicity/PR purposes and no other non-insiders/friends/family will get their car until a few weeks into January.
I do not know what business you are in, but if you've ever been in a really tough delivery or scale-up program that is encountering challenges and running behind, you will know that a new car is almost no consolation vs. the daily stress and the tough climb.
I've been there , I've done the dance, and I survived. I know damned well they don't care about the car for themselves but I'm bitter and cynical and I'm going to take it out on somebody
That's a healthier attitude than I have. I know within my heart that the Q1 delivery estimate they're giving now is complete crap but I don't have the spine to say "screw it" and buy something else, so I'm stuck waiting like they know we mostly will.
Shame I failed at talking myself into buying a Model S, would have been a much less stressful end to this BS.
ccutrer
Active Member
As far as I'm concerned, the Model 3 rollout to this point has still been better than the Model X. If they deliver a few thousand cars in January, and then halt production for two months for a recall and rework, and a large number of cars sit for months waiting for a rework, and you're pretty much guaranteed a service center trip or three in your first year of ownership.... at that point I'll finally agree that yeah, they botched the Model 3 rollout as bad as the Model X rollout, and I doubt that Tesla will ever learn.
Of course, I'm at the other end of that with an early production Model X (but not quite early enough to have sat at the factory for months - I just had to wait on all that to happen), and I couldn't be happier with it. A bit of retrospective, and I realize several months of waiting and anxiety over build quality really wasn't as bad as it seemed when I was in it. Heck, the very last "omg how could Tesla deliver a car with X problem?!" was finally resolved last month, nearly 18 months after delivery.
Of course, I'm at the other end of that with an early production Model X (but not quite early enough to have sat at the factory for months - I just had to wait on all that to happen), and I couldn't be happier with it. A bit of retrospective, and I realize several months of waiting and anxiety over build quality really wasn't as bad as it seemed when I was in it. Heck, the very last "omg how could Tesla deliver a car with X problem?!" was finally resolved last month, nearly 18 months after delivery.
Ironically, although masquerading as a potential Model 3 customer, the guy who initially made this suggestion on this thread a few pages back under the handle @beachbum77 IS a prominent TSLA short seller.
His name is Donn Bailey, and he has published 44 anti-Tesla articles in just the past 7 months on Seeking Alpha. According to his disclaimer on Seeking Alpha he is short Tesla (through stock options).
I haven't checked but doubt any other Seeking Alpha TSLA author has been so prolific in the past few months -- in any case he has authored so many anti-Tesla articles that he is the top author on all of Seeking Alpha for "short ideas."
Big surprise that he doesn't proudly link his Seeking Alpha articles and short position in his TMC signature.
There is a big difference between not liking a stock price, and not liking a company. They do not go hand in hand.
I firmly believe Tesla will endure. (I believe they are going to go through a BK reorg in near future). Their current shareholders, not so much. My articles are clearly framed as warnings to investors. I certainly do not tell anyone not to buy the products, which I happen to like.
You point out a clear and obvious problem. Too many people take criticism of Tesla the investment as a criticism of the products. Certainly not true in my case. I did have a Model 3 reservation until I saw the specs and pricing. Now I am waiting for a 2016 or 2017 lease return Model S. Tesla has shown to have just as much depreciation as most other cars in the first 24 months. If you look at the mileage on used Tesla Model S, these cars are not driven much. That makes them a perfect lease return at a substantial discount.
As far as linking my articles, why would I? I am not here on this site to talk about the stock. This is a website about the cars most of all. Or at least this is where I have learned a lot about them. I spend an equal amount of time on the Mercedes-owner websites.
Lots of great info gets shared here. Owner opinions have convinced me that a used Model S would be a better car for me than a new Volt or Bolt or other smaller car. After test driving all of them, I prefer the size and feel of the Model S. My plans for my property outside Jacksonville include a small solar farm to run the house and power as many devices as possible. Adding a BEV would be a logical choice. Here, I cannot sell excess power back to the utility so it is use it or lose it. No point in wasting it.
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Thank you for confirming that you have no intention of buying the Model 3:
As I said, a short seller masquerading as a Model 3 customer.
As I said, a short seller masquerading as a Model 3 customer.
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If you go back over the months you will find I had a Model 3 reservation. I never felt compelled to share I had canceled before. I did not want to influence anyone else's decision. Despite knowing there have been over 60,000 cancellations no one seems eager to share that info on any Tesla site. So neither did I. I own a Chevy truck and two Mercedes. I own GM stock but not Daimler. Unlike most investors, you seem unable to separate the company and its stock price from the products. If you are indeed an investor, you need to learn the difference.
I have owned many GM vehicles both personally and in my businesses. That does not automatically mean I owned the stock the entire time or always agreed with what management was doing. Building a great product does not entitle anyone to a free pass on how they conduct business. Thinking otherwise as you seem to, is a reckless way to invest your money.
You find my articles about Tesla on SA because at this time I see TSLA as the most over-valued stock on the NASDAQ. So much so, that it lead me to stop commenting on SA and to start writing about my concerns. Until that changes, you will continue to read my articles warning investors about this pricing.
Sigh.
I think I made my point above (confirmed by your posts) and this is getting OT.
As an SF Bay Area Model S owner and line waiter, I hope to be in the next group of folks invited to configure, which is the point of this thread.
Best of luck with your short and your Seeking Alpha career.
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Thanks. How do you plan to configure your Model 3? Would you order now or postpone for AWD or standard battery?
You just pointed to what makes every other carmaker envious. Tesla owners and prospective buyers are seemingly the most patient and forgiving buyers on the planet. I credit that to the charisma and "branding" of Elon Musk as Planet Earth's savior. His following is nothing short of amazing. That is certainly something that will be studied and tried to be copied in the future by other company leaders.I can't argue with you there
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