Half of all new cars will be electric

[Vger]

What did you expect?

Lower maintenance = job killer

But not every job killed is a bad thing. See: Parable of the broken window

About that... It is interesting to see how Tesla is apparently moving to create a serious upgrade market for the Roadster. I think they may be on to something. If they keep people interested in upgrading a car that needs little maintenance, they can recapture the lost maintenance revenue in another form, one that increases rather than decreases customer satisfaction and brand loyalty!! More happy customers = more Tesla employees = job creation! Now that is thinking different, to quote the dear departed Mr. Jobs himself! Shhh, don't tell Bob Lutz. :wink:

 

[Jaff]

Fantastic vista Yggdrasill, thanks for posting this pic!

Looks like some challenging routes for the Roadster (and Model S)...

And then there are of course the benefits of living in stunning nature. I took this picture a couple of summers ago. It's taken on a small peak that's 1 hour of walking from Bodø. The faintest mountains to the left are Lofoten, if you've heard of it.

 

[Doug_G]

Here's a different article with the same title:

Design News - Tesla's CEO: 'Half of Cars Will Be Electric in 15 Years'

 

[vfx]

Here's a different article with the same title:

Design News - Tesla's CEO: 'Half of Cars Will Be Electric in 15 Years'

That picture is not Elon Musk

 

[brianman]

Interesting how the word "new" was so cumbersome (OMG 4 characters!) to add to the title of the articles, even though it's a critical point in Elon's assertion.

 

[vfx]

Consumer reporter's take

http://www.clarkhoward.com/news/clark-howard/environment-energy/will-half-all-cars-be-electric-next-decade/nPzF4/

 

[KenEE]

For ev's to go mainstream some combination of range, charge time, charger availability, and cost must improve by more than 10x. Anyone who's been to a big Bucee's or Love's has seen 40-80+ gas pumps all busy with a line. (Imagine the lines if they needed 2x more time to fill up?)
I'm happy to contribute to progress by paying lots and putting up with inconvenience, but there's no way millions would or even could until battery tech has improved many times.

For me personally I need at least 2X what my P85 will give me just so I can drive my family to see their aunt in Fort Worth. (need approximately 300 miles going with traffic flow with AC and Radio blasting. Our ICE cars/suv accomplish this task easily on one tank and it five min to refill when needed.)

Not saying we won't get there.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

For ev's to go mainstream some combination of range, charge time, charger availability, and cost must improve by more than 10x.

PHEVs just need cheap batteries. Once you have cheap batteries, PHEVs will supplant a significant proportion of HEVs plus add more customers due to the more persuasive driving experience and better economics.

Remember that hybrid consideration is still increasing, as are sales in absolute terms, but economics and driving experience prevent purchase. Cheaper and larger batteries dealer with those issues.

Cheaper batteries also make BEVs like the LEAF and iMiev more economical making them more popular in multi-car households.

Once you get the momentum, society will adjust and charging will become a built-in norm in construction which will lead to a gradual increase in the number of people for whom a PEV becomes a possibility.

 

[KenEE]

Yah, PHEV's IMO are the only thing close to mainstream ready. Electric *most* of the time, but gas when you need it. (If the cost can come down as you say)

 

[vfx]

Long range and faster charging do not have to be the only change. Other factors will also push people to buy electric.

Purchase price of EVs will become on par with petrol cars. Fuel savings will factor big even at today's artificially low prices

$10 a gallon gasoline will have people rethinking what's important. Already people are simply driving less with gas a$4 a gal. A car for around town might just be Ok instead of buying a gas car for the "once a year" trip. (gas goes up 8% a year)

As other brands match Tesla performance numbers all Evs will be seen as supercars. It's tough to get anyone to race a Roadster. That begrudging of EV superiority will become acceptance.

EVs already hit most of the goals of luxury cars. quiet, rigid, smooth. High end marquees will have E-versions of top end cars to take advantage of EV characteristics.

 

[strider]

For me personally I need at least 2X what my P85 will give me just so I can drive my family to see their aunt in Fort Worth. (need approximately 300 miles going with traffic flow with AC and Radio blasting. Our ICE cars/suv accomplish this task easily on one tank and it five min to refill when needed.)

Many households in the US have 2 or more cars. What I tell people is that for nearly all of these families, all but 1 of those cars could be electric with today's technology. They then keep one of their ICE's for those long trips of for towing. We're going to keep our diesel Jeep Liberty for ski trips and for towing my motorcycle trailer. So I agree that being ICE free is still a ways away but we could dramatically increase EV adoption today - it's just a matter of educating people (and for some of course it's price and as vfx stated if gas prices rise the math gets easier).

 

[ckessel]

Many households in the US have 2 or more cars. What I tell people is that for nearly all of these families, all but 1 of those cars could be electric with today's technology. They then keep one of their ICE's for those long trips of for towing.

Even a bit further along those lines, I'm tempted to look into replacing my wife's car with a Volt (I'll have the S).

 

[cinergi]

I also suspect that charging @home will be an issue to solve for the cheaper EV's. I'd guess that that market has more people without a garage or even a parking space next to their house. Street parking ... rented apartment ... etc.

 

[Zzzz...]

Even a bit further along those lines, I'm tempted to look into replacing my wife's car with a Volt (I'll have the S).

Look at it right now! There are rumors of $250 a month no down payment leases for Volts in US... If she spend around that much on gas... Volt is a great car:smile: If most daily commutes are ~35 miles... And that would be a brand new car

 

[ckessel]

Look at it right now! There are rumors of $250 a month no down payment leases for Volts in US... If she spend around that much on gas... Volt is a great car:smile: If most daily commutes are ~35 miles... And that would be a brand new car

Yea, looking online it's mostly $300/month and ~1500 down. Her Mazda RDX is paid off though and we've got free oil changes for life on it so maintenance isn't bad. The Volt is going to be a lot smaller in passenger and cargo room, so I don't think it's going to happen. Still, it's something we're thinking about. Might go test drive a Volt this weekend.

 

[brianman]

Even a bit further along those lines, I'm tempted to look into replacing my wife's car with a Volt (I'll have the S).

Let us know in a few months how you like driving the Volt (while your wife drives the S).

 

[VolkerP]

Uhm, excuse me - the thread is titled "half of all new cars will be electric" - not "every new car will be half electric"

Volker

 

[KenEE]

As VolkerP points out, I was assuming the thread title was about electric only cars. If you interpret it as "has an electric motor somewhere in the drivetrain" then its a much easier goal.

Frankly, I think the Volt is the perfect car right now given the state of technologies. So we have Volt #242 leased at $270/mo. for a 15k mile/year lease. (it was $250 for 10 or 12k but we'll be lucky to not exceed 15k)

Originally the Volt was my car, but within less than two weeks it became my wife's car. ( NOT my decision ) But that was actually fine with me, because the Volt became basically "free" since it replaced her 100 gallon per month Expedition.

(So we'll see if my S remains MY S )

Actually our plan is to replace her Volt with the ELR. It should be available by the time the Volt's lease is up.

ckessel, you probably already know this, but make sure you put the Volt in SPORT MODE by pressing the mode button twice. It takes a Prius beater and turns it into a just-about-anything beater. It's really quite fun! (and < $1/day in electricity for us)

 

[Ken Edwards]

Don't forget that for most people it's not the cost of the car that's important, it's the monthly cost of the lease. Leasing electric cars for comparable rates as "campfire on wheels" vehicles (I love that phrase, thanks), will move people into the electric vehicle market. Things like residual value which affect the lease cost, and cost of maintenance and operation which come out of the buyer's pocket will seal the deal. Basically we're talking up front and monthly lease cost and range anxiety as the hurdles to clear. As battery technology matures further and current lithium-ion technology becomes "old" technology that can be bought for a song you'll see EVs in the $20,000 to $30,000 range. All we need is for early adopters like me and you to vote with our wallets to get there.

 

[neroden]

I have inside information, but I'm quite sure that the kWh per gram of energy storage devices will rise massively (by factors of 100) in the next 10 years, and I expect the cost per kWh to drop by a factor of 10 along with that.

Therefore I expect *all* new cars to be electric in 10 years. Probably all cars will be electric in 20 years except for "classics".