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Guesstimate Delivery

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by B0B0, Apr 6, 2016.

  1. B0B0

    B0B0 Member

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    Location:
    Charleston, SC
    What are your thoughts on delivery timelines for those who ordered in the following ranges:

    1. 100k range
    2. 200k
    3. 250k
    4. 300k+
    I ordered around noon EST on April 2 (Saturday). So likely around 220-40 range. I shouldn't have waited to her my wife's approval and ordered opening night!!

    Thanks
    Andrew
     
  2. Kimad06

    Kimad06 Member

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    I don't think you have to worry. You will be invited to configure based on reservation date, then your delivery date is determined by the options, where you live, etc. the closer to 3/31 you ordered, the better. I say that the only people getting their cars in 2017 will be employees and existing owners. All others will most likely wait till 2018/2019--especially if they are going with a stripped version.
     
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  3. ucmndd

    ucmndd Member

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    I think this is a meaningless query without considering region. That poor guy who was "#1" in Australia is going to get his car long after number 200k in the US.
     
  4. vjason

    vjason Member

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    My guess: Not soon enough.

    You don't log ~300K preorders @ $1000 each because people want to wait, you do so because they want it as so as possible.

    Next fall/winter will be interesting to say the least......
     
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  5. B0B0

    B0B0 Member

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    Thanks, it will be interesting to see how things pan out. I am located in Charleston, essentially opposite coast from Tesla!

    I think I have a better chance of getting a raise at work and buying an S!

    I would probably be in the 42-46 range depending on the cost of the upgrades.
     
  6. Justmurr

    Justmurr Member

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    PA
    I view myself in the same range with optioning...42 to 45...

    I was 45th in line by my unofficial count on the 31st on the east coast... I am hopeful to take delivery may-june 2018...
     
  7. igotzzoom

    igotzzoom Member

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    Laguna Hills, CA
    I ordered mine around 9:15 on 3/31. And I live in California. I'm not a current owner. I'm realistically expecting to get mine almost exactly two years from now (March/April 2018). I'm fine with that.
     
  8. Tiberius

    Tiberius Member

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    SoCal
    I preordered right as Elon sent out the 198k tweet. I'm hoping to take delivery around this time 2018. Would be annoyed if I didn't have it by fall.
     
  9. AU1985

    AU1985 Member

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    I ordered mine early Sunday...I knew about the Tesla/model S but never figured it was in my budget...I really didn't keep up with Tesla in the news and then I heard about the Model 3 and watched Elon's presentation on YouTube and preordered right after that...I am holding out hope I will get mine early summer 2018
     
  10. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 918 Hybrid

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    Just after the tax credit runs out in 2019

    federal-credit-phaseout-estimation-chart-768x209.png
     
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  11. MostlyStock

    MostlyStock Member

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    #11 MostlyStock, Apr 6, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2016
    I worked up some numbers. I'm guessing a Model 3 line will be added to Fremont with the capability of producing 2,000-8,000 cars a week. This is assuming a quick ramp up and no issues. I think 4,000 cars a week is most likely.

    2,000 cars a week
    Quarter Production Total
    Q4 2017 10,000 10,000
    Q1 2018 21,400 31,400
    Q2 2018 26,000 57,400
    Q3 2018 26,000 83,400
    Q4 2018 26,000 109,400
    Q1 2019 26,000 135,400
    Q2 2019 26,000 161,400
    Q3 2019 26,000 187,400
    Q4 2019 26,000 213,400
    Q1 2020 26,000 239,400
    Q2 2020 26,000 265,400
    Q3 2020 26,000 291,400
    Q4 2020 26,000 317,400
    Q1 2021 26,000 343,400
    Q2 2021 26,000 369,400

    4,000 cars a week
    Quarter Production Total
    Q4 2017 10,000 10,000
    Q1 2018 31,400 41,400
    Q2 2018 52,000 93,400
    Q3 2018 52,000 145,400
    Q4 2018 52,000 197,400
    Q1 2019 52,000 249,400
    Q2 2019 52,000 301,400
    Q3 2019 52,000 353,400

    8,000 cars a week
    Quarter Production Total
    Q4 2017 10,000 10,000
    Q1 2018 36,200 46,200
    Q2 2018 104,000 150,200
    Q3 2018 104,000 254,200
    Q4 2018 104,000 358,200
     
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  12. Bimbels

    Bimbels GoldMember

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    Newport, RI
    Are you an owner? (Sorry in my phone, don't see signatures.) if not, I would reset my expectations if I were you. I'm an owner (east coast) who ordered 8-9 minutes after the open on the 31st and I expect my car then. And that's being hopeful there are no issues.

    There is zero chance they will have production capability of 200k cars in the first 6 months after launch.
     
  13. Cebe

    Cebe Member

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    I agree that they can't hit the ground running that fast. My guess, though I'd love to be wrong in the "you guessed too low" way:

    2017 and 2018Q1: Total 5000
    2018Q2: ~1000/week. ~10,000 for the quarter, total ~15,000.
    2018Q3: ~1000/week. ~15,000 for the quarter, total ~30,000.
    2018Q4: ~2000/week. ~25,000 for the quarter, total ~55,000.
    Total 2017 & 2018 55,000.

    2019Q1: ~3000/week. ~40,000 for the quarter, total ~95,000
    2019Q2: ~3000/week ~40,000 for the quarter, total ~135,000
    2019Q3: ~4000/week ~50,000 for the quarter, total ~185,000
    2019Q4: ~4000/week ~55,000 for the quarter, total ~240,000
    Total 2019 185,000

    2020Q1: ~5000/week ~65,000 for the quarter, total 305,000
    2020Q2: ~5000/week ~70,000 for the quarter, total 375,000
    2020Q3: ~6000/week ~80,000 for the quarter, total 455,000
    2020Q4: ~6000/week ~80,000 for the quarter, total 535,000
    Total 2020: 295,000

    So, I'd say people that have reserved towards the end of the tweets, assuming 50% of the reservations order, are looking at mid 2019.
     
  14. Robbit

    Robbit Member

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    Harrisburg, PA
    I wonder when the first Model 3s will hit the east coast of the US. My guess is the start of Q1 2018. These would likely be fully loaded performance models ordered by people who waited in line outside stores.
     
  15. nime01

    nime01 Member

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    Ordered in store and was first in line, hope to get my new Model 3 by Q2 2018.
     
  16. AZ Desert Driver

    AZ Desert Driver Genesis - The Beginning - MS60D in its nest

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    I got my order in at 7:43 PDT on 3/31 ---slightly before the reveal when Elon said 115,000. I'm guessing I'm about number 50,000 and in the Fremont first delivery zone. If I load options, and don't have previous ownership....can anyone help me figure out these charts and approximate when I get production invitation?
     

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